What Should the Minnesota Wild Expect from a Full Season of Kevin Fiala?
Kevin Fiala arrived in St. Paul at the trade deadline in an effort for the team to get younger, faster, and less expensive. He was touted as a player with game-breaking potential, but in his nineteen games in a Wild sweater, he only had three goals and four assists. For eighty-two games, he would be on pace for about 13 goals and 17 assists; hardly “game-breaking”. In Nashville, he would consistently get second-line minutes, meaning his lack of production wasn’t entirely because of a lack of opportunity. Yet, he’s posted some impressive years with Nashville. So what should we expect out of the Swiss winger in his first full year as a member of the Minnesota Wild?
Well, it’s a small sample size.
Which isn’t uncommon from a first-round draft pick that isn’t selected first through fifth overall. Look at Matthew Boldy. He’s being touted as the next Mikko Rantanen, and he might not put on a Minnesotan Wild sweater until 2022. Boldy will develop at college for at least a year (could be as long as all four years he would be at Boston College, depending on his progression and the state of the State of Hockey), which isn’t what Kevin Fiala did.
Fiala played his first NHL game in the 2014-2015 season. That would be the only NHL game he played that year. The rest of his games would be played for the Milwaukee Admirals (AHL), HV71 (Swiss League), or the Swiss Under-20 team.
2015-2016 wasn’t much different. He played about two-thirds of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals and the other third with the Nashville Predators when it came to the final leg of the season.
In 2016-2017, Kevin Fiala proved to David Poile (Preds GM) that he deserved a spot in the Preds lineup. He played only 22 games in Milwaukee before playing the rest of his season in Nashville.
During his two extended stints with the Admirals, Fiala was producing just under PPG, which is nearing game-breaking status.
In 2017-2018, he posted 23 goals and 25 assists through 80 games- one season after his playoffs were cut short because he fractured his left femur. For those not caught up on your anatomy, the femur is one of the biggest bones in your body, tied only with your other femur. Seeing such a positive rebound after a devastating injury was truly awe-inspiring.
Before he got traded last season, the Preds were stricken by the injury bug but weren’t convinced that was the entirety of there ailments. They didn’t feel like they were getting the max output from their Sensational Swiss Star and decided to change it up. It just so happened that Poile’s protege had just received a job in St. Paul, and David decided that he was the perfect target to fleece. He somehow sold Paul Fenton that Mikael Granlund for Kevin Fiala was a perfect 1 for 1 ‘hockey’ trade and shipped Fiala out. Post-trade, neither side has outright won the deal. Neither player performed on par with what they had previously accomplished. But with Kevin Fiala only being 23, I am willing to bet that he will rebound quicker and more successfully than Granlund. But to make sure I fully dove into Kevin Fiala’s potential, I asked someone who saw Fiala as a prospect what his potential might be.
Recently, Damiano Cansani from leadingsport.com (@LSportCH on Twitter) reached out to learn what fans of the Swiss Professional Hockey team, Geneva Servette, could expect from former Wild player Eric Fehr. After giving him a scouting report, I asked what Kevin Fiala was like when he was a prospect in the Swiss league, what his role is for the Swiss National Team, and what Wild fans should expect in his first full year with the team. Here’s what he had to say:
Well, I follow him mostly when he plays for the Swiss National team. They can expect a very fast, agile, gritty offensive forward who can score goals. I mean, his shot is very good and accurate. His size is not impressive (surely, you noticed that already), but thanks to his “never give up” attitude he can stand up to bigger opponents and oftentime fool them. On the downside, when he plays for Switzerland I have the impression that he doesn’t work hard enough when it comes to defensive play… and I can assume he’s not a great penalty killer either, since he never plays during PK situations. Anyway, if you have Fiala in your team, you have a very good forward who, moreover, has extensive room for improvement, he’s only 23 after all. And despite his young age, he is already experienced. Finally, he never refuses to play for the Swiss national team when the coach calls him and that proves his love for this beautiful sport.
Fiala has a sick shot that I don’t think he uses enough for it to get serious respect in the league, something he could learn from Ryan Donato. Damiano brings up an important point. Fiala doesn’t seem entirely committed to the defensive side of the game. Last season Kevin Fiala was -11 with the Preds and -12 with the Wild which is a career-worst. It’s unlikely it will ever be nearly as low, but it has cause for concern. If you recall, Fiala never backchecked hard (at least never as hard as this Jared Spurgeon backcheck) and would frequently turn the puck over in the neutral zone or just inside the blue line, which would put situations Fiala would need to backcheck hard and cause odd-man rushes for the other team. I’m convinced last season was an outlier. With reports that Fiala could start the season with Kunin and Parise, I have a tough time believing he makes this bad outlier a consistent trend.
Alright, stop me if you heard this already about a different Minnesota Wild forward.
Kevin Fiala will enter the year motivated as ever to go on a tear and prove his worth to his team.
Sound like Jason Zucker, Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Dumba?
It should. This team was fairly embarrassed by the end of the year, and if there is anything professionals hate, it is being embarrassed. Several Wild players are entering the year looking to have a career season, which is why I don’t think projections that the Minnesota Wild are going to be abysmal are accurate. Any single/combination of Ryan Donato, Kevin Fiala, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway, or Luke Kunin could become bonafide NHL players and become crucial to the future of the Wild’s success.
With Kevin Fiala on his second NHL team and the GM who had drafted him on to his first-team just recently fired, he has to prove his place on the roster to the new GM- whoever it might be. The numbers suggest he had a down year and with his age, it’s unlikely he’ll have another season of struggle. Between the 2017-2018 season and 2018-2019 season, Kevin Fiala produced near-identical assist numbers but scored 10 fewer goals in a season where he only had 3% fewer shots on goal. Fiala’s shooting percentage dropped from 12.3% to 7.5%, something Jason Zucker is familiar with; He went from 14.9% to 9.8%. I imagine Fiala and Zucker will both see their shooting percentages rise back to what they saw their numbers at previously. And with Fiala likely playing on a line with Kunin and Parise, there will be no shortage of opportunities for Fiala to produce.
Kevin Fiala is simply too good to repeat the year he just had. My optimistic point total for Fiala is 25 goals-32 assists for 57 points. Let’s hope he exceeds it.