The State of Hockey... In the State of Hockey (Minnesota Wild Preseason Edition)
As the 24th season of Wild Hockey begins, is a first round series victory in the cards?
When the Minnesota Wild fans left the Xcel Energy Center on April 26, 2015, they never would have imagined the State of Hockey's most beloved team wouldn't taste the kind of success they enjoyed that night for some time. The Wild, who had just finished off the Central Division Champion St. Louis Blues in the Western Conference First Round, won the playoff series 4-2.
Playoff success was short-lived as the Minnesota Wild were swept in the next round by the Chicago Blackhawks, beginning an agonizing drought of Stanley Cup Playoffs success. Including this series loss, the Wild have been defeated in an opening-round series eight straight times and is now a franchise entering its tenth season without advancing in the playoffs.
Today, only two members from the 2014-15 series-winning squad remain... the perpetually underrated Jonas Brodin and current Wild team captain, Jared Spurgeon. Current Wild color commentator Ryan Carter was nearing the end of his career that season, and cap killers Zach Parise and Ryan Suter were kneedeep in their currently cumbersome monster contracts. The midseason trade for the now-retired Devan Dubnyk seemingly saved the season.
Mixed in throughout the Wild's drought have been glimmers of hope... Alex Stalock's beautiful shutout in the 2020 COVID bubble during the first game of the Western Conference Qualifying Round made it look like the Wild had a great chance to get past the Canucks. Fighting back from a 3-1 deficit to force a decisive game seven with the Golden Knights in 2021 made for an excited fan base. After finishing the 2021-22 season with a franchise record in wins and points, the Wild took a 2-1 lead over the Blues when they stole back home ice with a victory during game three in St. Louis. In 2023, the Wild secured a thrilling game-one double overtime win over the Stars (remember Filip Gustavson's epic 51-save performance) and took a 2-1 lead a few nights later with a resounding 5-1 win.
Ultimately, each series came down to the same unfavorable outcome... first-round ousters. The Canucks rattled off three straight wins to advance in 2020. The Golden Knights thumped the Wild at home in game seven in 2021. The Blues switched out Husso for Binnington in goal and promptly won three straight to take the series in 2022. The Stars won three straight to send the Wild packing in 2023.
Missing the playoffs altogether last season, the biggest obstacle to potential success remains as the franchise begins the new campaign. The Wild have 16.76% of their total cap space tied up in the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter (anyone who believes that keeping Parise and Suter on the Wild, instead of the buyout, helps us win a series the past few seasons is certifiably insane), but this is the last season the hit on the salary cap will be this substantial. Alas, Minnesota has been also-rans as a franchise the past few offseasons, with little to no ability to push the needle in terms of team improvements through free agency.
The New York Times recently placed the Wild's playoff chances for this season at 47%. The overwhelming majority of The Atlantic's NHL staff is of the opinion that Minnesota will miss the postseason for the second consecutive year. BetMGM gives the Wild the ninth-best odds of being a playoff team in the Western Conference. Confidence outside of The State of Hockey couldn't be lower for the upcoming season. These predictions are disheartening at best but, at the same time, have merit.
Since Wild GM Bill Guerin initiated the Parise/Suter buyouts, he has made multiple deals that seemingly brightened the Wild's future, only to follow them up with one that is equally head-scratching.
Matt Boldy's seven-year, $49,000,000 extension? Yes, please!
Frederick Gaudreau's five-year, $10,500,000 contract? Say what?
Joel Eriksson Ek's eight-year, $42 million extension? Bravo!
Marcus Foligno getting paid $4 million at age 37? Ehhhh...
Brock Faber's eight-year, $68,000,000 extension! Bing!
Filip Gustavson's three-year, $11,250,000 deal? It hurts right now.
It is complicated for me to fully trust Guerin at this point. So, it is easy to imagine what Kirill Kaprozov is thinking. With two years left on his deal, the team must give him a reason to believe better days are ahead, and the idea of the most celebrated player in franchise history walking at the end of this current deal keeps Wild fans up at night. Making the playoffs this season and winning a series would be a stellar start. We do have 13,000,000+ reasons to be excited going into next offseason. Or do we...
We have a glut of young talent that will start the season in the NHL. The under-25 crowd is thrilling: Wallstedt (21), Faber (22), Rossi (23), Ohgren (20), Khusnutdinov (22), Boldy (23)... added to the pair of 27-year-old franchise cornerstones in Kaprizov and Erikkson Ek. Electrifying times seem to be ahead, but do those 13,000,000 reasons for excitement rapidly disappear when thinking of impending extensions? Guerin has his work cut out for him, but is he the mastermind that he makes himself appear? Is his double-secret long-term plan for hockey success sound? Will Guerin's job become considerably more or less complicated if these youngsters play well this season?
Even with all the question marks this team has and the overall difficulty of the Western Conference this upcoming season, my prediction is that if the Minnesota Wild make the playoffs, they will win a series. Making the playoff field would mean they avoided the significant injuries that have derailed the team in the past, the young guys ended up competing at an elite level, and the older half of the roster held up. There is enough here to make a run despite our self-induced financial disadvantages.
Now, all we can do is sit back and periodically check our heart rates and blood pressure after we clear our social calendars to watch our beloved Wild take the ice for the 24th season. Perhaps the 24th time is indeed the charm.