What the Minnesota Wild Rebuild Should Look Like
The Minnesota Wild earned a comeback win in Anaheim Tuesday night and almost completed a comeback in a terrible game in San Jose last night, but that’s not the focus today. Today, we lay the foundation for Bill Guerin and the Minnesota Wild rebuild.
In Tuesday’s Gone Wild Mailbag, after the slow and unmotivated October, I declared GonePuckWild’s campaign to restructure, #LoseForLafreniere, and #BombForByfield. Today I outline what this process will look like.
First, one ground rule:
While we recognize that to properly tank for the best lottery odds you have to finish in the basement of the league’s standings, GonePuckWild will always want the Minnesota Wild to win/compete as often as they can. This is obviously counter-intuitive to the process, but we want the Wild to build experience for the youth while restructuring the roster. Plus, since the beginning of the Lottery Odds system, the team with the greatest possibility to be the “Winner Seed” has won only six times out of the twenty-five opportunities. That said, from 1995 to 2012, teams couldn’t move up more than four spots in the order. So, a better metric would be: teams with the greatest possibility to be the “No. 1 pick” has kept the first overall pick eleven out of the twenty-five times, eight of which happened in the 1995-2012 range. So it’s not a requirement for the Wild to finish dead last. We can at least enjoy ourselves a little bit. Plus, there’s a threshold that, if the Wild fall within (picks 7-14), their first-round pick could be used as a currency to buy a more NHL ready prospect that otherwise wouldn’t get time with a better team (like the Leafs, Bruins, Flames, Lightning).
So in summary: We’re not going to be upset if the Wild win, but we’re not going to be THAT upset if they lose.
Alright, let’s rebuild the Wild
Unless a better choice becomes available, extend Bruce Boudreau.
Bruce Boudreau is a good coach. Coached during the young, prime years of Ovechkin, Backstrom, John Carlson, and Semyon Varlamov in Washington. In Anaheim, he had success with Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Ryan Getzlaf in the second half of his twenties, Cam Fowler, Pat Maroon, Rickard Rakell, John Gibson, Hampus Lindholm, Nick Ritchie, Jakob Silfverberg, and Sami Vatanen.
Bruce Boudreau has the knack for getting teams into the playoffs. Not just scraping by either, he gets his teams into the top three of the division, earning their spot in the postseason.
So keep Bruce Boudreau around as Coach. His first two years in Minnesota they finished second and third in the division. His first year as the skip, he got the team to a position where Vegas Sports Books labeled them as the favorite to win the Cup at the All-Star Break (till Chuck Fletcher tried to fix a problem that wasn’t broken in acquiring Martin Hanzal and Ryan White from Arizona.) Before that, the Wild had only finished in the top three of the division and got in the playoffs four times (Jacques Lemaire did it three times and Mike Yeo did it once. Todd Richards got the team to the top three, but not in the playoffs.). I believe he can facilitate the proper development of our prospects while still being a strategic stalwart.
Here’s the concern. Sometimes, the players can only take so much of a coach. Sometimes they can only learn so much from his system. An unnamed player has already come forward and stated his dissatisfaction with Bruce as HC, as reported by Brandon Mileski on KFAN Radio.
The other concern: Bruce Boudreau might not want to stick around for a rebuild. He has a grand resume of success. A team with an elite roster might need a change at the helm. Boudreau knows this first hand, he was fired after an extended losing streak in Washington. This season, that might be the Toronto Maple Leafs- A team that Bruce Boudreau has openly been a fan of.
What other choices might be available?
Jon Cooper could be on the hot seat. The Lightning were swept out of the first round of the playoffs after a historic season. Since his first season in 2013, the Lightning have been to the Stanley Cup Final once (2014-2015 losing to the Blackhawks), Conference Finals twice (2015-2016 and 2017-2018), and eliminated in the First Round twice (2018-2019 and 2013-2014). Completely missed the playoffs in the 2016-2017 season.
