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What Bill Guerin’s Quiet Deadline Means for the Future of the Wild Roster

By Lake Martin

ST PAUL, MINNESOTA - OCTOBER 20: Zach Parise #11 of the Minnesota Wild celebrates a goal against the Montreal Canadiens during the game at Xcel Energy Center on October 20, 2019 in St Paul, Minnesota. The Wild defeated the Canadiens 4-3. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
ST PAUL, MINNESOTA - OCTOBER 20: Zach Parise #11 of the Minnesota Wild celebrates a goal against the Montreal Canadiens during the game at Xcel Energy Center on October 20, 2019 in St Paul, Minnesota. The Wild defeated the Canadiens 4-3. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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Jonas Brodin/Matt Dumba

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 19: Matt Dumba #24 and Jonas Brodin #25 of the Minnesota Wild during the third period of the NHL game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on December 19, 2019, in Glendale, Arizona. The Wild defeated the Coyotes 8-5. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 19: Matt Dumba #24 and Jonas Brodin #25 of the Minnesota Wild during the third period of the NHL game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on December 19, 2019, in Glendale, Arizona. The Wild defeated the Coyotes 8-5. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

The grim reality of our second pairing defensive pairing is that their great performance is going to directly cause their departure from the team.

Last season, Matt Dumba took the league by storm with his explosive shots and bone-crushing hits but has regressed this season after his ruptured pectoral.

Dumba looks like the same player though, aggressive, offensive-minded, attacking. He’s skilled, skates well, and can open up the ice for his teammates. His game demands attention. Perhaps the book is just out on his ability.

Jonas Brodin doesn’t put up significant numbers, doesn’t get in the box score too much, but my goodness he plays phenomenal defense and he’s a statistical sweetheart.

When Brodin is on the ice, the Wild have scored fifty-four goals (Brodin only has scored twice this season and has nineteen assists) and opponents have only scored forty-four goals. In comparison, Dumba has been on the ice for the same number of goals for the Wild, but opponents have scored thirteen more goals when Dumba’s on the ice than Brodin- and Brodin has more ice time this season.

A significant part of what makes Brodin great isn’t even seen on the stat sheet- his skating ability is spectacular. It’s what makes his defense so good. He’s always in the right spot at the right time and is a workhorse for this squad- regularly working on the penalty kill, overtimes, and crunch time late in games.

The reason for Dumba or Brodin’s departure: The Seattle Expansion Draft… kinda

Under the Expansion draft rules, teams can protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie OR eight skaters and a goalie, and it’s almost certain that Minnesota would go the first route. Teams are required to protect players that have No Move Clauses, so that would mean Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Zach Parise (if he were still with the team, will address later), and Mats Zuccarello. It means one of Brodin, Dumba, Carson Soucy (RFA this year, will get resigned), Brad Hunt, or Greg Pateryn will have to be exposed for the new Seattle Team to potentially take.

Matt Dumba is scheduled to earn an AAV of $6,000,000 for the next three years and Jonas Brodin has one more year of $4,166,166. If the Wild want to keep Brodin, they’ll likely extend him in the offseason.

It’s very unlikely that the Wild make another trade with an expansion draft team to protect a player like with Vegas, so it’s quite likely the Wild trade Matt Dumba or Jonas Brodin to ensure they get value for their departure. I’m certain every team would be moderately interested in either of these defensemen, it’s a question of price.

This season, Bill Guerin was fairly public on the price he would want for either individual, top two line center and a 1st round draft pick/very good prospect. Florida and Carolina were two teams interested in Brodin at the deadline, but neither pulled the trigger. In the offseason, the entire league will have the opportunity to make their pitches, rather than just playoff contending teams. I imagine that the price will remain around that value unless a unique deal arose- like maybe an elite center disenchanted by the trajectory of their current franchise…

Teams (likely) Seriously Interested: BUF, CAR, CBJ, CGY, FLA, NYR, TOR, WPG

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