After years of living in the middle of the NHL’s hierarchy, the Minnesota Wild can officially call themselves Stanley Cup contenders. A solid season where they advanced past the first round for the first time since 2015 is part of the optimism, but so is a blossoming core that includes Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber and Quinn Hughes.
While Hughes’s future is up in the air as he negotiates a contract extension, it’s a pretty good start that has players across the NHL wanting to come to Minnesota. But even if Dylan Larkin makes his way over from the Detroit Red Wings, it may not solve the supporting cast that Bill Guerin needs to build as the team’s general manager.
The evidence comes from a list of confidence rankings produced by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn. While Central Division rivals including the Utah Mammoth (fifth), Dallas Stars (eighth) and Colorado Avalanche (ninth) reside in the top 10, Wild fans had to scroll a little longer to find Minnesota at 16th. While Guerin earned a “C” grade overall thanks to his performance and trades and overall vision, the last piece of the puzzle is putting the correct complementary players next to his championship-level core.
“When it comes to the core, the Wild are firing on all cylinders – even if Kirill Kaprizov ended up a little overpaid. It’s the supporting cast where things fall back a bit,” Luszczyszyn wrote.”Minnesota’s ability to surround the core with capable support is largely in question and the cost paid to do so feels like another issue on top of that. Minnesota has the core to go the distance. It’s the rest of the team that separates the Wild from the league’s best both on the ice and here.”
Bill Guerin’s biggest problem is building the Wild’s supporting cast
The first part of Luszczyszyn’s comments confirm what Wild fans already know. Hughes is one of the top players – let alone defensemen – in the NHL and Minnesota’s rise to relevance came when he arrived in a blockbuster trade last December. Boldy and Faber signed team-friendly contracts that have aged like wine and Kaprizov’s offensive ability has been carrying the Wild for a long time, even if it comes at a price of $17 million per year.
This is the main reason why Wild fans feel differently about Guerin locally than the national audience does with 73.5 percent of a fan survey conducted at The Athletic listed either a four or a five in a five-point confidence scale on Guerin’s performance so far. Even Guerin’s peers have commended him, presenting him with the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award.
But when it comes to the supporting cast, Guerin has some work to do. The Wild did a good job of this early, handing out contract extensions for Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno and that trio helped Minnesota remain competitive while navigating the bulk of the buyout penalties from Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s contracts. While Guerin has also capitalized on some solid veterans, there are some moves on the current roster he may like to have back.
A look at the Wild’s Puckpedia page reveals the problem. The Wild have two years left on Foligno’s four-year, $16 million contract but with his offensive ability declining, Minnesota is paying a steep $4 million AAV for his leadership. Even if that’s worth it, they’re doing the same for Yakov Trenin at $3.5 million, whose niche is as an intimidating bottom-six grinder.
In some cases, the Wild have been able to get out of deals such as Jake Middleton’s four-year, $17.4 million contract extension that was sent to the Calgary Flames this summer. But there have been more whiffs including a two-year, $4 million contract for Nico Sturm and a newly-signed six-year, $20 million contract for bottom-six center Michael McCarron.
The Wild’s supporting cast will determine whether they win a Stanley Cup
While none of these deals sink the Wild because of the high-end talent, it’s created a case of studs and duds that Guerin needs to find a way to upgrade.
Part of this process could come internally. The Wild traded David Jiricek to the Philadelphia Flyers to acquire Bobby Brink and Guerin is hoping some hard work can turn him into a player that lives in the top half of the middle six. Maxim Shabanov falls into the same category, but isn’t a given to produce after a lackluster first season in the NHL with the New York Islanders.
Blake Coleman is another player that’s a gamble although he scored 20 goals and put up 35 points with the Flames last year and the Wild may hope Danila Yurov steps up as he enters his second season in Minnesota.
Those are the gambles this year and if any of those players produce – especially in the case of Brink, Yurov or Shabanov – they could have players that can fit around their core pieces. But if they don’t things will get challenging in a market where player salaries are exploding and teams have an advantage retaining their talent thanks to the rising salary cap.
Maybe pending free agents will choose Minnesota as a place they can win a cup. Perhaps another option falls out of the sky and makes the championship level core even stronger for the Wild and lessens the production needed from role players. Whatever the answer is, Guerin doesn’t have a lot of time to find it and it will determine whether the Wild can bring home the Stanley Cup.
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