Looking at the Competition in the Central Division
From top to bottom, the Central Division may be the most complete and competitive division this season. The Stanley Cup Champion. The Former Dynasty looking to rekindle the flame. Mile High Hockey. Smashville. With the regular season starting THIS WEEK, let’s unpack what makes up each team in the Central.
Chicago Blackhawks
This is a team that has struggled to find its place after its dynasty years. Since their last cup win in 2015, they have not passed the first round of the playoffs, losing in Game 7 to St. Louis and being swept by Nashville in back-to-back years, and then failing to make the postseason since. Last season, a late run nearly resulted in a playoff berth, but ultimately fell short of postseason competition.
Biggest Strength: Championship Pedigree and Elite Skill
This team still has Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. The team has also moved more and more away from “keeping the band together”, and instead have been looking to retool around their two keystones. No one exemplifies that better than 21yr old Alex DeBrincat who scored 41 goals in his second professional season and 26yr old Brandon Saad who netted 23 goals. Combining these talents with a consistent two way forwards this century and one of the most prolific American goal scorers in the NHL creates a team that could be incredibly dangerous. But before I go ahead and hand them their fourth Stanley Cup in ten years…
Biggest Weakness: Goaltending and Defense
Look, Corey Crawford was a spectacular goalie, but he has been plagued by injuries since that 2015 cup. It includes:
- Missed two to three weeks for a broken foot at a concert December 2014
- Missed indefinite amount of time for unspecified upper-body injury March 2016
- Appendectomy Surgery December 2016
- A year later, he would be put on IR after sustaining a lower-body injury, return after three games, and seven games later go back on IR after an undisclosed upper-body injury, where he would stay the rest of the season.
- December 2018 he would suffer a concussion after Evander Kane checked Dylan Strome into him and would miss 28 games.
- In their penultimate game in the 2018-2019 season, he would suffer a groin injury
Last season, Goalie Anton Forsberg and Collin Delia would occupy the 4×6 space Crawford left behind. Although they provided adequate netminding, Forsberg and Delia couldn’t keep the puck out of the net, and hardly got help from their defense. Speaking of.
The defensive issues largely surround two players: Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith
Seabrook (33yrs old) and Duncan Keith (35yrs old) make $6.875M and $5.538M this season and both have struggled in recent years as they continue to age, and the Hawks have struggled to replace their depreciated value. According to DailyFaceoff.com, the Hawks’ first defensive pair is projected to be 14th when compared to the rest of the league’s first pairs, the second pair is 26th, and the third pair is 9th.
The Hawks’ strength is certainly their offense at the expense of their defense and arguably the most impactful position in the game, Goalie.
How they Improved this Offseason
This offseason, Chicago was incredibly active. Their moves include:
- Acquired F John Quenneville from New Jersey for F John Hayden.
- Acquired D Calvin de Haan and F Aleksi Saarela from Carolina for G Anton Forsberg and D Gustav Forsling.
- Agreed to terms with F Ryan Carpenter on a three-year contract through the 2021-22 season and with F David Kampf on a two-year contract extension through the 2020-21 season and G Robin Lehner on a one-year contract.
- Acquired F Alex Nylander from Buffalo for D Henri Jokiharju.
- Acquired F Zach Smith from Ottawa for F Artem Anisimov
- Acquired F Andrew Shaw and 2021 7th round pick from Montreal for 2020 2nd and 7th round pick and 2021 3rd round pick
- Acquired D Olli Maatta from Pittsburgh for F Dominik Kahun and a 2019 5th round pick.
They brought back gritty forward Andrew Shaw, elected to bolster their blue line with more experienced defensemen, and brought in Robin Lehner to create a 1A-1B goalie tandem or if Corey Crawford gets hurt/struggles (allowed six goals on 26 shots on Wednesday’s preseason game, when the Hawks dressed most of their regulars) Lehner can take over the net.
Although they made many moves, I’m unsure if they have done enough. It’s a quality vs. quantity argument. They moved out some players who are a bit longer in the tooth (Anisimov) for younger players and brought in more prime-aged guys (de Haan and Maata) to help the netminder. Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss had a spectacular season for the New York Islanders, no one can take that from them, but I believe they benefitted from a team that decided to be incredible defensively at the expense of their offense. They scored 228 goals last year (21 of 31) but only allowed 196 (Fewest in the league). I’m unsure if Lehner will get that support from this Hawks squad.
