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Minnesota Wild: Dubnyk Will Start Less in 2016-17

By Danny Lambert

Apr 16, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) faces the Dallas Stars attack during the second period of game two of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 16, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) faces the Dallas Stars attack during the second period of game two of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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Devan Dubnyk had a solid yet busy season as he started 67 of 81 regular season games for the Wild.  With a new coach and Dubnyk now starting his journey into his 30s, could he see his number of starts reduced in 2016-17?

Devan Dubnyk had a milestone offseason as the Minnesota Wild netminder turned 30.  The Wild’s savior of the 2014-15 campaign has logged a ton of minutes over his time in Minnesota, and looks to possibly have his minutes reduced this upcoming season.  As he moves squarely into his 30s many are starting to wonder if Dubs will have the strength and durability to continue to take on so much playing time, and a changing coaching situation could make for a situation whereby he sees less starts in net.

So big was last season that Dubs logged in 67 regular season games last season, and 6 playoff games on top of that.  That seems crazy considering the Wild have battle tested back-up Darcy Kuemper who could easily start more, and people around the State of Hockey have started to wonder if Dubnyk’s playing time will be reduced a bit this season?

This is a tricky question to answer.   Rule number one of a successful team seems to be “Thou Shall ride one hot starting goaltender…till said starting goaltender lets in too many or taps out”.  Teams that have split goaltender time equally seem to have an issues arise with consistency and controversy.  Think about St. Louis’ former situation with Brian Elliot and Jake Allen where both netminders logged about equal minutes and it seemed that the distraction for Coach Ken Hitchcock was always having to justify who he was playing in net.

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A declared starter who plays big minutes gives the team some consistency, provided that goaltender is consistent in their play.  Bottom line is you know what you’ll get night-in and night-out and the defense can build around that.

A better question rather than should Kuemper make more starts, is should does Kuemper making more starts give the Wild a chance to win more games?  The answer right now is probably no.  Last season Kuemper posted a 6-7-5 record, and in his last 11 starts Kuemper was 2-7-1 to include 4 straight losses to end the season.

Dec 15, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Darcy Kuemper (35) makes a save in the first period against the Vancouver Canucks at Xcel Energy Center. The Minnesota Wild beat the Vancouver Canucks 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 15, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Darcy Kuemper (35) makes a save in the first period against the Vancouver Canucks at Xcel Energy Center. The Minnesota Wild beat the Vancouver Canucks 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /

That’s not setting the world on fire and makes you wonder if he’s actually turned the corner from the disaster of the 2014-15 season.  Consistency just hasn’t found its way into Kuempers’ game.  He seems to be either extremely good when he wins or extremely bad when he loses leaving very little middle ground needed for a consistent game.  The breakdown of last season shows that when Kuemper won he posted excellent numbers of .968 save percentage, with a stingy 0.91 goals against average, and two shutouts.  When he lost however, Kuemper’s numbers were .880 save percentage and a 3.41 goals against.

Dubnyk offers the Wild more consistency in net with more of a middle ground.  That really means that Dubnyk kept the Wild in more games because when they lost it was by not as much and gave the team more chances to even the score with their opponent.  He was a little worse than Kuemper in stats while winning as his save percentage was .943 and his goals against were 1.62.  But in loosing Dubs was better than Kuemper with a save percentage of .888 and a goals against of 3.22.

Furthermore, Dubnyk had a winning record in the regular season despite the midseason down turn that Wild went through in January and February.  His 32-26-6 record is very good considering the goal support and defense from his teammates was very weak at times.  Yet still Dubnyk was able to keep the Wild in a position to win almost every night considering that in his losing efforts half of them games by a one goal defect.

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Still for all of those stats the final decision authority on how many games Dubnyk will start is Bruce Boudreau.  In virtually all of his NHL seasons Boudreau’s starting goaltenders have started somewhere around 50 games.  So the 67 games that Dubnyk started last year will certainly not be repeated this season.  And if history is an indication Kuemper will most likely get at least 10-15 more starts this season.

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Kuemper is talented enough to handle the increased workload, but as we’ve seen in the past he might not be up to it.  However, if he wants to even have a chance of becoming an NHL starter he’ll need to make the best of that increase and find some consistency.  For Dubnyk he may be the better choice statistically, but the rest will do his aging large frame some good.  So bottom line, Boudreau will most likely have Dubs in a ball cap on the end of the bench a few more times this season than he was last season.

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