Kyle McKenna on the NHL FanSided page listed Five Coaches on the Hot Seat:
Paul Marice
John Hynes
Peter DeBoer
Claude Julien
Bruce Boudreau (Pretty Funny)
I personally wouldn’t be against Paul Marice or Claude Julien. They’ve gone through the rebuilding process and especially Paul Marice has dealt with extremely difficult situations. Coaching in Winnipeg is never easy and last season there were reports of a frustrated and fractured locker room.
There’s always the NHL assistant coaches/AHL coaches looking to make the jump to the head coaching seat.
Tim Army in Iowa has gotten off to an unbelievable start this season, but more on the baby Wild later.
On to Step Two
There are certain players on this roster that it’s probably time to say goodbye to.
I made this claim in yesterday’s Mailbag:
I have to imagine just about everyone is on the trading block, unless your last name is Eriksson Ek, Kunin, Zucker, Dumba, or Spurgeon.
I was met with this one comment:
I believe Joel Eriksson Ek could be a cornerstone piece for this roster. He’s as gritty as they come, gets in the tough areas and does the hard jobs like blocking three Shea Weber Slapshots. I believe he’s someone we want to rebuild with. I think he’s the successor to Mikko Koivu
— Lake Martin (@SmallBodyOWater) November 5, 2019
I’m about ready to add Jordan Greenway to this list, especially after yesterday’s game, but I still stand by who I wouldn’t move. So who would I be fine moving on from?
Devan Dubnyk
I think it’s time for the two-part ways. I have been adamant in defending Dubnyk’s play this year, citing the poor performance to poor team defense, but in terms of a rebuild, Dubnyk has to go. He’s currently thirty-three and is a free agent in 2021, so another team would likely be willing to take that contract for a season and a half. Who could be a trade partner?
New Jersey Devils- Corey Schnieder just has not been the same goalie since his injury and Mackenzie Blackwood isn’t anything to write home about.
Edmonton Oilers- Originally drafted him, plus might want an upgrade from Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen, although both have had hot starts this season.
San Jose Sharks- Someone pushed Martin Jones off a cliff after their Stanley Cup Final appearance. He has been downright awful.
Buffalo Sabres- They don’t necessarily need a goalie, but they might want to get a more veteran upgrade at the position.
New York Islanders- I think it’s difficult to work with Lou Lamoriello, but is Seymon Varlamov really the answer on Long Island?
Devan Dubnyk was a horse for the Minnesota Wild during his time here. But if we’re going to rebuild, he won’t be apart of the process.
Jonas Brodin
Jonas Brodin is a good defenseman and he’s on a great contract (AAV of $4.167M for 1.5 more seasons). He doesn’t score a lot, but he’s defensively spectacular and is a great skater. Someone would absolutely jump at the opportunity to take Jonas Brodin. Teams interested would probably involve:
Edmonton Oilers
WINNIPEG JETS, oh my do they need help on the blue line. If you can get the right deal, you ignore trading with a divisional rival. And they are in a tough cap situation. You might be able to take advantage.
New York Rangers- Lot of prospects but need an example to follow
Vancouver Canucks- ^^^^^
Pittsburgh Penguins
Toronto Maple Leafs- They don’t need a lefty, but they have tons of young talent they cannot use because of their current cap situation. Maybe swap very good Jonas Brodin for very bad Cody Ceci and a very good prospect(s)/draft pick, or get creative and send a package for a package. If Maple Leafs fans are complaining about playing young, fast, talented winger William Nylander, we can take him off your hands.
Mikko Koivu
I don’t think the Wild want to trade Mikko Koivu. They probably prefer he retires as a career Minnesota Wild player. But he is a really good defensive forward who is good on the faceoff dot (ranked 16th by ESPN) and on an expiring deal, so he has value. I could see it happening either way.
Eric Staal
Veteran scoring center. I have a similar feeling to Staal as I do Koivu. I don’t want him to go, but he has value. For the rebuild, it might be time to say goodbye.
