Nov 19, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Ottawa Senators center Kyle Turris (7) celebrates his goal with Ottawa Senators defenseman Marc Methot (3) and Ottawa Senators right wing Bobby Ryan (6) against the Philadelphia Flyers during the third period at Wells Fargo Center. The Flyers defeated the Senators, 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Numbers Game: Ottawa Senators Edition

In a  feature that I’ll be running here on Gone Puck Wild throughout the season, before each game, I will analyse the underlying numbers for both the Wild and their next opponent to see how they match-up. Tonight’s opponent is the Ottawa Senators.

(For more info about some of the stats and terms I use in these articles, check out this great stats introduction piece).

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-Here are the underlying numbers for both teams so far this year at 5v5 Close, along with some general statistics:

 

 

 WILD  SENATORS
LEAGUE POSITION  8th  21st
HOME RECORD  10-1-2  4-5-2
ROAD RECORD  3-4-2  4-4-2
PP% 22.5% 5th 17.6% 20th
PK% 78.0% 25th 81.5% 20th

-5v5 CLOSE-

 WILD  SENATORS
FF% 55.8% 4th 46.5% 25th
Sh% 7.3% 18th 9.2% 7th
Sv% 94.8% 3rd 91.6% 21st
PDO 102.1 8th 100.8 13th
(GF%=Goals For %, CF%=Corsi For %, FF%=Fenwick For %, SF%=Shots For Percentage, Sh%=
Shooting Percentage, Sv%=Save Percentage)

  • Wow. I thought the Senators were gonna be contenders this year. Their numbers are disappointing across the board. This is looking more like a lottery pick team than a Stanley Cup contender right now.
  • The Wild are still awesome. That Sh% needs to keep moving on up though. Also, sort out the PK!

 

-Here are the 3 Best and 3 Worst players from each team in terms of  Corsi For% (puck possession) and PDO (luck). This only counts players who have played 50% of their team’s games so far:

 5v5 CLOSE

PLAYER #1

PLAYER #2

PLAYER #3

MIN CF% Top 3

KOIVU (61.4%)

PARISE (60.5%)

POMINVILLE (57.8%)

MIN CF% Worst 3

BRODZIAK (47.3%)

FONTAINE (47.4%)

HEATLEY (47.4%)

MIN PDO Top 3

COOKE (106.6)

FONTAINE (106.2) POMINVILLE (105.1)
MIN PDO Worst 3

KONOPKA (91.8)

MITCHELL (93.9) DUMBA (95.3)
OTT CF% Top 3

MACARTHUR (55.0%)

TURRIS (53.0%)

ZIBANEJED (52.4%)

OTT CF% Worst 3

KASSIAN (43.3%)

GREENING (43.6%)

SPEZZA (44.4%)

OTT PDO Top 3

MACARTHUR (107.1)

RYAN (105.9)

GRYBA (105.9)

OTT PDO Worst 3

GRANT (92.6)

CONDRA (94.8)

ZIBANEJED (95.9)

  •  Parise, Koivu and Pominville lead the way in terms of puck possession for the Wild.
  • Kyle Brodziak is the worst puck possession player, but that is a result of his “tough minutes” role.
  • Sure seems like the Leafs should have held ont Clarke MacCarthur. That guy is the possession driving forward they need.
  • What’s going on with Jason Spezza? Maybe that’s why the Sens are struggling.

 

-Here are the Player Usage Charts for both teams to illustrate which players are getting tough minutes and which players are being sheltered:

Minnesota Wild

wild vs sens

  • I’ve been saying this for the last couple of weeks, but look at Spurgeon and Scandella! They need more minutes.
  • That 3rd line is taking some punishment in tough minutes, thus making life easier for the top line, who are killing it as a result.

 

Ottawa Senators

sens vs wild

(Click To Enlarge)  (Bubble Size=Corsi On Rating. Blue Bubble=Postive. Red Bubble=Negative)

  • I saw a Wild fan describe Matt Kassian as a “potential 20 goal scorer” the other day. Unless unfunny Tweets count as goals, then that may be one of the most insane things I’ve ever heard. Look how terrible his numbers are. I’ll take Zenon Konopka instead, 10 times out of 10. Good riddance.
  • MacArthur and Turris are actually playing really tough minutes, making their numbers even more impressive. Incredible performance from those two.
  • Didn’t Zibanejed get sent down to the minors this year? He seems to be doing a great job, so that was probably a mistake.

 

 

Okay, that’s all from me. Make sure you check-out the official Gone Puck Wild Game Preview before puck-drop where you’ll get some useful insight along with all the information you need about the game.

 

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey views/analysis.

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*Numbers in this article courtesy of:

-Extra Skater

-BehindTheNet.ca

-Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

-SomeKindOfNinja.com

-HockeyAbstract.com

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Tags: 5v5 Close Advanced Stats Analysis Corsi Fancystats Fenclose Fenwick Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild Preview NHL Pdo Regression Sh% Sv% Wild Wild Game Night

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