The Minnesota Wild’s Goalie Conundrum and How to Fix it

The Minnesota Wild’s biggest weakness this season was the performance of the Netminders. What exactly could they do to fix the most impactful position?

It’s no secret that the Minnesota Wild’s Goaltending was severely lacking this season. Even marginal improvements in net would have put the Wild in serious contention for a Divisional Playoff Spot, rather than vying for a Wild Card spot. Minnesota only played themselves into a postseason position because of a goaltending heater Alex Stalock had, where he started eighteen of the last twenty-five Wild games, with a record of 11-5-2, and a save percentage of .920, a step of from his season save percentage of .910, which is league average.

For goalies with at least ten games played, Alex Stalock’s eighteen game stretch, if it were played over an entire season, would put him tied for thirteenth in the league with Robin Lehner and Ben Bishop. Now, I don’t think Stalock is in that same threshold as either of those goalies. Stalock being tied for 34th in the league with his season-long save percentage of the league average .910 feels more right.

The Minnesota Wild as a whole ranks 20th in the league for a team save percentage with a .915. Looking at teams ahead of them, there’s a lot of expected teams: Boston, Dallas, and Tampa. But some teams rank better in Save Percentage than Minnesota that just are not better teams than the Wild as a whole. For example, Chicago, Columbus, Buffalo, and the Senators all rank better than Minnesota in save percentage but as a team is not better than the Wild.

So what are the Minnesota Wild to do? Can they rely on an improvement in play from thee goalies they currently have? Do they promote their minor league goalie who has been previously rated as the best goalie outside of the NHL? Or does the answer come from outside the organization?

Dubnyk has been commanding the net for some time. Does he have what it takes to get Minnesota to the next level still?

Since the 2014-2015 season (when Dubnyk joined the Wild midway through the season), Devan Dubnyk has played in 347 games, 328 have been with the Wild- the second most in the league. Dubnyk’s efforts in the 2014-2015 season after joining the Wild got him fourth place in Hart Trophy voting, third in Vezina Trophy voting, and won him the Masterton Trophy, an award for the NHL player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to ice hockey.

In that 2014-2015 season, Devan Dubnyk was second in the league with a save percentage of .929. In the 2015-2016 season, Dubnyk didn’t prevent as many goals, but he still was above league average with a .918. Dubnyk would perform above league average goaltending (some seasons better than others) until this season when he was significantly below the league average .910 save percentage with a dismal .890.

Dubnyk’s poor performance could be attributed to a pair of things. First and foremost, the Minnesota Wild were awful early in the season. In mid-November, the Minnesota Wild were in sole position of last place in the league. It certainly couldn’t help his performance, but even still, Dubnyk struggled in net leading up to and after the Wild managed to briefly hold a Wild Card spot. Maybe he carried the poor performance early as unnecessary baggage which affected his play later in the season.

Another consideration with Devan Dubnyk’s performance this season- Health Issue at home. It’s known that Jennifer Dubnyk dealt with a serious medical condition. Devan started the season 0-5 and then missed about a month of the season to be with family during the concerning time. It seems the condition (whatever it may have been) has been treated and that Jenn Dubnyk is now doing well.

It certainly couldn’t have been easy for Dubnyk to focus on hockey knowing in the back of his mind that his spouse wasn’t fully healthy. Even using hockey as a distraction after it was determined he could return to the net, there could definitely be a subconscious nagging in his mind that prevented him from being 100%. It’s possible he even gamed himself by trying so hard to make the perfect save/play that any mistake could open the flood gates for the rest of the game. This season, Devan Dubnyk allowed 3+ goals in twenty of his thirty starts, six of those were wins for the Wild. It’s clear he wasn’t on top of his game and it was unreasonable the ask the skaters to shoot the lights out and win one for him every single game.

Finally, age may have caught up with the Saskatchewan Goaltender. He just turned 34 which is about the time we start to see goaltenders decline in performance. With the number of games he’s played since joining the Wild (again second-most in the league), it’s completely possible he burned himself out.

Towards the end of play this year, it became more and more apparent that Alex Stalock was the better goalie this season. Let’s dive into him next.

