Evaluating the Minnesota Wild Thirty Games into the Season
Until Saturday’s regulation loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, the Minnesota Wild registered points in eleven straight games and had collected five straight wins. The last time they failed to register points in a game (before Saturday) was November 12th in a loss to the Los Angeles Kings. What has happened since the disastrous October? We dive into what we noticed and what to expect for the future.
The Minnesota Wild have come alive recently, crawling out of the basement of the League Standings and now could be competing for a Wild Card spot as we enter the middle of December. Thirty-one games into the season, we’re already a third of the way through the year; we have a pretty good idea of what teams are good and what teams aren’t. Like the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins- Good teams, they’ll be in postseason contention when April comes around. The Detroit Red Wings and the Ottawa Senators- Bad teams, they’ll be watching lotto balls while most everyone else is watching playoff hockey. The Minnesota Wild’s status as a good or bad hockey team is clouded with grayness on how good our team is. Today, we’ll look at the numbers since the horrific start and see if they can continue the good play for the rest of the season.
Individual Player Stats
Same table from a couple days ago, with PDO (team shooting%+team save%) and xGF%. pic.twitter.com/oDO2QsymZ9
— Gone Puck Wild (@FSGonePuckWild) December 9, 2019
During this eleven game stretch, the Minnesota Wild experienced a surge in offense and chemistry and a staple of their play was the consistency of their lines. When the team is healthy, Bruce Boudreau has the four lines and three defensive pairs he likes to play:
Jason Zucker-Eric Staal-Mats Zuccarello
Zach Parise-Mikko Koivu-Kevin Fiala
Jordan Greenway-Joel Eriksson Ek-Luke Kunin
Marcus Foligno-Ryan Donato/Victor Rask-Ryan Hartman
Ryan Suter-Jared Spurgeon
Jonas Brodin-Matt Dumba
Carson Soucy-Brad Hunt
No one has seen this better than Zach Parise. Over the eleven games, Parise went from four goals in the first eighteen games to eight goals in his next eleven. Parise has twelve goals in thirty games, which leads the team. During the point streak, Zach Parise averaged a point/game during the eleven game stretch for the Minnesota Wild. Kevin Fiala has been surprising. He has three goals and six assists. Jonas Brodin might quietly be one of our more talented defensemen. He skates incredibly well, is defensively technically sound, and has good game sense. He knows where to be and where the puck has to go and can execute it. He had one goal and eight assists during the eleven game point streak.
Team Stats
As a line, Parise-Koivu-Fiala register a 51.67% Expected Goals For% (xGF%), which means that when they take the ice, they are more likely to score than be scored on. It’s still practically 50/50, but because of the above fifty stat, it is indicative of the improved play. For reference, Zucker-Staal-Zuccarello score a 51.03%, and the GEEK squad compile a 52%. The fourth line is a bit of a statistical anomaly- Foligno/Donato/Hartman score an 81.66%, but this is a misnomer. They’ve only scored one goal together while having zero goals scored on them in a very limited sample size. Foligno/Rask/Hartman score a 53.44% which is more normal. For most of the point streak, Donato-Rask-Hartman played on the fourth line together and their xGF% was 64.72%. It’s also indicative of the type of players they are typically matched up against. Donato-Rask-Hartman has typically matched up against weaker opponents, whereas Parise-Koivu-Fiala and Zucker-Staal-Zuccarello match against the opposing teams’ best lines.
For the defensive pairs, Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon garner an xGF% of 58.62%, Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba cultivate a 48.55%, and Carson Soucy and Brad Hunt obtain a 53.21%.
Another interesting metric for the Minnesota Wild during the eleven game point streak is their PDO (shooting%+save%). At its most simple, PDO measures how lucky a team is, over 102 means they probably aren’t as good as they seem and below 98 typically means they’re better than they appear. During the eleven games, the Minnesota Wild’s PDO was 103.7, meaning that the team was probably incredibly fortunate and likely on a hot streak. For the season, the Minnesota Wild sit at a 101.3 in PDO. It could mean they’re just a fortunate team, but it’s not unreasonable to say that the Wild have benefitted from improved goaltending and have begun finishing scoring chances.
Let’s Take a Peek at the Schedule
Any fan of the Wild has noticed that it feels like they’ve been on the road for almost every game. They wouldn’t be far off from the truth; of the thirty-one games the Minnesota Wild have played this season, twenty of them have been on the road, aka almost half of our road games for the season have already been played, and we are just over a third of the way through the season! ALSO, the longest homestand the Wild have had in the eleven home games is TWO GAMES (has happened three times). It’s absurd. The guys have been traveling virtually all season.
Another interesting number about the schedule; of the thirty-one games the Wild have played, 70% of the competition has been against playoff-caliber teams (in the playoffs today + preseason favorites like Tampa, Toronto, and San Jose). To my knowledge, the General Managers of each team finalize the schedule before Free Agency, which is July 1st (Wild announced schedule June 25th this season). That would mean Paul Fenton was still employed and approved of this nightmare schedule for the Minnesota Wild.
Look, it could have been done to make Minnesota’s road to the playoffs (if they were contending) easier because the majority of their games would be at home (just under 60% of the remaining games are at home, including a seven-game homestand from Mid-January into February). But, from what has been uncovered about Paul Fenton’s management of the team, he clearly thought this team was going to begin rebuilding this season (moving Coyle, Granlund, Nino, trying to trade Parise and Zucker, not committing to Spurgeon early in Summer, trying to fire Bruce).
Allow me to put on my aluminum foil hat on for a second: I believe Paul Fenton structured the schedule in this manner to bury the Minnesota Wild early in the season. Think of the disastrous October the Wild had; Four wins and Nine losses- none in overtime. Further, on November 17th, the Minnesota Wild found themselves last in the league (ironically, this was a day after an overtime loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, the second game in the eleven game point streak for the Wild). I think Fenton tried to tank the Wild early to push Craig Leipold into the rebuild and replace Bruce Boudreau. Lastly, I think Fenton back-loaded the schedule with home games so that once the fanbase collectively agreed it was time to rebuild, he could show off the potential future of HIS team- like Nico Sturm, Gerry Mayhew, Brennan Menell and Carson Soucy- and give the reigns of the franchise to the new core, like Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway, Luke Kunin, Kevin Fiala, and Ryan Donato.
Whether or not my conspiracy theory is true, the Minnesota Wild changed GM’s before the season and hired Bill Guerin, who has publicly stated that he’s going to be patient with the roster and the coach to see how they performed. After the bad start, they dug themselves out of the basement of the league and put themselves near the Wild Card spot with an eleven game point streak, which included a five-game win streak, and in the last eighteen games the Wild have played, they have points in fifteen of them (10-3-5).
Where Do We Go From Here?
The Minnesota Wild are likely living out The Athletic’s Dom Luszczysyn’s prediction for the team at the beginning of the season (subscription required):
The Wild are probably too good to fail… …But also not good enough to compete either.
Further, the Minnesota Wild have been bitten by the injury bug. Currently, Mikko Koivu is on IR, listed as week-to-week with a lower-body injury, Greg Pateryn hasn’t played a NHL game all season after having surgery to solve a Sports Hernia during training camp, and Jared Spurgeon is still out for another week with a hand injury. This doesn’t include Eric Staal, who could be injured after an awkward collision with a linesman, and Devan Dubnyk who is away with a personal family matter.
Even when the roster is fully healthy, there’s an availability issue on the roster. Because of the emergence in Carson Soucy this year, Nick Seeler hasn’t seen significant time. Further, when all the forwards are healthy, forwards have been in and out of the lineup, like Victor Rask, who has improved play from last season, and Ryan Donato, who has improved play since the start of the season.
Here’s my take:
I believe whether the Minnesota Wild make the playoffs or commit to the rebuild this year, they’re playing with house money. The Wild have been surprised with the development in prospects like Alexander Khovanov, Jack McBain, and the Promised One- Kiril Kaprizov, the success of the new core of this team -like Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway, Luke Kunin, Kevin Fiala, and Ryan Donato-, the performance and depth of the current roster, and the apparent culture and stability Bill Guerin has developed in St. Paul should have the fanbase excited.