Minnesota Wild Fans Want a New Top Six Center. The Issue is…
On Monday, we ran a poll for our Twitter followers asking “Who do you want to see the Wild acquire this year?” By a 3 to 1 ratio, New Number 1 Center crushed New Number 1 Goalie. Today, we look at potential candidates.
The two biggest issues the Minnesota Wild had this season were substandard goaltending and a lack of quality top centers. I see two pretty reasonable explanations for this outcome. One explanation could be that the Wild have lacked a younger, quality, top two line center for quite some time, and could desperately use an upgrade at the position, and that need is larger than getting a new starting goalie.
The other explanation is that the goaltending had an abnormal off-year and will return to form in the next season, so perhaps that need isn’t as important. I don’t think this holds any water though. The goaltending tandem had a poor season this year and Father Time is undefeated. A resurgence would be fairly unexpected at 32 and 33. Who knows though? The goalie position is a finicky thing. Stalock played very well toward the NHL postponement.
Back to our Center Position Predicament, the only real way to get that sort of talent is by drafting a blue-chip prospect, giving up a King’s Ransom in a trade, or paying a premium out on the open market. Even still, the Free Agent has to choose you, and the time and effort invested in trying to get the prized player may be all for naught and could miss out on addressing other needs.
To start, let us dive into the UFA market to see if we could resolve our need at center.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Well. It’s not a deep pool. There are centers available but there’s really only one potential Top Two-line center, and he mostly plays Left Wing. He’s also considered to be the best forward available as a UFA. It just doesn’t seem to fit. We’ll stop with the Pronoun game, we’re talking about…
Taylor Hall
Taylor Hall’s a good player, but since he’s joined the Coyotes, he’s spent the majority of his time on the left-wing, which isn’t something we need right now. Further, he has struggled since his Hart Trophy-winning season where he dragged the Devils to the playoffs.
Since that season, he was been battling injury and he’s been struggling to produce at that same level. Throughout his career, he’s had an issue staying in the lineup. Since he turned pro in the 2010-2011 season, he has played over 70 games only four seasons (Granted, he did play 45 games of the possible 48 games in the 2012-2013 lockout-shortened season), the last time being in 2017-2018 when he won the Hart Trophy.
Hall will likely command an expensive contract and Hall’s agent, Darren Ferris, has a history of being rather combative. Ferris also represents Mitch Marner, who recently had a lengthy, public, and difficult contract negotiation with the Toronto Maple Leafs. A staple of his contract negotiation tactics is threatening the team with the player playing internationally if they don’t receive the contract they want. Ferris also consistently will try to pit the team and the fanbase against one another. It’s baggage the Wild don’t need right now.
Mikael Granlund
Another player that plays both Center and Wing, but has played mostly Wing during his time in Minnesota and now during his time in Nashville. So it’s a similar issue with Taylor Hall. I’d love to have Granlund back with Minnesota, but it’s another issue of, isn’t that Center we need. He’s more considered a Winger. I just don’t see Granny coming back in the upcoming Free Agency period.
Erik Haula
Now he’s someone who is mainly a Center! We lost Erik Haula during the Vegas Expansion Draft, and he seemed to rejuvenate his career in the new situation. His first season with Vegas, Haula had 29 goals and 26 assists in 76 games, which is very impressive. His second season, he had a brutal leg injury that only kept him to 15 games played in the season. He then was traded to Carolina, where he spent most of his time between the second and third lines before being traded to Florida where he played mainly second-line center.
Signing Haula I think makes more sense for the Wild than Granlund. Plays center and I think could be a solid role model for our younger centers, like Joel Eriksson Ek, Nico Sturm, Ryan Donato (has played some C/some wing, if he refined his center play, could get in the lineup more frequently). He won’t be your top-line center, but he could reinforce the depth, maybe bump JEE into the second line.
It’s also tough to project what teams are willing to offer players during this upcoming Free Agency period because of how COVID-19 has impacted teams’ ability to spend money. Haula’s current contract was 3yrs in length and $2.75M a year. It’s hard to see him getting much more than that at 29, maybe the same length and $3.25M/per? Really tough to project.
Vladislav Namestnikov
This is my darkhorse signing for Minnesota. I think it works. He can play center, but wouldn’t be that top two line talent we need right now. The angle with Namestnikov is that he’s Russian and has played in North America for some time, could be a bit of a mentor for Kiril Kaprizov, and help him adjust to the new landscape.
I have to imagine he would be a Mid-6 Center. If you add Namestnikov, I’d like to Joel Eriksson Ek to get more minutes. As a theme throughout this FA pool: There isn’t really a Center available that will be your top-6 center. What is there though, Mid-6 Centers that could be a safeguard in the chance that you try to expand the younger center’s roles (JEE for example), and if it doesn’t work, you have more experienced centers that can plugin (I don’t think JEE would struggle though).
Wait. Doesn’t Minnesota have two UFA Centers?
Minnesota Wild’s Two UFA Centers
Alex Galchenyuk and Mikko Koivu are both UFAs in the upcoming pool. Gally is a weird situation. He’s a spark plug, he has so much energy on the ice and on the bench, it looks like he wants to fight for his spot on this roster. And he was solid as our second-line center. Just not at his contract number. Prove it contract makes sense, no more than 2yrs, around $3M.
Mikko Koivu is another option. The CapFinn is wrapping up what could be the final year of his NHL career, and what a shame it would be for it to end like this. He’s seen his playing time and role diminish down to the 4th line, and around the trade deadline he was approached about waiving his NMC, but he denied. It could be inferred that he wanted to wrap up his final year with the only NHL team he has ever played for. Here’s the thing, at his number, it’s a brutal contract. But Mikko Koivu at a league min price, still on the 4th line? I’d be fine with that.
I had mentioned that I can’t see both Mikko Koivu and Eric Staal returning to the team next season, and that still is the case. A buyout could be possible, trade another avenue if the Wild were willing to sell low. It really depends on if Koivu wants to play and if the Wild were willing to offer it to him.
So the UFA market is pretty dry. Is there a chance we see a trade/offer sheet in the RFA market?
Restricted Free Agents
Here’s where there may be some interesting opportunities. Some good RFAs available who need contracts for this upcoming season.
Now, I’m going to nip the Offer Sheet notion at the bud. I can’t see an offer sheet happening. We thought last season was going to be a real chance to see an offer sheet occur. So many talented RFAs needed contracts and we barely saw fireworks. Montreal signed Aho to an unimpressive offer sheet, which the Hurricanes merely laughed at, matched, and retained Aho’s services.
This season, the talent in the pool is much shallower, with the highlights being Mat Barzal (very good player, the same caliber as many of last season’s talented RFAs) and Max Domi (solid player, hasn’t been on playoff-caliber teams). There’s also the issue of missing revenue from this pause due to COVID-19 and teams were already scared of ruffling feathers with offer sheets. I can’t see it happening while a pandemic is occurring.
Teams could trade for the negotiating rights to players contracts. The price likely will be steep.
Mat Barzal
The Prized RFA available, Mat Barzal has been phenomenal for the New York Islanders. In three full seasons with the Islanders, Barzal has 59 goals and 148 assists. Since Barzal’s first full season in the NHL, he has not missed a game due to an injury or healthy scratch. He’s easily a franchise player, has been the top scorer for the Islanders for three-consecutive 60point seasons and three-consecutive seasons as the Islanders top scorer.
Is he available? Depends. GM Lou Lamoriello is known for his hard-nosed negotiations, so potentially another team could try to be opportunistic, but again can’t see an offer sheet coming. As mentioned earlier, GM’s don’t like to ruffle one another’s feathers with offer sheets, but further Bill Guerin and Lou Lamoriello seem to have a decent relationship- Lou was one of Guerin’s mentors.
Another angle, perhaps Guerin and Lamoriello revisit a possible Zach Parise trade? We aren’t exactly sure what was in that trade package, but it was known that Andrew Ladd would have been a part of the deal. I struggle to believe that’s all we would be getting in return- he’s certainly not in Parise’s strata of production.
I also can’t see Barzal being a part of that package if Minnesota was only trading Parise. If they were to return to trade talks, could he be? I’m not sure. It’s difficult to build a trade that’s fair for both sides, where the Islanders still get Parise and Minnesota gets Barzal. It would maybe be something like Parise and good draft picks/prospect (first-rounder(s), near NHL ready prospects). Just can’t see the Islanders trading their 3-peat top scorer like that.
Anthony Cirelli
Cirelli is in an interesting situation. The Tampa Bay Lightning had a fairly tough time signing Brayden Point last season, but their own GM addressed the fact that this upcoming Free Agency period would be one of their toughest, and this was before the League was put on pause.
Cirelli has a solid two-way forward role. Luke Fox from Sportsnet characterizes Cirelli as
Logs significant ice time (18:28), mostly against tough opponents. Ranks top-five among all NHL forwards in penalty-killing time (2:49 per game). Earning some Selke Trophy buzz for his two-way game.
It seems to me that the Lightning would prefer to retain Cirelli, going as far as to trade away more veteran forwards like Tyler Johnson or Alex Killorn, as Luke Fox mentions.
This is one where teams may take a shot at an offer sheet with how cash strapped the Lightning are. It may burn a bridge, but could be worth the risk. The Lightning can’t take on much money without running into the Cap, so to make the deal fairer, we’d have to give up solid prospect(s)/draft pick(s), which is not what the Wild are looking to give up right now.
Max Domi
Max Domi was a popular target for a potential trade deadline acquisition for Minnesota. He’s a bit undersized, but he has solid offensive skill, plays with a hard edge, and loves to be given responsibility- doesn’t back down from an opportunity. The Canadiens are in a weird fringe area of having some pieces to be a playoff team, but not good enough to be considered a threat.
Of the three RFAs mentioned here, I think Wild acquiring Domi is the most probable of the three. What they’re looking for, I’m not sure. Their forward group only has two players 30+, but their team scoring is 18th/31st in the league. In a similar mediocrity, their goal prevention is 23rd/31st. Maybe they’re looking for a quality defenseman, like a Brodin/Dumba-Esque caliber?
I like the fit of Domi on the Minnesota Wild. He seems to have the personality and work ethic that fits with the organization and the roster already. Minnesota’s forechecking is already extremely tough, adding Domi adds to that with some offensive skill.
We’ve covered both groups of free agents; now lets cover teams looking to make a change with big-time trades
Trade Central
This is where the Minnesota Wild are most likely to get the Center they need. It’s been well stated that the Wild are going to have to trade either Brodin or Dumba if they want to get something from there departure and they’re very valuable trade chips. Some of these trade proposals may be bombastic, but we like to dream big,
Jack Eichel
The second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Jack Eichel has carried the Buffalo Sabres since he’s arrived. The issue is management and ownership haven’t been able to build a team around him that can sustain a high level of play and finally reach the playoffs.
For the last two seasons, the Sabres have run extremely hot, looked to finally get over the mediocrity hump, just to plummet back into the draft lottery. Jack Eichel has some serious talent, it’d be a shame for his talent to go to waste. Wouldn’t be the first time Buffalo has lost an elite center either. In the Free Agency before last season, Ryan O’Reilly was traded from Buffalo to St. Louis, giving the reigns of the team to Jack Eichel.
The issue is, they haven’t gotten any better. They have the 10th worst GF in the league and almost dead middle of the pack in goal prevention at 17th. How much longer can the Sabres tread water like this before their Franchise Player gets antsy? Hard to say. They have control over his contract for another six seasons ($10M per) but they don’t have the type of draft capital, prospects, or ability to add significant pieces and be a Stanley Cup Contender now.
Trading Jack Eichel away doesn’t get them any closer, but it could put them in a better position to better build for the future. Who knows? Isn’t really the Wild’s problem…
Here are three trade proposals, one including Dumba, one including Brodin, one including both:
Buffalo replaces their center with a solid looking prospect, with all-around good offensive talent, and gets two first-round draft picks in the upcoming draft, which is considered to be incredibly deep. They also get Matt Dumba, incredibly talented offensive defenseman, who is under contract for another three years, at $6M each.
Essentially the same trade, but because Brodin only has one more season on his current contract ($4.1667M), Minnesota gives up a better prospect.
I like this trade a bit less because Khovanov looks like a solid player, and I think you could get a similar deal as the Dumba trade by extending Brodin to a similar contract (maybe a bit longer, could give a lesser prospect). Who knows, I may be severely lowballing the Sabres right now and offending a lot of their fans.
This trade would be bananas. The entire second defensive pair gone for Jack Eichel and Rasmus Asplund, Buffalo’s second-best center prospect (Dylan Cozens the first). They also flip first-round picks, Buffalo getting the worst of the first-round picks between Minnesota’s two (Their own and Pittsburgh’s).
Buffalo would likely have to make a move to unload a defenseman, as they’d have nine after the trade, but they could get it done with another team in the offseason.
This offer somewhat balances the AAV of the key players in this trade, Minnesota actually gives up a bit more. Buffalo gets two incredible defensemen, both of which could conceivably play on their top pairing immediately.
Another thought in the package deal, Brodin and Dumba are incredibly close. They’ve been a defensive pairing almost their entire career, and no one else knows the other’s game better.
Minnesota gives up a lot of established talent for an elite, top 10 center in the league. They could commit and pull off this trade if they think their younger defensemen are ready (remember Menell played a handful of games earlier this season and looked good, Belpedio almost had an opening day roster spot, the team seems to love Soucy’s jump to the NHL this year). They also have an incredibly strong defensive core, that’s why it looks like they’ll have to move on from either Brodin or Dumba at the minimum.
This is likely our more creative idea. But trust us, we’re still going to get weird.
