The Numbers Game: Carolina Hurricanes Edition
By Ger Devine
Mar 17, 2012; St. Paul, MN, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Matt Hackett (31), defenseman Tom Gilbert (77) and Clayton Stoner (4) and forward Nick Johnson (25) protect the puck from Carolina Hurricanes forward Tuomo Ruttu (15) and defenseman Jay Harrison (44) during the second period at the Xcel Energy Center. The Hurricanes defeated the Wild 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
In a new feature that I’ll be running here on Gone Puck Wild throughout the season, before each game, I will be analysing the underlying numbers for both the Wild and their next opponent to see how they match-up. Tonight’s opponent is the Carolina Hurricanes.
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-Here are the underlying numbers for both teams so far this year at 5v5 Close, along with some general statistics:
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WILD
HURRICANES
LEAGUE POSITION
15th 13th
HOME RECORD
3-0-2 1-1-1
ROAD RECORD
1-3-1 3-1-0
PP%
25.0%5th15.4%20th
PK%
74.4%27th81.8%15th
-5v5 CLOSE-
WILD
HURRICANES
GF%
60.0%9th45.0%18th
CF%
60.2%1st47.1%20th
FF%
61.1%1st55.2%25th
SF%
61.9%1st46.4%22nd
Sh%
4.4%29th7.3%19th
Sv%
95.2%5th92.3%13th
PDO
99.617th99.618th
(GF%=Goals For %, CF%=Corsi For %, FF%=Fenwick For %, SF%=Shots For Percentage, Sh%=
Shooting Percentage, Sv%=Save Percentage)
Both teams are in the middle of the standings, with the Wild having a strong home record while the Canes are good on the road. The Wild have simply outstanindg numbers across the board. Their Sv% is due for some regression to the mean, but they are still shooting below 5%, and will be scoring for fun once that progresses to the mean.
The Canes are a poor puck possession team who aren’t getting any really good luck or great special teams. but are still finding ways to grind out wins. I would expect them to have a really tough season if they keep playing like they are now. They may win a few in the short term, but getting out-possessed and out-shot is not a recipe for long-term success.
-Here are the Best 3 and Worst 3 players for each team in various statistical categories. This only counts players who have played 50% of their team’s games so far:
| 5v5 CLOSE | PLAYER #1 |
PLAYER #2
PLAYER #3
Wild CF% Top 3
STONER (69.7%)
BALLARD (67.7%)
PARISE (67.5%)
Wild CF% Worst 3
BRODIN (52.7%)
BRODZIAK (52.9%)
COOKE (53.6%)
Canes CF% Top 3
J.STAAL (54.9%)
GERBE (53.2%)
HAINSEY (53.2%)
Canes CF% Worst 3
SUTTER (38.5%)
HARRISON (41.5%)
MURPHY(43.2%)
Wild FF% Top 3
STONER (72.9%)
BALLARD (71.1%)
KOIVU (67.9%)
Wild FF% Worst 3
BRODIN (51.4%)
GRANLUND (52.6%)
HEATLEY (53.1%)
Canes FF% Top 3
HAINSEY (38.00%)
BELLEMORE (38.0%)
J.STAAL (39.5%)
Canes FF% Worst 3
HARRISON (43.5%)
SUTTER (44.7%)
LINDHOLM (44.9%)
Wild PDO Top 3
FONTAINE (116.7)
COOKE (112.6)
BRODZIAK (110.9)
Wild PDO Worst 3
VEILLEUX (83.3)
NIEDERREITER (90.9)
KONOPKA (91.7)
Canes PDO Top 3
HARRISON (107.5)
SKINNER (107.4)
DVORAK (106.1)
Canes PDO Worst 3
SUTTER (83.3)
BELLEMORE (88.9)
BOWMAN (89.5)
Stoner continues to be the best puck possession player in the league so far this season. Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu are tilting the ice in the Wild’s favour, big time. Jonas Brodin has been the Wild’s weakest puck possession player, and he’s still way above 50%. This team is incredible. Also, I must note. Mikael Granlund is making huge strides in his puck possession game and keeps climbing higher and higher.
Ron Hainsey was a favourite of the “stats guys” during the offseason and he went the entire offseason unsigned, before Carolina signed him to a PTO and then a 1-year contract. He is proving the stats right with his excellent possession numbers and goalscoring. Jordan Staal is getting it done, as are Bellemore and Gerbe.
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-Here are the Player Usage Charts for both teams to illustrate which players are getting tough minutes and which players are being sheltered:
Minnesota Wild
Carolina Hurricanes
(Click To Enlarge) (Bubble Size=Corsi On Rating. Blue Bubble=Postive. Red Bubble=Negative)
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Okay, that’s all from me. Make sure you check-out Scott’s official Gone Puck Wild Game Preview before puck-drop where you’ll get his insight along with all the information you need about the game.
Follow me on Twitter for more hockey views/analysis.
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*Numbers in this article courtesy of: