Who Are the Minnesota Wild Fifty Games into the Season?

Fifty games into the season, who are the Minnesota Wild? A horrendous start, a white-hot run starting in Mid-November, and recently mellowing out in December due to injuries. So what should we expect for the last Thirty-two games?

The Minnesota Wild currently sit five points out of a playoff spot in the West with two games in hand in the middle of their bye week. In recent games, the Wild have managed to keep this same gap but never closing the divide between where they currently stand and a playoff spot.

This team isn’t in the “Stanley Cup Contender” Echelon; who are the Minnesota Wild though?

What the Numbers Say

In Minnesota’s worst ten games (which happened to be the first ten games), the Wild gave up 36 Goals Against while only getting 21 Goals For. In that stretch, it should be no surprise they only won three games and lost seven. Inversely, in Minnesota’s best ten games, they scored 37 goals and gave up 29, for a Goal Differiation of +8. In that stretch, the Wild were 7-1-2.

Unsurprisingly, the trends don’t just happen in ten-game segments: The Wild possesses the 7th best Expected Goals Percentage at 52.52% (computed by xGF/xGA, Wild xGF is 26th at 85.02 but 1st in xGA at 76.86) and tied for 9th best PDO (aka luck rating, calculated by shooting% and save %) in the league at 1.007. So why aren’t the Wild performing better this season?

It certainly isn’t for a lack of goal scoring. The Wild rank 8th in Goals Scored (109), and although four of the seven teams ahead of them have played fewer games than them (meaning more efficient goal-scoring), the four teams directly behind them have all scored fewer goals in more games. In the same vein, the Wild have the 5th best-shooting % at 9.29.

Maybe it’s the save percentage being well below league average at 91.4% (league average is 91.84%). Of the four teams ahead of Minnesota in the Wild Card race, three of the four have significantly better save percentages: Arizona leads the four at 92.82%, Chicago has 92.49%, and Winnipeg is at 92.08%. Vegas is the only team with a worse save percentage (91.03%) and a dismal PDO (0.984).

Perhaps building on poor goaltending, the Wild possesses the league’s worst High Danger Save Percentage (76.09%), meaning one or two things: Faults in the defensive zone are not only drastic, but Stalock and Dubnyk are hardly ever to bail them out, or Defensive Zone play is greatly supporting our netminders and only the perfect shots beat the tenders.

I tend to think that the Wild Goaltenders are better than what the numbers say, yet it’s hard to take that stance and believe the defense is solid, which would be ignoring the strong defensive play built on the backs of workhorses like Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno, Luke Kunin, Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Carson Soucy. So maybe it’s special teams?

The Power Play currently ranks 12th in the league at 20.51% (32 PPG in 156 Opportunities), about the middle of the pack, but the penalty kill is 26th in the league at 74.83% (37 PPA in 147 Opportunities). which is simply not good enough.

So what exactly do these numbers tell us? They probably should be performing better than they are, and it might be accomplished with better goaltending performances.

Where do the Wild Go From Here?

Five points separate the Wild between a Wild Card berth and a lottery pick. I’m an advocate for getting the team back into the postseason, I just don’t want to give up our future to do so. Still, getting back into the playoffs gives great, important experience to the young players on the team and rejuvenates the fanbase as a legit team. I think the appropriate move is to let this team ride out this season. If they make the playoffs, great, give it a run. If they miss, that’s fine, they’ll get a lottery pick.

For the Wild to make the playoffs, they have to get 90 pts, according to the pace of the two wild card teams right now. Arizona is on pace for 92 pts and Vegas is on track for 89 pts. For the last 32 games, the Wild would have to go 17-11-4 or better to make the playoffs.

Either way, there are big moves to be made this summer. Number One priority is signing Kiril Kaprizov to an NHL contract. You have to get this kid in the league. Look what he just did in the KHL:

Next, you’ll have to create a top-6, maybe top-9 spot for him. That means the departure of Parise (yeah probably not happening), Zuccarello (could happen under the right circumstances), Zucker (please no), Fiala (not happening), Foligno (Would happen this year before the trade deadline, not in summer), or Kunin (Unlikely, not impossible).

Zucker seems like the most likely to go, he’s getting the most demand, but I think he could be someone that thrives if he’s not the one given the most attention. This is what I mean; I think Jason Zucker is the player every opponent is the most worried about for the Minnesota Wild. He has the biggest game-breaking skills on the team with how fast he is. I think that on a team like the Penguins, where he’s rumored to go, he would thrive because the biggest concern is Crosby and Malkin. Because I’m selfish, I’d rather keep him in-state. He would be my sleeper pick to be the next Minnesota Wild captain. I think it’s incredibly difficult for the team to be better with whatever the Wild would get back for him.

Third, you have to clear out some defenseman space. Brad Hunt, Nick Seeler, and Greg Pateryn will simply not all be on the team after next season. If I had my pick, I would keep Hunt and Seeler, both are inexpensive yet provide important skills that aren’t extensively covered in the rest of the top 6. You could get incredible returns for trading Matt Dumba and Jonas Brodin and you’ll likely be losing a great defenseman in the Seattle Expansion draft. Matt Dumba’s value is likely at a low, so it might be hard to get fair value for his ability. I admire Brodin’s game, but I think Soucy could be a serviceable replacement.

An extra step, should the organization deem it necessary, they could move a goalie out to make a spot for Kaapo Kahkonen. The aforementioned goalie issues could result in a goalie change. Not sure if it’s entirely necessary, but could happen. Kaapo deserves a legitimate shot.

What do you think the Wild should do? Leave a comment down below or tweet your ideas at me.