With the new CBA extension signed and ready to kick in before the start of the 2026-27 season, the clock is officially on for teams and players looking to extend contracts that conclude at the end of the 2025-26 season. There are some pretty big names out there that could, at least theoretically, reach free agency in the summer of 2026. Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, and Artemi Panarin could all cash in if they make it to July 1. Oh yeah, there is one other skater that needs a new deal - Kirill Kaprizov. The question for all of these players is simple - should we wait, or sign a deal now?
If Kaprizov is looking to cash in for the big money deal, the details of the new CBA give the Minnesota Wild the best chance to make that happen. According to reports, any extension signed prior to the new agreement starting can be structured under the current guidelines. There are three major benefits for both Kaprizov and the Wild if they get the deal done sooner rather than later.
Contract Length
One of the biggest contract changes under the new CBA is the maximum length of contracts. Unrestricted free agents on the market will be able to sign six-year deals as opposed to the current seven while teams re-signing their own players can offer seven years instead of eight, which is the max as of today.
So, if Kaprizov wants the maximum-length deal, the only team that can offer it to him is the Wild. For the 28-year-old forward, this could be his one shot at maxing out his value as any other multi-year deal pushes him over the age of 30 when the value of contract extensions and new deals starts to drop.
Mitchell Marner just signed an eight-year deal that has an AAV of $12 million, matching Miko Rantanen’s extension which also kicks in next season. Those are two fairly comparable players to Kaprizov, so if he was to slightly exceed their deals and sign for $13.5 million, that would be $108 million over eight seasons. Not a bad little bit of business.
Should Kaprizov wait until July 1, and still want that $108 million payday, teams would have to allow for a deal that pays out $18 million per season. That’s quite a jump even with the salary cap increase scheduled for next season. It will limit the number of suitors, especially contenders, that can offer him that much money.
Signing Bonus Structure
Many of the league’s top players actually play for close to the league minimum in yearly salary. Austin Matthews played for $775,000 as did Nathan MacKinnon. Even McDavid’s bi-weekly checks were based off of a $3,000,000 salary despite a $12,500,000 cap hit. Why? Because the bulk of their contracts were paid as signing bonuses. Matthews received a bonus of $15,925,000. MacKinnon’s check was $15,725,00 while McDavid’s was a paltry $7,000,000.
There are several reasons why players have done it. First off, it’s always nice to have the cash in hand up front as opposed to dolling it out throughout the year. After all, if you won the PowerBall would you take a lump sum or yearly payments? Second, signing bonuses are paid out even if the owners lock the players out during a work stoppage. Now, the second factor isn’t as big of a deal for Kaprizov, considering the league and players’ union have labor peace until at least 2030, but any long term deal does take him past the current agreement, so it’s nice to have in the back pocket.
Speaking of the new agreement, signing bonuses are capped at 60% of the total deal. There will be no more $1,000,000-a-year salaries with the rest paid out as bonuses. So, if we go back to the theoretical $108 million deal. If Kaprizov signs it now, he could take a base salary of $1,000,000 for each of the eight years leaving the other $100 million to be paid out in lump sums spread out over the contract.
Should he wait, at least $43.2 million would have to be paid in base salary with the remaining $64.8 million eligible for salaries. While it seems like a minor problem to have, after all $108 million is a nice chunk of change no matter how it’s split up, there are some major impacts in terms of long-term value in regards to inflation, interest, and financial flexibility that come with the ability to get as much of the money as early as possible.
In the new deal between the NHL and NHLPA there is some tweaking in the percentages between the value of the first year of the deal and the final year of the deal that spreads things out a little more evenly to eliminate front-loaded contracts.
Deferred Payments
This might be more of a benefit to the Wild than to Kaprizov, but the new CBA eliminates the growing trend of deferred payments. While no team has gone to the lengths the Los Angeles Dodgers did with Shohei Ohtani (or, for a different generation, the New York Mets and Bobby Bonilla) deferred contracts were becoming more of a thing in the NHL in recent years.
A couple of summers ago the Carolina Hurricanes signed Seth Jarvis to a contract extension that included $15.67 million in deferred payments that run until 2032, well after the contract has expired.
Teams like it because it can lower a cap hit (check out PuckPedia’s explanation) while also freeing up actual cash. Players do receive the small benefit of knowing that the checks will keep coming even after the contract ends, but in most cases they prefer to have it up front.
For all of the folks that try to calculate cap hits, the good news is that this is going away. There will be no deferred payment options under the new agreement and all money has to be paid within the contracted years (excluding buyouts).
So, there is a little sense of urgency now to get a contract done prior to July 1, 2026. It’s not a lot of pressure, but hopefully enough to spur a round of talks. General manager Bill Guerin did warn fans that it wouldn’t be a quick negotiation, but by all accounts things seem to be going smoothly.
Kaprizov might be waiting to see how the Wild progress this season. With an injection of youth into the line-up they could be on the upswing in the Western Conference. However, if they falter, he may be willing to seek a new opportunity elsewhere, even if he has to take a smaller contract to get it done.