What the Minnesota Wild Rebuild Should Look Like

There are certain players on this roster that it’s probably time to say goodbye to.

I made this claim in yesterday’s Mailbag:

"I have to imagine just about everyone is on the trading block, unless your last name is Eriksson Ek, Kunin, Zucker, Dumba, or Spurgeon."

I was met with this one comment:

I’m about ready to add Jordan Greenway to this list, especially after yesterday’s game, but I still stand by who I wouldn’t move. So who would I be fine moving on from?

Devan Dubnyk

I think it’s time for the two-part ways. I have been adamant in defending Dubnyk’s play this year, citing the poor performance to poor team defense, but in terms of a rebuild, Dubnyk has to go. He’s currently thirty-three and is a free agent in 2021, so another team would likely be willing to take that contract for a season and a half. Who could be a trade partner?

New Jersey Devils- Corey Schnieder just has not been the same goalie since his injury and Mackenzie Blackwood isn’t anything to write home about.

Edmonton Oilers- Originally drafted him, plus might want an upgrade from Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen, although both have had hot starts this season.

San Jose Sharks- Someone pushed Martin Jones off a cliff after their Stanley Cup Final appearance. He has been downright awful.

Buffalo Sabres- They don’t necessarily need a goalie, but they might want to get a more veteran upgrade at the position.

New York Islanders- I think it’s difficult to work with Lou Lamoriello, but is Seymon Varlamov really the answer on Long Island?

Devan Dubnyk was a horse for the Minnesota Wild during his time here. But if we’re going to rebuild, he won’t be apart of the process.

Jonas Brodin

Jonas Brodin is a good defenseman and he’s on a great contract (AAV of $4.167M for 1.5 more seasons). He doesn’t score a lot, but he’s defensively spectacular and is a great skater. Someone would absolutely jump at the opportunity to take Jonas Brodin. Teams interested would probably involve:

Edmonton Oilers

WINNIPEG JETS, oh my do they need help on the blue line. If you can get the right deal, you ignore trading with a divisional rival. And they are in a tough cap situation. You might be able to take advantage.

New York Rangers- Lot of prospects but need an example to follow

Vancouver Canucks- ^^^^^

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs- They don’t need a lefty, but they have tons of young talent they cannot use because of their current cap situation. Maybe swap very good Jonas Brodin for very bad Cody Ceci and a very good prospect(s)/draft pick, or get creative and send a package for a package. If Maple Leafs fans are complaining about playing young, fast, talented winger William Nylander, we can take him off your hands.

Mikko Koivu

I don’t think the Wild want to trade Mikko Koivu. They probably prefer he retires as a career Minnesota Wild player.  But he is a really good defensive forward who is good on the faceoff dot (ranked 16th by ESPN) and on an expiring deal, so he has value. I could see it happening either way.

Eric Staal

Veteran scoring center. I have a similar feeling to Staal as I do Koivu. I don’t want him to go, but he has value. For the rebuild, it might be time to say goodbye.

The Kids (Fiala, Donato, Maybe Greenway?)

It really depends on what you think they can contribute to the rebuild. Jordan Greenway would get so much in return, but I would be scared of what he could become- like an Alex Tuch.

Kevin Fiala has goals in two straight but is this a hot streak or is this a sign of confidence and development.

Ryan Donato has largely been a non-factor this season. In thirteen games played he only has fifteen shots, a huge detraction to the sixty-four shots in twenty-two games he had at the end of last year. He might need someone to get him the puck or the confidence is just not there. It’s such a shame because I really like Donato. He plays a fun game. He shoots a lot. Some guy no one really knew once said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

Listen, if someone is willing to overpay for them, I don’t hate it. I just don’t want this team to sell low on the investment. You bought WAY high on Fiala and Donato giving away Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle. I think you have to give it a bit more time.

Or someone can blow the doors off and the Wild will profit

What about Parise and Suter?

It’s a really weird situation with these contracts. KyleHatTrick at hockeywilderness.com at SB Nation explains it perfectly. Give it a read, it’s well done and very informative.

Essentially because of the front-loaded structure of the contract (little money in actual base salary with gargantuan Signing Bonuses early in the contract), the NHL in the 2012-2013 lockout made a change in the CBA to penalize teams that front-load the contract (Parise and Suter make $1M each the last two years of the contract, compared to the $11.6M they each made in the first two years).

The penalty works like this, again thanks to KyleHatTrick

"Basically, the math works like this: Player AAV (Cap Hit) – Salary Owed = Cap Advantage The amount of cap advantage the team was able to earn by back-diving the contract would be spread over the remaining years on the contract after the players’ retirement."

HatTrick has done the math, and if Parise and Suter were to retire this year, the Cap Penalty would be just under $4M/yr EACH for the next five years. In contrast, if Parise and Suter were to retire in the 2023-2024 season, it would be $6.54M/yr EACH for the last two years of the length of the contract.

So why not trade them?

Welllllllllllllllllllll

"When a player who could potentially be subject to the cap recapture penalty is traded, his cap advantage is locked in for his original team at the time the trade is agreed to. That value is carried forward until the player decides to retire with his new team (or wherever he ends up — he could be traded 10 more times and the number stays the same). At which point, the full value is spread over the remaining years of the original contract."

Woof that isn’t great is it? KyleHatTrick gives the doomsday scenario

"The absolute worst case scenario is if both players are traded during the 2020-21 season, and then retire in 2023-24. If they do, the Wild are potentially looking at a cap penalty of… $40,307,692."

Oh, half the salary cap? That’s quite a bit of money.

The third option is the LTIR route, but it’s a bit awkward. You theoretically put the contract on to LTIR, but it would have to be because of career-ending injuries, like Chicago with Marian Hossa, Detroit with Henrik Zetterberg, and Toronto with David Clarkson and Nate Horton.

It’s easier to make an argument for Parise to go LTIR, but Suter has a much weaker case. And you can theoretically trade those contracts. Marian Hossa is on the Arizona Coyotes books now.

So for now, they’ll remain on the roster.