Ultimately, this team will only go as far as its offense will carry it. In this division, that might not even be enough.
Colorado Avalanche
Everyone knows. This team is going to be scary good. They have the best contract in the league (Nathan MacKinnon $6.3M for 4 more seasons), an elite RFA (Mikko Rantanen- who just resigned), and a wide variety of very good defenseman. This team isn’t perfect though.
Biggest Strength: Depth-Offensively and Defensively
Last season, the Avalanche had perhaps the best line in hockey in Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen, the only real competitors being the Lightning’s top line and Toronto’s, but after that lacked real good offensive depth.
This offseason they acquired Andre Burakovosky for Scott Kasmachuck and 2020 2nd and 3rd round draft picks. They also acquired Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen (D), and a 2020 3rd round pick for Tyson Barrie, Alex Kerfoot, and a 2020 6th round pick. Everyone knows Kadri for his hard nose play and decent skill, Burakovosky is a bit more unknown, largely being behind Ovi, Backstrom, and Kuznetsov in Washington, but has potential to break out in a more expanded role.
The Avs replaced Carl Soderberg (traded to Arizona for Kevin Connauton (D) and 2020 3rd rd pick) with Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare on the fourth line and signed Joonas Donskoi, who ultimately scored the series-clinching goal against the Avs last year. Not exciting signings, but the need for the Avs is to have their younger players like Tyson Jost (21), J.T. Compher (24), and Valeri Nichushkin (24) to develop their scoring ability and support the top line. By adding Kadri and Burakovosky, the Avs have put pieces in place for the youngsters to grow this season.
Where they were strong last year was their defensive depth, who they largely retained. The only departure was Tyson Barrie, who is on an expiring deal, which also opened up a roster spot for one particular youngster (we’ll talk about him in a second). Erik Johnson and Nikita Zadorov are 6′ 4″ and 6′ 5″ and they show it, although EJ is better defensively. They also have Samuel Girard, who is looking to have a breakout season in an expanded role.
Oh yeah. Also Cale Makar. He makes his professional debut in the playoffs and scores his first goal. Pretty nice debut. Will still be considered a rookie, much like Jordan Greenway was, and even though he will be competing against the likes of Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, is my pick to win the Calder trophy. His skating is incredible and he reminds me of Jared Spurgeon.
Biggest Weakness: Goaltending
Weakness is probably harsh; Uncertainty is likely the better term. Is Philip Grubauer going to grow into and cement that starting spot? I would trust him more than Pavel Francouz, but he doesn’t have the safety net of Semyon Varlamov anymore (who was already beginning to lose control of his starting spot). I wouldn’t be surprised if they went 1A-1B instead of 1 and 2, or even made a trade to acquire a bonafide tender. Who knows, this take might age poorly and Gruby has a career season. Dailyfaceoff.com has him ranked as the 11th best starter in the league.
This team will make the playoffs and compete to win the division. With prospects like Bowen Byram (D), Alex Newhook (F), and Sampo Raanta (F, shoutout Gopher Hockey) in the pipeline, this team will further secure its’ foothold at the top of the division in the coming years.
Dallas Stars
Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the Wild’s midseason meltdown, the Dallas Stars managed to win games in textbook ways. Good defense, sound netminding, and just enough offense to win games. Where will this team go this year?
Biggest Strength: DEFENSE
Is it just me or do the Scandanavian Countries churn out NHL defenseman like the Twins churn out home runs (‘Bombas’ if you have been in the twin cities during the run)? Besides the point, John Klingberg (27yr old-Swede), Esa Lindell (25yr old-Finn), and Miro Heiskanen (20yr old-Finn) are already elite defensemen. Roman Polak is a fine defenseman, will be the bruiser more than a shutdown guy, Jamie Oleksiak will be a suitable 3rd pair guy, and Andrej Sekera could easily jump into the second pair with a showing of good health and good fundamentals.
Furthermore, their bottom-six forwards are proficient two way forwards, play a good 200ft game and can protect the net. But having too much of a good thing can easily be a bad thing.
