Sep 27, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; Minnesota Wild defenseman Clayton Stoner (4) and St. Louis Blues right wing Chris Stewart (25) battle for the puck during the third period at Scottrade Center. The Blues won 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Numbers Game: St. Louis Blues Edition


In a  feature that I’ll be running here on Gone Puck Wild throughout the season, before each game, I will analyse the underlying numbers for both the Wild and their next opponent to see how they match-up. Tonight’s opponent is the St. Louis Blues.

(For more info about some of the stats and terms I use in these articles, check out this great stats introduction piece).

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-Here are the underlying numbers for both teams so far this year at 5v5 Close, along with some general statistics:

 

 

 WILD  BLUES
LEAGUE POSITION  6th  3rd
HOME RECORD  10-1-2  10-1-2
ROAD RECORD  5-4-2  6-2-1
PP% 22.4% 5th 25.6% 1st
PK% 77.49 25th 84.0% 10th

-5v5 CLOSE-

 WILD  BLUES
FF% 54.0% 7th 55.6% 3rd
Sh% 7.4% 19th 9.4% 3rd
Sv% 94.8% 4th 93.5% 8th
PDO 102.2 7th 103.0 6th
(GF%=Goals For %, CF%=Corsi For %, FF%=Fenwick For %, SF%=Shots For Percentage, Sh%=
Shooting Percentage, Sv%=Save Percentage)

  • This Blues team is a puck possession monster, and they’re reaping the rewards in their standings points.
  • Their 103.0 PDO suggests they are overachieving in terms of Sv% and Sh%, but even after some regression, they should still be a top-5 team in the league by the end of the year.
  • The Blues have the #1 ranked powerplay, going up against the Wild’s iffy PK….uh oh.
  • The Wild have slipped down the FenClose rankings a little bit after a rough stretch of games, but are still at an extremely healthy 54%.

 

-Here are the 3 Best and 3 Worst players from each team in terms of  Corsi For% (puck possession) and PDO (luck). This only counts players who have played 50% of their team’s games so far:

5v5 CLOSE

PLAYER #1

PLAYER #2

PLAYER #3

MIN CF% Top 3

KOIVU (61.3%)

PARISE (60.5%)

MITCHELL (57.9%)

MIN CF% Worst 3

BRODZIAK (45.0%)

FONTAINE (46.7%)

COOKE (47.1%)

MIN PDO Top 3

FONTAINE (107.8)

POMINVILLE (107.1)

COOKE (105.9)

MIN PDO Worst 3

DUMBA (92.8)

KONOPKA (92.9)

MITCHELL (94.1)

STL CF% Top 3

BERGLUND (58.7%)

TARASENKO (58.6%)

STEEN (58.5%)

STL CF% Worst 3

LAPIERRE (47.1%)

POLAK (47.7%)

REAVES (50.0%)

STL PDO Top 3

REAVES (108.6)

BACKES (107.8)

STEEN (106.3)

STL PDO Worst 3

SOBOTKA (93.2)

ROY (97.5)

STEWART (99.3)

 

-Here are the Player Usage Charts for both teams to illustrate which players are getting tough minutes and which players are being sheltered:

Minnesota Wild

WILD VS BLUES

  • The Wild’s 3rd lin continues to play the tough minutes and their Corsi numbers are suffering as a result.
  • Scandella, Spurgeon and, to a lesser extent, Suter are playing tough minutes too, but they’re killing it in terms of Corsi.

 

St. Louis Blues

BLUES VS WILD

(Click To Enlarge)  (Bubble Size=Corsi On Rating. Blue Bubble=Postive. Red Bubble=Negative)

  • The Blues top line is simply terrifying. They play the toughest compeition, with the lowest percentage of offensive zone starts…and absolutely crush it.
  • Speaking of terrifying, that Alex Pietrangelo/Jabe O’Meester top pairing is scary good.
  • Ryan Reaves, Maxim Lapierre and Roman Polak are weak points that should be targeted.

 

 

Okay, that’s all from me. Make sure you check-out the official Gone Puck Wild Game Preview before puck-drop where you’ll get some useful insight along with all the information you need about the game.

 

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey views/analysis.

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*Numbers in this article courtesy of:

-Extra Skater

-BehindTheNet.ca

-Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

-SomeKindOfNinja.com

-HockeyAbstract.com

Tags: 5v5 Close Advanced Stats Analysis Corsi Fancystats Fenwick Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild Preview NHL Pdo Regression Sh% St. Louis Blues Sv% Wild Wild Game Night