Alex Stalock got hot this season. Is he for real or is this just a one-off?

As mentioned early, Alex Stalock has had a career year this season. In the eighteen games he played before the season ended, he went 11-5-2 and had a .920 save percentage. For the year, he was about league average save percentage (.910) and a 2.67 GAA which is better than the league average 2.82.

The issue with this is he’s only been at or better than league average only two other seasons. In the 2017-2018 season, he was only a hair below league average with a .910 save percentage and a 2.85 GAA (league avg was .912 and 2.78), and in his first full season in 2013-2014, Alex Stalock had a phenomenal .932 save percentage and a 1.87 GAA (league avg was .914 and 2.56).

So at near 33years old, is Alex Stalock really developing into a starting goaltender in the NHL? Difficult to say.

Alex Stalock is also in the rare breed of undersized goaltenders in the NHL. Hockey Reference lists Stalock at a perhaps generous 6′ 0″. Even more uncommon is how much Stalock plays the puck compared to other goalies and it seems like even the Wild Social Media Managers are aware of this:

He’s also got a much more “team-friendly” contract than Dubnyk. Stalock is at $785k a year for two more seasons vs Duby’s $4.3M for one more year. So the Wild are getting better goaltending (at least right now) for cheaper.

The question is consistency. Will we continue to see this type of performance from Stalock? One pattern that arose while the Wild were riding Stalock is that he would play fairly well and win games for the Wild and then have an absolute stinker. This season, in games that he’s started, Stalock has lost games allowing 4+ goals eight times this season, six of which are in the last twenty-two games.

So maybe the game plan shouldn’t be just giving the net to Stalock, but rather split the net on a near 50/50? It seems to be the new dominant strategy for dominant teams:

Boston Bruins, Stanley Cup Runner Up split the net between Tuuka Rask and Jaroslav Halak 46GP/40GP.

Dallas Stars, who lost to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion, split goaltending time between Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin with 46 GP/41GP.

New York Islanders, swept Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round, split time in net between Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss 46GP/43GP.

It appears management and coaching staff have realized that they can get a bit extra out of each goaltender by giving closer to an equal timeshare in the net. It keeps your 1A fresh and in peak condition for longer and ideally the more important times, and it’ll keep your 1B in playing shape and effective should he be needed because of poor performance by the 1A or an injury.

What do the Wild do if Stalock isn’t the longterm answer in the net?

Kaapo Kahkonen looked solid in his brief stint with the Pro Squad. After a very good year on the Farm, is it time to bring him in for the long haul?

Listed at 6’2″, Minnesota’s fourth-round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft is looking like he could be the real deal. Kaapo Kahkonen was called up this season while Dubnyk was attending to family matters and got in net for five games. The Finnish Goaltender would go 3-1-1 with a .913 save percentage and a 2.96 Goals Against Average.

It was fairly clear that the Wild tried to shelter him, giving him starts against weaker teams like New Jersey, Florida, Anaheim, and Chicago, but did get to see him perform against a high octane offense in the Edmonton Oilers. In each of his first three starts (NJD, FLA, and ANA) he only allowed two goals a game, getting two wins and a shootout loss. In his last two games, he allowed five goals against Edmonton and four against Chicago, a win and a loss for the young tender.

What’s more significant is how he’s performed in Iowa and how it’s grabbed the attention of evaluators around the league. In 34 games played for the Iowa Wild this year, he averaged only 2.07 GAA and had a save percentage of .927. The season prior in Iowa, his first year playing on North American ice, he averaged 2.78 GAA and a .908 save percentage in 39 games played. Those are pretty good numbers for someone who’s only spent two years in the second-best hockey league in the world.

The Hockey Writers recently put out an article listing the best NHL Goalie Prospects and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen ranked second only to Nashville’s Connor Ingram. Greg Boysen said this of Kahkonen:

This season, he has gone from impressive rookie to one of the top AHL goaltenders. He is fourth in the league with a 2.08 GAA and .927 SV% and his 25 wins and seven shutouts are the most among all AHL netminders. His 13 career shutouts are the Iowa franchise record for the most by any goaltender. His calm and controlled demeanor, as well as great positioning, has made the transition to the North American game a smooth one for Kahkonen. He moves from post to post fluidly and has tremendous rebound control. He got his first taste of the NHL with five starts earlier this season and it sure won’t be the last we see of him at the game’s highest level.