Biggest Weakness: Scoring
Tyler Seguin (33goals), Alexander Radulov (29goals), and Jamie Benn(27 goals) were their best scorers last year, but that’s where the offensive production stopped for the forwards. Only Radek Faksa had double-digit goals for the remaining forwards last year, only scoring 15. They did get some goal scoring from the aforementioned Scandavainan Dmen, all three in double digits, but it’s difficult to rely on sustainable scoring from the blueliners.
They addressed this issue by signing Joe Pavelski, who scored 38 last season, but in terms of offseason moves, he was the only one that addressed the scoring need. I guess they did sign a 50 goal scorer in Corey Perry, but that was once upon a time; injuries and age have slowed down the pest and I severely doubt he’ll be taken seriously as a scoring threat.
This team will look to win very close games, 1-0/2-1 type games, which means they will largely rely on their Defense and Goaltending. Ben Bishop is certainly no slouch, he almost single-handedly carried the Stars to the Western Conference Finals, especially that Game Seven performance. Incredibly impressive. He will have to continue that elite play or rely on that elite defense, or this season could get ugly for the Stars.
That said, I fully expect this team to compete for the 3rd spot in the division or a wild card berth. Frankly, I believe that both wild card spots will be taken by Central Division teams this year.
Nashville Predators
Since the Preds won the division again, will they raise another banner for it- despite getting bounced in the first round? Anyways, Smashville is most of the NHL talking heads pick to win the Central again, which isn’t shocking. This team is impressive; for whatever reason, they haven’t gotten it done in the postseason. Since reaching the Stanley Cup Finals in the 2016-2017 season, they have yet to make it past the second round of the playoffs. But this roster seems to get better and better every year.
Biggest Strength: Being a Well Rounded Team
The Predators are a well-composed team, top to bottom. They have incredible depth offensively, elite defensive top four, and a top ten goaltender combined with a more than capable backup.
Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen man a top line that seems to create highlight reel passes every night. Putting Filip Forsberg with Canada’s Country Kid Matt Duchene and Mikael Granlund (who Paul Fenton essentially gave away, but it’s fine I’m not STILL upset) is practically cheating. I believe Matt Duchene is going to thrive in Nashville because of the role he’ll be put in. He isn’t exactly your top-line center, but he is too good to be your second-line center. Having Granlund who is a top-five passer in the league could help create huge seasons for Forsberg and Duchene. For the Preds, the second line will provide a nice juxtaposition to the top line. Grimaldi-Sissons-Smith is rated as the fifth-best third line in the league. Obviously, that won’t be the determining factor in their season success, but the Preds will hardly be caught complaining about their forward depth.
A top four of Roman Josi-Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm-Dante Fabbro is a spectacular top four. Combined, they could play fifty minutes a night and not have to worry about the bottom pairing at all.
Pekka Rinne is a weird goaltender. It seems he will go on weeklong heaters where he will get a pad, stick, helmet, and/or body part that will swallow the puck. Yet, he’ll also have stretches where he can’t track the puck well and the poise isn’t there to make the big save. These typically last for only a game or two. Juuse Saros is a more than capable goaltender and could easily be in line for the starting position when Rinne (36yrs old) retires.
Biggest Weakness: Championship Pedigree
The Predators do not have anyone who has had extensive success in postseason play in a meaningful role. Sure, Nick Bonino has two cups (2015 and 2016 with the Pens), but he isn’t the reason why he has two cups. None of their additions have been culture-altering moves like Phil Kessel could be in Arizona. He has a poise and clutch factor that will put the puck in the net when it matters most. Matt Duchene has yet to prove he can be that leader and he has had ample opportunity with Colorado and with Ottawa. I expect them to contend for the division, but I believe they’re stuck in the mid-2010’s Capitals cycle: elite regular seasons; can’t finish in the playoffs.
The defending Stanley Cup Champion did a spectacular job keeping the squad together without spending an exuberant amount of cash to do so. Has the Blues success hurt themselves and the rest of the league? Only time will tell.