The Kids (Fiala, Donato, Maybe Greenway?)
It really depends on what you think they can contribute to the rebuild. Jordan Greenway would get so much in return, but I would be scared of what he could become- like an Alex Tuch.
Kevin Fiala has goals in two straight but is this a hot streak or is this a sign of confidence and development.
Ryan Donato has largely been a non-factor this season. In thirteen games played he only has fifteen shots, a huge detraction to the sixty-four shots in twenty-two games he had at the end of last year. He might need someone to get him the puck or the confidence is just not there. It’s such a shame because I really like Donato. He plays a fun game. He shoots a lot. Some guy no one really knew once said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
Listen, if someone is willing to overpay for them, I don’t hate it. I just don’t want this team to sell low on the investment. You bought WAY high on Fiala and Donato giving away Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle. I think you have to give it a bit more time.
Or someone can blow the doors off and the Wild will profit
What about Parise and Suter?
It’s a really weird situation with these contracts. KyleHatTrick at hockeywilderness.com at SB Nation explains it perfectly. Give it a read, it’s well done and very informative.
Essentially because of the front-loaded structure of the contract (little money in actual base salary with gargantuan Signing Bonuses early in the contract), the NHL in the 2012-2013 lockout made a change in the CBA to penalize teams that front-load the contract (Parise and Suter make $1M each the last two years of the contract, compared to the $11.6M they each made in the first two years).
The penalty works like this, again thanks to KyleHatTrick
Basically, the math works like this: Player AAV (Cap Hit) – Salary Owed = Cap Advantage The amount of cap advantage the team was able to earn by back-diving the contract would be spread over the remaining years on the contract after the players’ retirement.
HatTrick has done the math, and if Parise and Suter were to retire this year, the Cap Penalty would be just under $4M/yr EACH for the next five years. In contrast, if Parise and Suter were to retire in the 2023-2024 season, it would be $6.54M/yr EACH for the last two years of the length of the contract.
So why not trade them?
Welllllllllllllllllllll
When a player who could potentially be subject to the cap recapture penalty is traded, his cap advantage is locked in for his original team at the time the trade is agreed to. That value is carried forward until the player decides to retire with his new team (or wherever he ends up — he could be traded 10 more times and the number stays the same). At which point, the full value is spread over the remaining years of the original contract.
Woof that isn’t great is it? KyleHatTrick gives the doomsday scenario
The absolute worst case scenario is if both players are traded during the 2020-21 season, and then retire in 2023-24. If they do, the Wild are potentially looking at a cap penalty of… $40,307,692.
Oh, half the salary cap? That’s quite a bit of money.
The third option is the LTIR route, but it’s a bit awkward. You theoretically put the contract on to LTIR, but it would have to be because of career-ending injuries, like Chicago with Marian Hossa, Detroit with Henrik Zetterberg, and Toronto with David Clarkson and Nate Horton.
It’s easier to make an argument for Parise to go LTIR, but Suter has a much weaker case. And you can theoretically trade those contracts. Marian Hossa is on the Arizona Coyotes books now.
So for now, they’ll remain on the roster.
No this isn’t the MLB’s Campaign to make Baseball fun again. It’s the Minnesota Wild finding out what they have in their young players
It’s been a very long time since the Minnesota Wild were in a position to draft high-level prospects. Until last season, the Minnesota Wild did not have a draft pick lower than fifteen since 2012 when they picked Matt Dumba seventh overall. Usually, with later-round picks, it takes serious time to develop the prospects. Carson Soucy is a prime example, he was selected in the fifth round in 2013 and it looks like he’s now NHL ready six years later. If the Wild are to rebuild, they have to let their young players get more expansive and important roles. Let’s start with an obvious one:
The Promised One
There is one date the entire Minnesota Wild FanBase is counting down to. April 30th.
Don’t believe me?
