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Calder Trophy Tracking: Ranking Kirill Kaprizov and NHL’s Top Rookies

By Aaron Heckmann

Jan 24, 2021; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov (97) carries the puck during the second period against the San Jose Sharks at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 24, 2021; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov (97) carries the puck during the second period against the San Jose Sharks at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports /
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Kirill Kaprizov is the Minnesota Wild’s most recent contender for the Calder Trophy and in the first installment of Calder Trophy tracking and rankings, we’ll track his chances with the other top NHL rookies. Nearly a quarter through the NHL season, let’s do our first check-in on the Calder Trophy race.

Editor’s Note: These rankings are compiled using a combination of analytics, points, and the eye-test. These power rankings are not ranked on who I think is going to win, it is based on who I think deserves to win.

15. K’Andre Miller (NYR): He has had a quality start to his NHL career. The youngster holds a 46.94 CF% and a 48.66 xGF%, both of which are poor. However, in 13 games, the 21-year-old defenseman has 1 goal, 3 assists, and 4 points. While he has been below-average defensively, he has been very impactful offensively.

14. Nathan Bastian (NJD): The 23-year-old winger has been a pleasant surprise for the New Jersey Devils this season. He has a 48.62 CF% and a 47.64 xGF%, both of which are poor. However, he has increased his teams’ rate of scoring when he is on the ice as displayed by his rate of goals for per hour.

He has also been above-average in generating offense. Furthermore, he has been a quality shot suppressor, albeit he has allowed a fair share of high-danger offensive opportunities.

13. John Leonard (SJS): He has been a quality depth piece for the Sharks this season While he has been poor offensively, he has been elite defensively. He ranks 4th in expected goals against per hour among all NHL forwards.

12. Zach Whitecloud (VGK): He has been a nice addition to the Golden Knights defensive core and has most certainly held his own so far this season. The 24-year-old defenseman has a 49.33 CF% and a 49.26 xGF%. He has 2 goals, 2 assists, and 4 points through 13 games.

He has been below-average offensively but has been strong defensively which is displayed by his strong expected goals against per hour.

Feb 9, 2021; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars, #21 Jason Robertson Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 9, 2021; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars, #21 Jason Robertson Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

11. Jason Robertson (DAL): If he continues this over the course of the season, Robertson will see himself near the very top in the Calder Trophy race. The 21-year-old winger has 2 goals, 3 assists, and 5 points in 7 games. He has a 57.82 CF% and a 64.04 xGF%.

He has been above-average at generating offense and defensively as displayed by his above-average rates in expected goals for per hour and expected goals against per hour. He has also increased his teams’ rate of scoring too as displayed by his goals for per hour which is above-average league-wide.

10. Phillip Kurashev (CHI): While this is probably higher than he should be, I will give him the benefit of the doubt. It is still early in the season and it is still a small sample size. He is tied for the league-lead 4 goals among rookies and has 8 points, which ranks 4th among rookies.

His underlying numbers aren’t as favorable to him. He has a 47.34 CF% and a 48.10 xGF%. He has been below-average offensively and defensively in terms of his underlying numbers.

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9. Josh Norris (OTT): Here’s a prospect that has had a decent start to the season, despite the Senators horrible start to the 2020-21 season. The 21-year-old forward has a 57.23 CF% and a 64.78 xGF%

While he has generated a ton of offense, he is below-average at affecting his teams’ rate of scoring. However, he has been average defensively which is a good quality for a rookie. He is tied for second in scoring among rookies with 3 goals, 6 assists, and 9 points.

8. Pierre-Oliver Joseph (PIT): The 21-year-old rookie defenseman has been good so far this season. He has a 50.63 CF%, but a very low 42.64 xGF% He has 1 goal, 4 assists, and 5 points in 9 games. While he has struggled defensively, he has been excellent offensively. He increases his teams’ rate of scoring while he’s on the ice and is also decent at generating offense too.

7. Artem Zub (OTT): He might be the most under-the-radar rookie right now. The 25-year-old rookie defenseman has been very impactful this season. His 56.28 CF% and a 45.61 xGF%, the latter being unimpressive. It has been a smaller sample size since he has only played 8 games.