Now I do not think it’s wise to just hand the keys to the car to Kahkonen. I believe the Wild should go 1A/1B with Stalock (or a different Goalie) and Kahkonen to get Kaapo comfortable in net and eventually hand him the reigns. This move makes more than a modicum of sense as the Wild have a suddenly deep goaltending pipeline: Iowa Wild’s Kaapo Kahkonen, former Golden Gopher/Current Iowa Wild Mat Robson, Petersborough Petes Hunter  Jones, UMass Amherst’s Filip Lindberg, and even 6’6″ Derek Baribeau on the ECHL’s Allen Americans. By promoting Kaapo Kahkonen to the NHL roster, you create an opportunity for another prospect to get more development and refinement.

What other options do the Wild have if they feel Kaapo isn’t enough?

The Market is Ripe for Team’s Looking to Pickup a Goaltender. Who Could the Wild Look at?

There’s an interesting amount of Goalie’s who are/could be available in the upcoming offseason (whenever that may be). First, we’ll go over goalies that’ll be available in Free Agency.

Robin Lehner

Didn’t it seem rather odd that Lehner ended up in Chicago? After an excellent season on Long Island, it would have made a lot of sense to see him get a 3-5yr contract with the Islanders. Instead, New York made a run at Sergei Bobvrosky (at least according to the rumor mill), and let Lehner walk. And of all the places Lehner could have gone, he ended up in Chicago, a team that looked like they were actively on the decline? Just odd.

Now Stan Bowman could have flipped Lehner for a ransom. Lehner stole some games for the Blackhawks. In the 31 games he started, he went 16-10-5 with a .918 save percentage and a 3.01 GAA. Instead, Bowman traded away one of the few highlights of the Blackhawks this season for Malcolm Subban, Stanislav Demin, and a 2nd rd pick in the 2020 draft. Demin, a prospect, hasn’t done much for the Denver Pioneers in his two seasons there, only 23 points in 75 games. Perhaps it could be because the Pioneers have a deep roster, but who knows.

Bowman should have commanded a much higher price for Lehner, especially with what Vegas could realistically give, OR Bowman should have extended Lehner and used him to rebuild that roster with. Instead, he did neither.

Lehner has been a solid tender for the last couple of seasons. In the past five seasons, he has been at or above .920 save percentage for four of the five seasons, the only season he failed to do so, the Buffalo Sabres finished last in the league. Lehner is currently making $5M this season.

Lehner’s ability to consistently make a high volume of saves per game compounded with the Wild’s strong defensive core could greatly allow for a team that is maximum security in their own end.

Braden Holtby

The 2015-2016 Vezina Winner, 2016-2017 Jennings Winner, 2x All-Star, and 2018 Stanley Cup Champion, Braden Holtby has built a solid resume. The Trophy Cabinet shelters a rather unimpressive season this year. In 48GP, Holtby has only saved .897 percentage of shots and allows on average 3.11 goals a game.

Now, Holtby might be experiencing a bit of what Dubnyk has. Since 2014-2015, only one goalie has played more games than Dubnyk and that is Braden Holtby. Since the 2014-2015 season, Braden Holtby has played over 66% of games in a season. The poor season this year may be due to the heavy workload he’s had for over five seasons.

Holtby is currently making $6.1M AAV so what may he command in this upcoming free agency? Who knows. The pandemic may make it difficult for teams to spend, it’s near impossible for the cap to rise next season.

The other concern is will Holtby return to tip-top shape? Through his career, he’s had a save percentage around .913 and a GAA of 2.53. At 30, I think he could certainly return to form. The Capitals aren’t exactly the most defensively sound of teams that could help his stat line.

Holtby could also use a bit of a lightened workload, which would work hand in hand with bringing up Kaapo Kahkonen.