175 more days, 25 weeks to the day. #mnwild #KaprizovKountdown pic.twitter.com/aVbN0gNfCq
— Kaprizov Kountdown (@KaprizovC) November 7, 2019
Look we all know what he brings. Don’t criticize him if he doesn’t meet expectations immediately. Ease him into the state and the League. Don’t be surprised if they sign Mikhail Grigorenko (Kappy’s KHL teammate), Vladislav Namestnikov, or maybe trade for a Russian (Nikita Gusev?) to help him get accommodated and comfortable.
Iowa Wild
Don’t look now but the Iowa Wild are having a great season: 7-1-4 and all but one of the losses are Shootout Losses. And look at these alternate tarps for the Lil’ Wild
Debuting November 10, 2019. #HockeyLivesHere | #TheHuntContinues pic.twitter.com/g3e9KsXLCo
— Iowa Wild (@IAWild) November 1, 2019
I personally love these jerseys. Might have to snag a Mayhew or a Robson. Back to the kids.
Remember during the preseason when the narrative was “How are we going to find spots for any of these guys having good camps?”
Basically, the same thing happened in Iowa. This squad is so deep. Let’s look at some of these guys
The information comes from Joe O’Donnell on the Michael Russo Straight From The Source Podcast.
Sam Anas
The all-time leading scorer in Iowa Wild history, “On the ice, no one more gifted with the puck on his stick, a wizard on the power play, undersized, has to be a bit better defensive, scores goals and sets up people.” He’s a right-handed shot to boot.
Will Bitten
He’s currently on the top Line, “Unlikely he would play this year, but will get his chance with Minnesota, Needs to be a more direct player. Skating Ability is NHL ready. Very Speedy.”
Brennan Menell
“Ridiculous offensive numbers for a defenseman, adds a lot offensively, joins rush at right times, 25-27 minutes a night.”
Brandon Duhaime
“A kid who has opened eyes, Big strong and fast, great chip and chase game, great hands.”
Connor Dewar
“Hasn’t had a lot of opportunity because of the Iowa Wild depth. Good skater and he competes.”
Dimitry Sokolov
“Doesn’t skate great, got reassigned to Allen from Iowa, but did get recalled, 16G in limited role (10min a night), NHL level shot, came into camp in the best shape he’s been, but maybe didn’t meet certain criteria for Iowa. Depth didn’t give him a chance and got reassigned to play. A 7th round pick, but he can develop. Can’t give up on a kid like that”
Alexander Khovanov
Not from Joe O’Donnel, but already claimed as the best Celly-er in Wild history, a claim with some of the good ones from Staal, Zucker, and Moose. Let’s check the tape.
https://twitter.com/myhockeyeyes/status/1192548671067500556
Someone has played too much NHL 20. That said, we love to see the passion.
Ivan Lodnia
“Sent back to juniors because he had junior eligibility and would get more playing time, wasn’t going to make Iowa’s top 12, even with call ups and injuries. He can skate and shoot, so he has value.”
Mat Robson and Kaapo Kahkonen
For Robson: “Absolute Sure Thing, Sub 2GAA, Frederic Chabot (Minnesota Wild Goaltending Development Coach) said, Looks comfortable and is talented”
For Kaapo, “6-1 start, doesn’t have as good numbers as Robson but gets wins. Makes one more save than the other guy. The end of last year was emotionally spent and the numbers showed. Had a 222-minute shutout streak last year, could play games as early as this year for Minnesota.”
Gerry Mayhew aka GERRY TIME
“Huge level of competition. Has the clutch gene and scores big goals. He doesn’t get down on himself.” The first game sent back to Iowa, he did this to first overall pick Filip Zadina:
Don’t sleep on his celly ability either.
Cody McLeod
Look he’s not going to be a part of the rebuild. He was signed to an AHL deal to keep playing hockey. O’Donnell said, “Knew he wasn’t going to play unless a spot opened up. But, oddly enough, he’s a decent Color Commentator when not playing. Also, remember back in April when I said that Cody McLeod wouldn’t take a contract with Minnesota? Pretty goofy.
