2014-15 Central Division Preview: St. Louis Blues

Anyone who has gone to a movie theater is familiar with the experience of previews as the major Hollywood studios try to woo audiences with trailers of future films.  Depending on the trailer you might be annoyed or you might see a preview that intrigues you.  Previews, not to be confused with spoilers give viewers a bit of a taste as what to expect.  Sports are not much different as media outlets do their best to try to predict personnel moves, outcomes, challenges, etc.

With all due respect to the Chicago Blackhawks, the St. Louis Blues are perhaps the team Wild fans fear the most these days in the gauntlet of pain that is the Central Division.  The Wild often look overwhelmed physically and in more recent years overwhelmed by the Blues’ tremendous collection of talent, size, and intimidating style.  But are the 2014-15 Blues as good as the 2013-14 version?

David Backes and T.J. Oshie form the core of a powerful Blues team poised to be among the Central Division elite yet again in 2014-15. Sep 25, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues teammates congratulate St. Louis Blues center David Backes (42) after scoring a goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the second period at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Tale of the Tape

2013-14 Stats

Record:  52-23-7 ~ 111pts

Power Play: 19.8% (5th)

Penalty Kill: 85.7% (2nd)

Corsi Close: 53.1% (7th)

Fenwick Close: 53.1% (7th)

Key Arrivals:  C, Paul Stastny; C, Jori Lehtera; D, Carl Gunnarsson

Key Departures:  G, Ryan Miller; C, Vladimir Sobotka; D, Roman Polak; C, Derek Roy; LW, Brenden Morrow

Why they’ll be better:  With stats like those from last year, the bar has been raised pretty high for St. Louis to reach those totals once again.  However, the addition of Paul Stastny to anchor the Blues’ 2nd line mean the 7th most potent offense in the NHL from a season ago just got even more dangerous.  While it is probably doubtful we’ll see Alex Steen have the blistering 1st half that made him Hart Trophy candidate last season, the Blues have plenty of other offensive weapons in its collection of power forwards like David Backes and T.J. Oshie.   Secondary scorers like former Colorado College star Jaden Schwartz (who just signed a 2-year, $4.7 million contract on Saturday), Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrik Bergland add to the nightmare opponents face as they try to figure out how to match up against such a well-balanced scoring attack.  All of these aforementioned forwards are capable of 20-25 goals, especially if they’re being used on a line being centered by Stastny.  The Blues are also all about puck possession and funneling the puck on goal as they all had Corsi Close percentages well above 50%.  Want another reason to be scared?  The Blues also have some very promising scoring forwards in their prospect pool too in Dmitrij Jaskin, Ty Rattie and 2014 1st round pick Robby Fabbri waiting for their opportunity and give St. Louis plenty of internal options in case they lose a member of their Top 6.

On the blueline, the Blues are a near perfect blend of size, strength and skill with Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester and Kevin Shattenkirk leading the way.   Pietrangelo (51 points) and Shattenkirk (45 points) are 24 and 25 years old respectively, meaning they are just starting to come into their prime.  Bouwmeester has re-established himself as one of the better two-way defenseman in the league since joining the Blues in 2012-13.   With the team able to create so much pressure in and around the crease with its collection of big-bodied forwards means they will continue to have opportunities to generate quality shots from the point.  The addition of Carl Gunnarsson gives the Blues another capable puck mover as well as a player who can prevent its top 3 from being over worked.  Former Calder trophy winner, Barret Jackman provides the toughness and veteran leadership to this group rounding out the blueline to make it both stifling and offensively potent.

Is Brian Elliott ready to be the go-to guy in the crease for the Blues? Sep 25, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Brian Elliott (1) makes a save against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the first period at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Why they’ll be worse:  The Ryan Miller experiment was a complete failure, and it was an expensive one too.  Shipped off to Buffalo last season was Jaroslav Halak, power forward Chris Stewart, promising prospect William Carrier and a 1st round pick in 2015 and a 3rd round pick in 2016.  Miller and Halak’s departure means the baton has been handed over to Brian Elliott to shoulder most of the workload between the pipes after having a decent season (18-6-2, 1.96GAA, .922% save percentage).  The Blues have been especially dominant during the regular season employing a 2-headed monster combination in the crease.  It seems unlikely the Blues are going to continue that rotation as Jake Allen has only been above average in the American Hockey League the last 3 seasons.   The Ottawa Senators once felt Elliott was ready to be its #1 goaltender and that ended with a 13-19 record back in 2010-11.  Beyond some unforseen free agency move there is no ‘Plan C’ if Elliott and Allen can’t provide the Blues with solid enough play in the crease.

The other area of concern for St. Louis is a lack of toughness on their blueline.  The team let Roman Polak enter free agency, where he was a significant source of toughness and grit in the defensive zone.  He was the type of defenseman opponents hate to play against because he was always looking to staple them into the boards and even though Pietrangelo can have his chippy moments he is not a punishing player like Polak was.  When you consider the elite teams in the Western Conference let alone the Central Division losing a mean, stay-at-home defenseman like Polak means St. Louis just got a little softer in its own end.  Also lost this summer was the pesky but surprisingly physical Vladimir Sobotka who bolted for big money in the KHL.  Sobotka used his low-center of gravity and his stocky frame to its fullest advantage as he caught opposing forwards off guard with big hits.  He was a natural defensive forward who had an agitating presence as the skilled players of opposing teams didn’t have the speed to get away from him and his physical style often ended up drawing foolish retaliation penalties.  The departures of Polak and Sobotka mean the Blues just got a little easier to play against.

How do the Wild stack up against the Blues in 2014-15?  The Wild might match up a bit better against St. Louis than they did a season ago.  Toughness has always been the biggest advantage of the Blues, but with a few aforementioned subtractions to their lineup from a season ago I think the Wild are well-suited to take advantage of the situation.  Last year the Wild lost 4 out of the 5 games against the Blues, including no victories in St. Louis.  If there is a psychological hurdle for the Wild to exercise, it is to find a way to have some success in St. Louis.  I think they are certainly capable, and in the past the team has managed to overcome hostile territory before after long losing streaks in Edmonton, Colorado, Calgary and others.  The Wild have a lineup that features plenty of speed and I think that will be their best weapon against St. Louis.  The Wild play the Blues just 4 times in the regular season, and coincidentally all of them are played on a Saturday.

Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues 2014-15 (all times Central)

November 29th (Home) @ 7:00PM

March 14th (Away) @ 7:00PM

March 21st (Home) @ 1:00PM

April 11th (Away) @ 6:30PM

Bottom Line:  I don’t think there is any doubt the St. Louis Blues are a playoff team and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.  Yet it won’t be how well this team does during the regular season that will define whether its a success or not.  It’s all about the post-season play, and early round disappointments like being bounced from the playoffs in the opening round by Chicago last season only serves to add pressure to a team that is already feeling it.  Blues Head Coach Ken Hitchcock has a bit of a history as a 3-year wonder and if ultimate success hasn’t been realized the disciplined system his teams employ usually start to show cracks.  Well folks, its year 3 since he took over for Davis Payne back in November of 2011.  If the Blues cannot advance to the Western Conference finals or beyond you have to wonder if the club’s brass decides to try a different approach from the current bench boss.

Prediction:  2nd in Central Division, 114 points.