In those 8 games, he has 1 goal and 2 assists. While he has been just below-average at generating offense league-wide, he has increased his teams’ rate of scoring when he’s on the ice. Likewise, he has been very strong defensively and has displayed his ability to play a two-way game.

Feb 11, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Blackhawks, #24 Pius Suter Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 11, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Blackhawks, #24 Pius Suter Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports /

6. Pius Suter (CHI): The Blackhawks have been one of the most surprising teams this season and that is because of the strong performances by their rookies. The 24-year-old rookie has a 53.57 CF% and a 55.60 xGF% which rank 10th and 4th respectively among rookies.

He has been average in generating offense and being effective defensively, but he has excelled at increasing his teams scoring rate as well as being elite on the power-play. Likewise, he has 6 goals and 4 assists in 10 games which leads all rookie scoring.

5. Ty Smith (NJD): The New Jersey Devils have been one of the biggest surprises this season and one of the reasons why is because of how terrific Ty Smith has been. Among players who have played 100 minutes (to ensure that players with a few games are not accounted for), Smith’s 58.86 CF% ranks second among rookies.

Likewise, his 53.70 xGF% ranks among the top 10 among rookies. He has been very strong offensively in terms of points and underlying numbers. He has 2 goals, 6 assists, and 8 points in 9 games. Furthermore, he has excelled offensively but has struggled defensively. He could arguably be higher but he has been a defensive liability despite being elite offensively.

4. Nils Hoglander (VAN): The 20-year-old rookie winger has had a strong rookie season so far. He has 3 goals, 4 assists, and 7 points in 19 games. He has a 57.04 CF% and a 58.36 xGF%. While he has allowed a larger volume of shots than league-average, they have been mostly low-danger, nearly league-average in expected goals against per hour.

Most importantly, he has generated a ton of offense for the Canucks as he ranks 11th among all forwards league-wide in expected goals for per hour.

3. Igor Shesterkin (NYR): After playing and excelling in 13 games last season, he has continued that this season. The 25-year-old rookie goaltender has a .922 save percentage in 9 games. He has a 4.65 goals saved above average and a 3.11 goals saved above expected which ranks 12th and 9th respectively.

2. Kevin Lankinen (CHI): The 25-year-old rookie goaltender has singlehandedly saved the Chicago Blackhawks so far this season. He has had a phenomenal start to his NHL career and is a legitimate candidate for the Calder, despite how uncommon it is for goalies to win the award. He has a .925 save percentage in 11 games.

Looking at goals saved above average – which takes the league’s average save percentage and applies it to the workload the goaltender has faced – Lankinen’s 7.2 GSAA ranks 4th among all goaltenders. Furthermore, he has saved 3.04 goals more than expected when taking into account shot quality which ranks 10th among all goalies.

Jan 30, 2021; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Wild, #97 Kirill Kaprizov Mandatory Credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 30, 2021; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Wild, #97 Kirill Kaprizov Mandatory Credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports /

1. Kirill Kaprizov (MIN): After nearly 6 years since being drafted, Kaprizov finally made his NHL and Wild debut. It was widely accepted that everyone needs to temper their expectations because it is a significant transition from the KHL to the NHL. However, Kaprizov has exceeded all expectations and has been a force for the Wild. He has been one of their best forwards to start the season.

The 23-year-old winger has 3 goals, 6 assists, and 9 points in 12 games. He is tied for second in points and has played 4 fewer games than the player tied with him and the player ahead of him. His on-ice goals for per hour is near the top of the league. Furthermore, he holds a 55.22 expected goals for percentage and a 60.82 Corsi for percentage. It is really important to note that Kaprizov has been just below-average defensively league-wide which is impressive for a rookie.

Just missed: Nicholas Beaudin (CHI), Evan Bouchard (EDM), Logan O’ Connor (COL), Brandon Hagel (CHI), Bowen Byram (COL), Olli Juolevi (VAN), Dylan Cozens (BUF) & Alexander Romanov (MTL)

Notable Rookies With Poor Underlying Numbers: Tim Stutzle (OTT), Vitek Vanecek (WSH) & Alexis Lafreniere (NYR)

(All Data and Information Via Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, & Hockey-Reference)

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