Will Mikael Granlund’s Possession Numbers Improve?
By the end of last season Mikael Granlund had started to deliver what Wild fans had hoped he would when he was drafted ninth overall in 2010. Over the summer some have even posited that Granlund should be the top line center and/or the center on first power play unit over captain Mikko Koivu.
Koivu is often a punching bag for the quick-to-judge, but his defenders — implacable, handsome, mustachioed, occasionally named Dustin — will point to his possession (not to mention overall defensive skills and face-off percentage) as a reason that he still is and should be the top line center. Koivu had the highest Corsi For % (CF%) on the team last season at 56.2% and was one of only four forwards on the team with a positive CF%. None of the other three were named Mikael Granlund.
On Possession
The Wild have possession problems they need to fix to be a Stanley Cup-bound team. They ranked 22nd in the league last season and while they won a playoff round, they won it against a team that ranked 25th in the league in possession and had the lowest CF% in the Western Conference playoffs. Yet, the still struggled to win on the road against them. (Winning on the road is another problem that they need to sort if they want to go to the Cup.) In the second round the Wild played the team with the second best possession stats in the league and it showed. They couldn’t win on the road and while they managed to hang with them, they were outmatched.
While possession isn’t the only problem the Wild have had or will have, it’s a big red flag on a team that has been as goal-starved as they’ve been and especially notbale when you’re playing in a conference with the two possession heavyweights in the league.
Granlund is a great player, but Wild fans who recognize the possession problems at play for the team have to wonder if he can help the Wild bridge the gap to becoming a positive possession team. Granlund’s CF% ranked 11th on the team, seventh among forwards at 47.9%. I’m setting aside his zone starts and other factors, because it’s not likely, at least from where we sit at this early stage of the season, that his role changes much this year and he needs to be a positive possession player no matter what his deployment is.
Granlund’s CF% is even a little more worrisome when you look at how he fared with and without Jason Pominville, one of the four Wild forwards with a positive CF% and the player Granlund spent the most minutes on ice with. When they’re together Granlund’s CF% is 52%. Solid. Without Pominville, Granlund’s CF% is 33.1%. Miserable. His Goals For % (GF%) is also terrible without Pominville. Granlund’s GF% with Pominville is a very strong 64.3%, but without him it’s an abysmal 20%. (Overall it’s 52.6%, which isn’t bad.)
But, But, But
But, anyone who watched the games night-in and night-out had to have the impression, whether based in statistics or not, that Granlund seemed to get better almost every night. In the midst of that perceived improvement was the Olympic break where Granlund was elected to the All Star team. Then the playoffs hit and he was great. He even had positive possession numbers in the playoffs with a CF% 54.45.
You can even see that improvement in some raw totals. He scored eight goals over 63 games last season. That rate increased in the playoffs, where he scored four in 13. You can even see that increased production in-season. Five of his eight goals came over the final 22 regular season games he played.
So with that bit of “feeling” from watching the games and increased production in raw totals, can we find a silver lining that gives fans hope that Granlund may improve this season and help the team become a positive possession team? Actually, we might.
This graph displays Granlund’s CF% per game over the course of last season, both regular season and playoff games. (This graph excludes the November 27 game where Granlund only played 29 seconds before leaving the game with an injury.)
Mikael Granlund’s CF% per game
Beyond the fact that after a summer of training last year, Granlund came back a vastly improved player and we could speculate that we could potentially see that kind of leap again, there is this. The trend line shows a player whose possession game was improving over the course of the season. For the first 2/3 of the season he would fall below a CF% of 40% regularly. From the 48th game he played through the end of the playoffs that only happened three times. He was steadily improving his possession game.
The trend line is interesting, though it’s certainly problematic to draw too big of conclusions. There are a lot of factors, from injuries to teammates, line changes, and small portions of a season that could be interpreted as a trend really being a small sample size. Nonetheless, there’s reason to believe that Granund’s possession game was improving and could improve to the point where he helps the Wild turn around last season’s possession numbers, which were not the numbers of a team bound for the Stanley Cup.