Analyzing the Unrestricted Free Agent Pool According to Minnesota Wild’s Needs

If you told me on December 1st, 2018 that the Minnesota Wild (14-9-2 at the time) would finish dead last in the Central Division, I would have politely disagreed.

St. Louis was in the midst of one of their worst starts in franchise history, and Chicago’s terrorizing of Minnesota was now just a fading memory. that, and the angst of the executives of the Dallas Stars growing dissatisfaction with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn would become public by the end of the month. The Wild were 6-3 in Central Division Collections (Good for 3rd at the time), Matt Dumba was healthy, and Nino was still on the Wild. The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe listed the Wild as the Third Best Team in the NHL.

Things weren’t good. They were great.

We know the story from there. Dumba and Koivu get hurt, Paul Fenton moves fan favorites, and the Wild fall short of the postseason. While it is a shame the Wild don’t get to contend for Lord Stanley, they do get to reinforce their future with a 12th overall draft pick. Also, after signing RFAs, they will have about $12 million to make splashes in the Unrestricted Free Agent market. I’ve made it my cross to bear to analyze and assess the top 15 (plus noteworthy mentions) UFAs, according to my scoring matrix.

More from Gone Puck Wild

• Defenseman Matt Dumba signs one-year contract with Arizona
• Minnesota Wild reach agreement with Brandon Duhaime on one-year contract
• Minnesota Wild receive mixed grades for picks in NHL Entry Draft
• Minnesota Wild draft heavy on centers and home-state selections
• Minnesota Wild open regular season at home against Stanley Cup Finalist

Before going into the scoring rubric, I must address a few liberties I took while compiling this list. First, I viewed the UFA signing period as a closed market. Teams won’t trade with one another,  so Fenton won’t move anyone (such as Jason Zucker or Jared Spurgeon), but the UFAs still have autonomy on where they end up signing. Building off that, I removed certain positions from the list. I excluded defensemen from the process, as the Wild are not losing any of the top 6 defensemen that started the season (should be noted that Brad Hunt, Anthony Bitteto, and Nate Prosser are all UFAs, likely only one will be resigned).

Yes, it would be nice to sign Erik Karlsson. Is it likely, given the depth at the position? Not at all. The other position excluded was Goalies. Devan Dubnyk’s contract expires in 2020-2021, Stalock past that, and Kaapo Kahkonen and Mat Robson (Ski-U-Mah) are both RFAs after 2019-2020. A high-profile goalie is not a concern for the Wild right now.

I’ve centered the Rubric’s Criteria around the Wild’s main concern: Scoring. The Wild finished with 211 Goals For, putting them 33 goals below the League Average, and 27 out of 31 in the league, ahead of the Dallas Stars and Phoe-ahem-Arizona Coyotes (tied with 209 goals), Los Angeles Kings (199 goals), and the Anaheim Ducks (196 goals). I designed the rubric around rewarding UFAs that scored more goals, contributed assists, and are in a desirable age range. Other statistics, characteristics, and intangibles/author bias measured include games played last season, average time on ice, handedness, my perception of the likelihood they come to the Wild, and my personal opinion of the player.

This figure provides a comprehensive understanding of my scoring rubric

I’ll be revealing the top 15 in groups of 3 over the next couple of days; for today, I am showcasing the Honorable and Dishonorable Mentions from the UFA pool and my scoring process.

Honorable Mentions

Jason Pominville (62.5 Points)

The former Wild winger finished almost in the exact middle of the max score, scoring well for being a right-handed shot and the number of games he played last year, but scoring poorly for his average Time on Ice (12:29), his goals and assists (16G,14A), and his age (35). The Buffalo winger could be useful for the Wild, adding a depth scoring threat and a reliable mentor to our baby-faced core, but when it mattered most, Pominville was unable to finish in his first stint with the Wild. From when he joined the Wild in the 2012-2013 season, to when he was moved with Marco Scandella (stud) for Marcus Foligno (stud) and Tyler Ennis (dud) after the 2016-2017 season, he scored 9 goals in 36 postseason games, including two playoff runs in which he scored zero goals.

Pominville’s last contract had an AAV of $5.6 Million that lasted for 5 years. At 35, and with declining production, it is sensible to believe Pominville’s next contract will be worth significantly less, likely around the 2-3 year length and an AAV of $1.2Mil to $2.3Mil. However, I don’t believe Paul Fenton will be actively pursuing Pominville. Fenton would be working against the narrative he’s been pushing in St. Paul– that the Wild are getting younger and faster and are looking to build for deeper, long runs in the playoffs. I am also hesitant to believe Pominville would want to join the Wild, as he had a no-trade clause when he resigned with the Wild in 2014, but waived it to return to Buffalo. My best guess is he resigns with Buffalo or retires, and awaits to see if 29 will get raised to the rafters at KeyBank Center.

But it could be nice to have him. Who can forget this ripper over Corey Crawford at TCF Bank Stadium?

Jordan Shroeder (52.5 pts)

Remember when Jordan Shroeder, Chris Stewart, and Tyler Graovac were running the fourth line together? They were oddly effective. Stewart and Graovac were the big bodies wearing down the opposition and Shroeder possessed the electric speed that created opportunities for his linemates. Since leaving the Wild, Shroeder has bounced around different AHL teams, did not play a game in an NHL jersey last season, and thus scores poorly for games played, goals/assists, and time on ice. But he is still young (27), he’s fast, and he’s right-handed.

His last contract was 2 years in length and had an AAV of $1.3Mil. It wouldn’t be a bad gamble; if he works out, he retains a spot in Minnesota, if not he can be sent to Iowa. If Paul Fenton and Bruce Boudreau plan on leaving the new core mostly together, it would open up the opportunity to place Zucker and Shroeder on a line together. Imagine that speed.

Brian Boyle (53.5 pts)

I see no future in which Brian Boyle joins the Wild; he doesn’t really solve the issue of our lack of scoring. But, imagine Boyle and Marcus Foligno on a line together. Absolutely absurd. So many checks finished, a whole lot of grit, and a lot of guts. Throw Jordan Greenway on that line, you have 3 tall, large men. Kind of fun to think about.

Kurtis Gabriel (32.5 pts)

Same as Brian Boyle. Also this clip. Also 4 fights in 6 games with the Wild in 2016. Yeah, he got bodied. But he did it for the team.