Oct 24, 2013; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Minnesota Wild forward Nino Niederreiter (22) celebrates his goal during the first period against the Carolina Hurricanes at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The Numbers Game: Carolina Hurricanes Edition

In a new feature that I’ll be running here on Gone Puck Wild throughout the season, before each game, I will be analysing the underlying numbers for both the Wild and their next opponent to see how they match-up. Tonight’s opponent is the Carolina Hurricanes.

(For more info about some of the stats and terms I use in these articles, check out my stats introduction piece).

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-Here are the underlying numbers for both teams so far this year at 5v5 Close, along with some general statistics:

 

 

 WILD  HURRICANES
LEAGUE POSITION  11th  22nd
HOME RECORD  7-1-2  3-3-3
ROAD RECORD  2-3-2  3-4-0
PP% 25.4% 2nd 13.8% 22nd
PK% 77.3% 26th 81.0% 19th

-5v5 CLOSE-

 WILD  HURRICANES
CF% 54.6% 3rd 47.4% 24th
FF% 55.8% 4th 46.0% 26th
SF% 57.6% 1st 46.8% 24th
Sh% 7.5% 18th 4.6% 28th
Sv% 95.2% 2nd 91.9% 16th
PDO 102.7 7th 96.5 27th
(GF%=Goals For %, CF%=Corsi For %, FF%=Fenwick For %, SF%=Shots For Percentage, Sh%=
Shooting Percentage, Sv%=Save Percentage)

  • The Canes are down in the bottom 3rd of the league standings and don’t appear to be particularly good at anything judging by their poor puck possession numbers and special teams.
  • Their shooting percentage at 5v5 is way low and should regress to the mean over the course of the year.
  • Their Sv% is probably due for some regression too, but a lot of the reason why it’s so low is that, due to injuries to Ward and Khudobin, they have AHL level goaltending in net. Cam Ward is pretty bad anyway, but Justin Peters and Mike Murphy are a big step down.
  • The Wild are still really good at puck possession and scoring on the powerplay. They’re not good at killing penalties.
  • The Wild’s Sv% is due for some regression, but their Sh% is still way lower than it should be, so I would think as both percentages regress to the mean, the equilibrium will still mean the Wild scoring a lot of goals and not conceding many.

 

-Here are the Best 3 and Worst 3 players for each team in various statistical categories. This only counts players who have played 25% of their team’s games so far:

 5v5 CLOSE

PLAYER #1

PLAYER #2

PLAYER #3

MIN CF% Top 3

KOIVU (61.4%)

BALLARD (61.1%)

MITCHELL (61.1%)

MIN CF% Worst 3

BRODZIAK (46.6%)

COYLE (48.1%)

BRODIN (48.3%)

CAR CF% Top 3

SEMIN (54.1%)

J.STAAL (54.0%)

TLUSTY (50.8%)

CAR CF% Worst 3

WESTGARTH (35.9%)

     LINDHOLM (36.7%)         RUUTU (39.9%)
MIN FF% Top 3

BALLARD (64.0%)

STONER (63.5%)

MITCHELL (63.3%)

MIN FF% Worst 3

BRODIN (47.3%)

BRODZIAK (48.7%)

FONTAINE (50.0%)

CAR FF% Top 3

J.STAAL (53.8%)

SEMIN (52.4%)

BELLEMORE (50.6%)

CAR FF% Worst 3

LINDHOLM (33.3%)

WESTGARTH (34.5%)

DVORAK (39.0%)

MIN PDO Top 3

COOKE (111.4)

POMINVILLE (110.0)

BALLARD (110.0)

MIN PDO Worst 3

VEILLEUX (84.6)

KONOPKA (92.6)

MITCHELL (94.5)

CAR PDO Top 3

DVORAK (111.2)

SKINNER (109.8)

MALHOLTRA (107.7)

CAR PDO Worst 3

SUTTER (80.8)

RUUTU (85.4)

WESTGARTH (90.0)

 

  • Alex Semin and Jordan Staal seem to be driving the play for Carolina with some help from Tlusty and Bellemore.
  • Kevin Westgarth is a possession black hole (shocking!) and, young rookie, Lindholm seems to have had some issues. Radek Dvorak can still score goals, but he’s definitely not driving possession.
  • Brodziak and Brodin have notably sub-50% Corsi and Fenwick on a very strong puck possession team. They need to be better than that. I’ll be watching this situation closely.
  • Mikko Koivu: Still a beast.

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-Here are the Player Usage Charts for both teams to illustrate which players are getting tough minutes and which players are being sheltered:

Minnesota Wild

wild vs canes

  • Scandella, Brodziak and Cooke still have the toughest minutes.
  • The 4th line is taking on soft compeition and doing okay.

 

Carolina Hurricanes

canes vs wild

(Click To Enlarge)  (Bubble Size=Corsi On Rating. Blue Bubble=Postive. Red Bubble=Negative)

  • Brett Bellemore is killing it in tough minutes. Great numbers for him.
  • Ron Hainsey is proving to be a great signing (as everyone in the advanced stats community said he would be), taking on tough minutes and doing well.
  • Why is Kevin Westgarth in the NHL?

 

 

Okay, that’s all from me. Make sure you check-out the official Gone Puck Wild Game Preview before puck-drop where you’ll get some useful insight along with all the information you need about the game.

 

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey views/analysis.

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*Numbers in this article courtesy of:

-Extra Skater

-BehindTheNet.ca

-Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

-SomeKindOfNinja.com

-HockeyAbstract.com

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Tags: 5v5 Close Advanced Statistics Analysis Carolina Hurricanes Corsi Fancystats Fenclose Fenwick Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild Preview NHL Pdo Sh% Sv% Wild Wild Game Night

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