Statistics provide a mixed message as to how good the 2014-15 Wild are
By Derek Felska
Its getting close to the end of the 1st quarter at my school. That means its all about the grades and students and teachers are soon about to find out what their final grade is for the course. So if you have a student who does pretty well on their homework and projects it would be logical that they’d ace the final exam right? Not always, and as a teacher you ask yourself how did that happen? Did they just figure their grade was good enough and didn’t try that hard on the final? The same is true of the student that was doing very poorly in class and suddenly aces the final? The test scores can give you a mixed story when you compare it to the rest of their body of work. For the 2014-15 Minnesota Wild, the statistics provide a confusing tale of strengths and weaknesses.
One thing I learned when I got my Master’s degree and did my research study is that statistics can be spun anyway the researcher wants them to. Now I realize that we have a very limited sample size and it is quite possible things could change but roughly 10-games into the season the club has shown some interesting trends. So what do the statistics indicate about this Minnesota Wild team?
Zach Parise again leads the Wild in shots on goal early in the 2014-15 season. Oct 28, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Minnesota Wild left wing Zach Parise (11) scores a goal on Boston Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask (40) during the third period at TD Banknorth Garden. The Minnesota Wild won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Before I begin, if you’re not sure what Corsi or Fenwick numbers are just click on the hyper linked names for simple definitions of both.
Minnesota’s Corsi and Fenwick ratings have improved a lot since last year – In fact, I might not be giving this as much credit as some may feel it deserves. It wasn’t that long ago that the Wild were an absolutely awful team in regards to puck possession. This article from 2012 from Kukla’s Korner tells the story of the Wild’s halcyon days of being a careless with the puck and fans can probably recall memories of the futility of dumping the puck deep as soon as they can and watching it turn into an easy giveaway time after time. Now you get NHL.com trumpeting the Wild’s success as a puck possession team. According to HockeyAnalysis.com, the Wild are 3rd in the NHL with 59.6 rating in Corsi For 60 minutes of ice time. Compare that to last year’s team rating of 48.2 which was good for 29th. The same is true of the team’s Fenwick For 60 minutes of ice time score as the Wild are currently in 2nd with a 48.2 rating compared to its 35.7 rating which was again good for 29th in the league. So what does this mean?
It means the Wild are holding onto the puck more, directing a ton more shots towards the goal and then giving up very little in the way of shots against. Minnesota currently ranks 2nd in the league in shots per game with an average of 35.6 taken, and is 1st in the league in shots against with 23.2 fired at their own goal per night.
The Twist: The Wild pull off this positive puck possession with the 21st ranked team faceoff percentage, winning just 48.4% of its draws. That means this team is winning lots of puck battles to get the puck back but once it has the biscuit it is spending lots of time creating offensive chances and stifling their opponents in the process. Last season the Wild were one of the better teams on faceoffs, finishing 2013-14 season 13th with a 50.9%. Considering we know the team’s lousy Corsi and Fenwick ratings for last year, you would’ve expect the Wild to have been far better in the realm of puck possession and this would indicate a team that was pretty ineffective with the puck, especially when you factor in that Minnesota gave up the 5th fewest amount of shots last season. So now the Wild are below average in faceoffs but their possession numbers are among the best in the league. Odd, but true.
Minnesota leads the league in goal differential at even strength – The Minnesota Wild currently are 1st in the NHL in goal differential at even strength, scoring 2.08 goals more than they give up. Most teams are happy to just be a goal ahead of their opponents per night while Minnesota has given themselves a nice cushion to work with in most games this season. Last season the Wild finished 8th in this category having scored a more modest 1.15 more goals at even strength than they gave up. The Wild are 4th in the NHL with a 3.33 goals against average which has actually started to climb a bit again after this most recent road trip. Perhaps its because the team recognizes its 30th ranked power play (0 for 27 through 9 games) isn’t getting it done so they know they must be as assertive as they can be at even strength.
The Twist: The Wild have managed to amp up their offense with a team that does not have a single player among the top 50 in the league in scoring. Remember, the Wild are 4th in the NHL in scoring right now but the team’s top scorer Zach Parise is 58th in the league in points (8 points in 9 games) and its top goal scorer Jason Zucker is tied for 15th. This means the Wild is scoring by committee and that while they lack stand out offensive star like Anaheim’s Corey Perry who just notched his 10th goal of the season last night, they’ve managed to stay near the top of the league in that category. When you toss in the fact that high-priced free agent Thomas Vanek has yet to register a goal for the Wild it makes the feat all that more impressive. A cynic would say Minnesota has done this with smoke and mirrors but its also another indicator of the Wild’s much-improved depth as a team.
"“You can draw whatever you want up on the board, but it’s only as good as the players executing it.” ~ Wild Head Coach Mike Yeo after the Wild’s 4-3 win over Boston"
The Wild’s Power Play is bad, but it actually could be worse – Now before anyone accuses me of ignoring the fact the team is the only one in the league right now who has yet to score a power play goal, I will admit its impossible for the number of goals the Wild have on the man advantage to go below zero. With Minnesota’s lack of success on the power play some fans have wondered if the team would be better off if they could decline penalties. However, the power play can be worse if you consider the amount of shots on goal (i.e. potential chances to score) generated from it and compared to last year there are signs of improvement.
The Twist: Last season the Wild were 25th in the league in shots on goal while on the man advantage, compared to this season where they are currently in 10th. So at the very least the team is putting some pressure on their opponents during a power play. We could not say the same last season, where the team was frequently kept from registering a single shot on goal. I would argue that while the team has not managed to find the back of the net on the power play, the fact it is even creating token pressure as opposed to complete futility. I know this has been said many times, but considering this unit is shooting so much more if it ever catches fire the Wild really could be putting their opponents in a world of hurt on the scoreboard.
I think part of what makes Minnesota an intriguing story that as good as they have been thus far, there is room for improvement. As scary as that may be to the rest of the league, we may not have seen this club at its best yet. That in itself would put the Wild in uncharted territory, as a team to be feared.