Biggest Strength: They’re Pretty Much the Same Team
They didn’t make wholesale fire changes. Nor did they need to, no one was lined up for a new contract, outside of the Jordan Binnington contract. Seriously, in the forward group, they will start the same twelve forwards that they won the Stanley Cup with and it cost them virtually nothing. Ivan Barbashev got a two-year deal at $1.428M/yr, Oskar Sundqvist got a four-year deal at $2.75M/yr, Zach Sanford for two years at $1.5M/yr., and Robby Fabbri who received a one-year $900k contract. Their top four are returning players and they traded Joel Edmundson for Justin Faulk. What a weird trade that was by the way. Acquired someone who was arguably worse than Edmundson and more expensive. Also, just not a need for the Blues. There is a team that has yet to be mentioned in this Central Division breakdown that probably should have moved Heaven and Earth to get Justin Falk because their defense severely needs it. Did the Blues get Justin Faulk just to spite that team? No idea.
Biggest Weakness: They’re Pretty Much the Same Team
I would have put championship pedigree as the weakness, but the issue is they just won the Cup. Here is the short of it: this is the same team that was dead last in the NHL in early January. Tarasenko and O’Reilly are great players, but I doubt they would have similar performances against the Maple Leafs, the Lighting, and perhaps the Caps. They needed double OT to beat the Stars in the Conference Semifinals, I don’t think this team is good enough. It’s just that. This cycles back to what I stated earlier. The Blues winning the Stanely Cup could convince themselves and other fringe teams that they’re just good enough to make a serious run. Also, look at what happened in 2017 to the Blues after Jake Allen stonewalled the Wild in the first round. They paid him and he has struggled ever since. Easily could happen to Jordan Bennington. Goalies are weird sometimes.
That said, the Blues will probably be last in the league midseason and make a playoff run again, just in spite.
Or the exact opposite; first in the league, cataclysmic crash. Could be fun.
Is it good or bad I didn’t write this a week ago? Pro to writing now: I was fully prepared to attack their RFA situation and then they promptly signed both Patrick Laine and Kyle Connor. Con: I might have been excited to attack their RFA situation because I might still be a little annoyed about the Wild-Jets series from 2018.
Anyways what a wild offseason for the Jets. Essentially forced to trade Jacob Trouba for a draft pick and statistical nightmare Neal Pionk and also might lose DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN. Let’s talk about that later though.
Biggest Strength: Incredible Offense and Suitable Goaltending
The way I look at the Winnipeg Jets now is similar to how I look at the Blackhawks during their dynasty. Prodigous goalscoring and Prolific goaltending. Blake Wheeler quarterbacked the fifth-best powerplay in the league, Kyle Connor has spectacular speed, Nikolaj Ehlers has the potential to be TJ Oshie, and speaking of comparisons to Capital players, Patrick Laine is the truest goal scorer since Alex Ovechkin. Haven’t even mentioned Mark Scheifele who might be the quietest elite players in the NHL. Connor Hellebuyck is a robot in net, he was programmed well.
Biggest Weakness: Defense and Consistency
I remember their top four being terrifying with defensive towers Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers, and defensive stalwarts Jacob Trouba and Josh Morrissey. In a nightmare situation, only one of these guys will remain and Morrissey would probably be your second or third choice (behind Trouba and Big Buf), especially with how unique Dustin Byfuglien is as a defenseman. There are plenty of defensemen like Josh Morrissey and Jacob Trouba, but Buf? Not at all.
Let’s look back at the Patrick Laine claim I made just a mere paragraph ago, “Truest goal scorer since Alex Ovechkin”. While I believe that to be true, there is a severe consistency issue with Laine. He’s a thirty goal scorer, which already places him in elite company. He scored eighteen of those thirty in November. Cup half full, that’s an incredible stat. Cup half empty, he scored twelve for the rest of the season, which is unacceptable. Eighteen a month is an unreasonable expectation, but he can’t disappear for long periods like he did last season. Then to complain about those he was playing with? Woof. Also, Laine was a minus twenty-four forward last year. Yikes. Laine is a dog on defense, not a strong back checker, little to no effort. The epitome of a one-dimensional player. Ovi is at least an imposing player at both ends of the ice.
Winnipeg could have an odd season. They could either be pretty good again and make the playoffs, but with that defense, they could just as easily have a tragic season.