Jacob Markstrom

Jacob Markstrom is a UFA at the end of the season, but I struggle to see the 6′ 6″ tender leaving British Columbia. He’s been a model of consistency since playing his first full season for Vancouver, consistently around .915 save percentage and a GAA of 2.73. Still, he could depart and it’s worth mentioning the idea of the Wild joining him.

Can’t forget that the Canucks have Thatcher Demko and Michael DiPietro who could be ready for full-time duty.

This season we’ve seen several teams carry more than the typical two goalies. Could lead to the possibility of a goalie on the move.

Matt Murray

Technically an RFA, Matt Murray is due for a new contract. However, the Penguins have a bit of a jam in the net. In his 4th full season in the league, he’s shared the net more evenly than other goalies listed earlier, but this is the first season he struggled. He’s allowing more goals than typical (2.87GAA, .899 save percentage) and Tristan Jarry got the All-Star bid over Murray and is performing better this year (2.43 GAA, .921 save percentage).

The season prior, Casey DeSmith backed up Murray and performed very well, .916 save percentage and 2.75 GAA. For whatever reason, he lost out the backup job to Jarry. This year in the AHL, he’s stopped .905 of shots and allowed 2.92 goals a game, which isn’t great.

Here’s the thing. Murray will likely command a more expensive contract and with the elite talent on that roster, the Penguins need to save some money where they can. Tristan Jarry is due for a new contract as well, but with less experience, he’ll likely garner a less expensive contract. DeSmith is under contract for one more season at 1.25M.

The Penguins have made tough decisions with goalies in the past. They did not protect Marc Andre Fleury in the expansion draft and even gave Vegas a 2nd Round pick in this year’s draft to ensure they took Fleury.

So, it wouldn’t be shocking that they make another tough decision about a netminder, especially to save money. They do have money coming off the books in the form of Justin Schultz’s ($5.5M) if they don’t resign him, Patrick Marleau ($700k), various RFAs that they could/could not resign, and Conor Sheary who’s making $2M. It should be noted they have money coming back onto the books in the shape of Jake Guentzel’s $6M currently on LTIR.

I’m not sure where they’re sitting in terms of who they want to resign and who they’re fine letting walk, but I think they could make a sign and trade or even just trade the negotiating rights to Matt Murray for a package of either prospects, cheaper forwards, and/or draft picks, which is how teams with elite talents, like the Penguins, need to do to continue to be good. Pay your stars, save money where you can.

Alexander Georgiev

It looked like the Rangers wanted to move Alexander Georgiev at the trade deadline but nobody was willing to bite the bullet and pay their price. He is an RFA at the end of the season as well, but it’s another situation in which Rangers management could try to flip the young goalie into picks, prospects, etc to try to accelerate their rebuild.

I’ve rather admired what the Rangers have done to rebuild their team. Just two seasons ago, Rangers Ownership sent a letter out to their season ticket holders and ultimately their fans to explain their reasoning for the rebuild. The 2018 Rangers were on the bubble and legitimately could have made the playoffs, but they made the tough decision and elected to pull the chute and rebuild.

Now they’ve almost rebuilt into a contending window, signed a top-five winger in the league with Artemi Panarin, and have built an exciting roster.

Here’s another team with three goaltenders who need to make a decision. The Rangers have Alexander Georgiev, Igor Shestorkin, and Henrik Lundqvist.

Their choice may be easier than it seems though. Shestorkin got more time in net later in the season and appeared to be performing rather well. Georgiev took a bit of a step back from last season, but still could be viable if needed. Lundqvist managed to save .905 of shots faced, but still averaged over 3 goals a game and is only getting older, already at 38 years old. Lundqvist is due $8.5M for one more year before his contract is off the books, but with creative cap management, they could bury it in LTIR.

So Georgiev could be had if the Wild were willing to pay the price, or they could even get creative and trade Dubnyk and Lundqvist, each at 50% salary retained. This could work for both sides fairly well, the Rangers get a bit more cap space to work with, have a goalie closer to his prime to mentor the young goalies, and if either are not quite ready for the pro roster, Dubnyk could plugin as a capable filler.

Lundqvist would almost definitely be put on LTIR in Minnesota, which they could handle with the cap space they’ve created, and promote Kahkonen to the Pro Roster as mentioned earlier.