Aleksander Barkov
At what point during the “Most Underrated Player in the League” discussion does a player move on to “Best Player on a Bad/Mediocre/Undercovered Team”? Barkov might be there.
Remember how we projected that Jack Eichel could get a bit tired with the team’s lack of success? Barkov might be there already. Last year when Barkov won the Lady Byng, he opened his acceptance speech with:
What’s the Lady Byng you might ask? Well, it is awarded to the “player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability.”
And if that’s not the most ironic thing, I don’t know what is.
Could Minnesota conceivably acquire him? His cap hit is much less at $5.9M a year for the next two seasons, but that could also be viewed as “Wow, what a deal!”
Back near the deadline, it was rumored the Wild had taken some looks at Vincent Trochek, but he eventually was moved to Carolina. Interestingly enough, both the Panthers and the Hurricanes had taken an interest in the Wild’s Jonas Brodin, so perhaps the Hurricanes get Trochek from the Panthers to try and complete a deal for Minnesota’s Brodin.
Something Wild fans somewhat expected around the deadline is interest in Brodin but didn’t expect anything to be done. Not the sort of deal that occurs around the deadline but rather the offseason and draft floor. For Minnesota, this works to their advantage. Better players become more available out of season.
Here’s the other issue Florida has going on. They committed $10M a year for seven seasons to Sergei Bobvrosky, who is having a terrible year. According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, Florida Panthers Ownership has given Dave Tallon the directive of cutting $10M in salary next season, exactly what they paid to Bob. That doesn’t mean get rid of Bob, just help us recover some of that lost investment. If they’re related at all….. (they are).
SO, let’s help the Panthers help their owners and the Wild. The Panthers already have an interest in Brodin and we’ll build from there.
Poor Sam, I’ve traded the guy like three times today. Panthers get the dman they want in Jonas Brodin, a solid goalie prospect in Mat Robson who has performed fairly well in Iowa. Sam Hentges, Minnesota’s second/third best center prospect (depends on how you view Boldy, as a Center or a Winger), and the better pick of Minnesota’s (likely) two first-round picks. The Panthers also save a bit more than $1.7M in the deal.
And Finally,
Dylan Larkin
Some of you might have noticed a theme about these big trades involving Dumba/Brodin. We’ve targeted teams with very good centers who are dwelling towards the bottom half of the league. Detroit is the epitome of that team. Fully possible that Detroit breaks the infamous Colorado Avalanche 48-Point Season, but with the rest of the season in limbo, we may never know.
Detroit is in the midst of a major rebuild. The cost of winning the cup in the late 2000s and committing to extending the playoff streak they had, they emptied the future. Detroit is not going to be good for a while. They currently have the best odds of drafting Alexis Lafreniere come draft day, but still, they won’t go from being the second rendition of the Dead Wings to a contender like that (ok that may be harsh, but you get the point.)
So what does Detroit need?
Well…
Everything. Last in Goals For, Last in Goals Against. Anything would help.
So let’s try.
Minnesota gets Dylan Larkin, a player who can keep up with Fiala’s speed and has a great offensive game, and trade away Dumba (talented offensive defenseman), both 2020 First Round picks (help the Red Wings rebuilt faster), and a throw-in 4th round pick next season. I have the most trouble evaluating what exactly the Wings need. An offensive defenseman isn’t likely high on that list, they need scoring, but probably isn’t best to focus on the Blue Line for that.
Could maybe alter this trade by adding on a Louie Belpedio, drop the 4th round pick and the worst of the first-round picks, but maybe uneven.
Somewhat similar trade proposal, but Minnesota also gets Mastrosimone, who has some offensive skill but won’t drive a line on his own (which is perfectly fine, it’s not why we get him). Detroit gets Brodin (excellent defenseman, skates phenomenally, his defense is sound), Mat Robson (played well in Iowa, builds their Goalie Pipeline), Minnesota’s First Round pick in 2020, and the throw-in 4th from 2021.
I think Detroit would rather get Brodin than Dumba, they’d value the defensive upside more. Could potentially drop off Mastrosimone, Robson, and the 2021 4th round pick by a “sign and trade”, extending Brodin to give the Red Wings more control and security. Minnesota would maybe need to add the other first-round pick, could probably get away with either a 2020 3rd round or 2020 2nd round.
Huh. I just realized all the teams I’ve targeted are in the Atlantic as well. Weird.
Thanks for reading this gargantuan piece. About 10 hours of work and 4000 words.
Let me know your thoughts on any of the ideas mentioned above. Do I need to work on my trade evaluations (answer: Yes absolutely, I’m way out of practice
)? Any ideas of your own? Drop them down below.