Mar 17, 2012; St. Paul, MN, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Matt Hackett (31), defenseman Tom Gilbert (77) and Clayton Stoner (4) and forward Nick Johnson (25) protect the puck from Carolina Hurricanes forward Tuomo Ruttu (15) and defenseman Jay Harrison (44) during the second period at the Xcel Energy Center. The Hurricanes defeated the Wild 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The Numbers Game: Carolina Hurricanes Edition

In a new feature that I’ll be running here on Gone Puck Wild throughout the season, before each game, I will be analysing the underlying numbers for both the Wild and their next opponent to see how they match-up. Tonight’s opponent is the Carolina Hurricanes.

(For more info about some of the stats and terms I use in these articles, check out my stats introduction piece).

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-Here are the underlying numbers for both teams so far this year at 5v5 Close, along with some general statistics:

 

WILD HURRICANES
LEAGUE POSITION  15th  13th
HOME RECORD  3-0-2  1-1-1
ROAD RECORD  1-3-1  3-1-0
PP% 25.0% 5th 15.4% 20th
PK% 74.4% 27th 81.8% 15th

-5v5 CLOSE-

WILD HURRICANES
GF% 60.0% 9th 45.0% 18th
CF% 60.2% 1st 47.1% 20th
FF% 61.1% 1st 55.2% 25th
SF% 61.9% 1st 46.4% 22nd
Sh% 4.4% 29th 7.3% 19th
Sv% 95.2% 5th 92.3% 13th
PDO 99.6 17th 99.6 18th
(GF%=Goals For %, CF%=Corsi For %, FF%=Fenwick For %, SF%=Shots For Percentage, Sh%=
Shooting Percentage, Sv%=Save Percentage)

Both teams are in the middle of the standings, with the Wild having a strong home record while the Canes are good on the road. The Wild have simply outstanindg numbers across the board. Their Sv% is due for some regression to the mean, but they are still shooting below 5%, and will be scoring for fun once that progresses to the mean.

The Canes are a poor puck possession team who aren’t getting any really good luck or great special teams. but are still finding ways to grind out wins. I would expect them to have a really tough season if they keep playing like they are now. They may win a few in the short term, but getting out-possessed and out-shot is not a recipe for long-term success.

 

-Here are the Best 3 and Worst 3 players for each team in various statistical categories. This only counts players who have played 50% of their team’s games so far:

 5v5 CLOSE

PLAYER #1

PLAYER #2

PLAYER #3

Wild CF% Top 3

STONER (69.7%)

BALLARD (67.7%)

PARISE (67.5%)

Wild CF% Worst 3

BRODIN (52.7%)

BRODZIAK (52.9%)

COOKE (53.6%)

Canes CF% Top 3

J.STAAL (54.9%)

GERBE (53.2%)

HAINSEY (53.2%)

Canes CF% Worst 3

SUTTER (38.5%)

HARRISON (41.5%)

MURPHY(43.2%)

Wild FF% Top 3

STONER (72.9%)

BALLARD (71.1%)

KOIVU (67.9%)

Wild FF% Worst 3

BRODIN (51.4%)

GRANLUND (52.6%)

HEATLEY (53.1%)

Canes FF% Top 3

HAINSEY (38.00%)

BELLEMORE (38.0%)

J.STAAL (39.5%)

Canes FF% Worst 3

HARRISON (43.5%)

SUTTER (44.7%)

LINDHOLM (44.9%)

Wild PDO Top 3

FONTAINE (116.7)

COOKE (112.6)

BRODZIAK (110.9)

Wild PDO Worst 3

VEILLEUX (83.3)

NIEDERREITER (90.9)

KONOPKA (91.7)

Canes PDO Top 3

HARRISON (107.5)

SKINNER (107.4)

DVORAK (106.1)

Canes PDO Worst 3

SUTTER (83.3)

BELLEMORE (88.9)

BOWMAN (89.5)

Stoner continues to be the best puck possession player in the league so far this season. Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu are tilting the ice in the Wild’s favour, big time. Jonas Brodin has been the Wild’s weakest puck possession player, and he’s still way above 50%. This team is incredible. Also, I must note. Mikael Granlund is making huge strides in his puck possession game and keeps climbing higher and higher.

Ron Hainsey was a favourite of the “stats guys” during the offseason and he went the entire offseason unsigned, before Carolina signed him to a PTO and then a 1-year contract. He is proving the stats right with his excellent possession numbers and goalscoring. Jordan Staal is getting it done, as are Bellemore and Gerbe.

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-Here are the Player Usage Charts for both teams to illustrate which players are getting tough minutes and which players are being sheltered:

Minnesota Wild

wild vs canes

Carolina Hurricanes

canes vs wild

(Click To Enlarge)  (Bubble Size=Corsi On Rating. Blue Bubble=Postive. Red Bubble=Negative)

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Okay, that’s all from me. Make sure you check-out Scott’s official Gone Puck Wild Game Preview before puck-drop where you’ll get his insight along with all the information you need about the game.

 

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey views/analysis.

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*Numbers in this article courtesy of:

-Extra Skater

-BehindTheNet.ca

-Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

-SomeKindOfNinja.com

-HockeyAbstract.com

Tags: 5v5 Advanced Stats Carolina Hurricanes Clayton Stoner Corsi Elias Lindholm Even-strength Fancystats Fenclose Fenwick Jonas Brodin Jordan Staal Kyle Brodziak Mikael Granlund Mikko Koivu Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild Preview NHL Pdo Ron Hainsey Statistics Wild Wild Game Night Zach Parise

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