Also don’t forget Mason Shaw, who had an electric year last season, but is rehabbing from an ACL tear.
Non-Iowa Wild Players
We’ll show some love to the prospects too.
Hunter Jones
Selected in this year’s draft, Hunter Jones is off to a 10-1-1 start in the OHL Peterborough Petes. The goalie pipeline is looking very good.
The Boston College Boys (Matt Boldy, Jack McBain, and Marshall Warren)
Scott Wheeler at The Athletic recently did an article outlining the future of the three BC Eagle- Wild drafted, prospects.
On McBain, Scott Wheeler reported:
Legendary Boston College head coach Jerry York sees something in McBain, a big, tall kid who is working on his mobility, that he saw in an old player of his. “He reminds me an awful lot of Brian Boyle when he first came to BC and he’s got 14 years in the NHL now,” York said.
The Eagles take a 2-1 lead late in the third period after Jack McBain cashes in with a goal. Can Harvard come back? Catch all the action on NESN. pic.twitter.com/TNdZWjUeXW
— NESN (@NESN) February 5, 2019
On Boldy, Wheeler:
Dan Hinote, associate head coach with USA Hockey, sees similarities between Boldy and Marian Hossa and Patrice Bergeron. “(Hossa and Bergeron) took just as much pride in stripping guys of pucks on the defensive side as (they) did scoring goals on the offensive side,” Hinote said. “Boldy’s the same way. That’s rare for somebody to put that much pride in their defensive game.”
#Mnwild 2019 first-round pick Matt Boldy scores his first goal with Boston College pic.twitter.com/eeFuW2fMFu
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) October 12, 2019
On Warren:
He (Dan Hinote) believes Warren is the type of player who will wear a letter wherever he plays and could someday be a captain at the highest level. Whenever USA Hockey staff needed someone to round up the team making sure everyone was on time, they’d call on Warren to sort them out. Whenever the team was stuck in “travel hell” on a bus, or in an airport, Warren would calm everyone down. “He was a godsend for us because having a guy like that in the locker room when things go sideways, it’s invaluable to a team,” Hinote said. “His leadership skills are off the charts. You’re getting just as good a person as you are a hockey player.”
Marshall Warren putting it only where the cookies go...to shelf. pic.twitter.com/dKkV0X99rm
— Brian Berard (@RockyBerard) October 12, 2019
Safe to say the Eagles have some high caliber talent. It might be a year or two until they’re NHL ready, which is perfectly fine.
Speaking of time…
How Soon Can We Expect This?
I have a tough time projecting when this rebuild could be completed. You always want to shoot low and expect to be in solid form way sooner than is realistic. Look at the Rangers! They went from being in serious long-term trouble to signing Panarin and drafting Kaapo Kakko. They’re currently sixth in the Metro Division, but they went from four to five-year rebuild to maybe a year rebuild.
I don’t see that kind of acceleration happening for Minnesota. NYC is a desirable place to be and that’s what I’ll chalk up the quick turnaround for the Blue Shirts.
That said, if my rebuild plan is followed and successful, I think the Minnesota Wild could be in good shape two or three seasons from now. I think adding Kiril Kaprizov is going to be huge for the team and help facilitate a mindset that the organization needs to be a contender in the division for the coming years, and getting the Boston College Kids during that time frame is going to be huge for the team. With where our Goaltending Prospects are at currently, I can’t imagine them being anything less than instrumental to the future. If both are as good as stated, they could run a dominant 1A-1B tandem. And you have to imagine three or four of Anas, Bitten, Dewar, Duhaime, Khovanov, Lodnia, Mayhew, Menell, and Sokolov will be real NHLers.
It might be painful to watch. Fan Favorites will likely leave. It could feel like there’s a permanent cloud over Xcel Energy Center.
But have faith Wild Fans.
It could very well have us hoisting Lord Stanley’s Chalice in the State of Hockey.