The Numbers Game: Colorado Avalanche

Apr 27, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Minnesota Wild defenseman Jonas Brodin (25) skates with the puck as Colorado Avalanche left wing Cody McLeod (55) pursues during the second period at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

In a  feature that I’ll be running here on Gone Puck Wild throughout the season, before each game, I will analyse the underlying numbers for both the Wild and their next opponent to see how they match-up. Tonight’s opponent is the Colorado Avalanche.

(For more info about some of the stats and terms I use in these articles, check out this great stats introduction piece).

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-Here are the underlying numbers for both teams so far this year at 5v5 Close, along with some general statistics:

 

 

 WILD  AVALANCHE
LEAGUE POSITION  9th  7th
HOME RECORD  10-2-2  9-4-0
ROAD RECORD  5-5-2  8-2-0
PP% 21.1% 8th 18.6% 15th
PK% 78.0% 24th 83.1% 13th

-5v5-

 WILD  AVALANCHE
FenClose% 53.4% 7th 49.3% 16th
Sh% 6.9% 22nd 9.0% 4th
Sv% 93.8% 6th 94.1% 4th
PDO 100.7 12th 103.1 1st
(GF%=Goals For %, CF%=Corsi For %, FF%=Fenwick For %, SF%=Shots For Percentage, Sh%=
Shooting Percentage, Sv%=Save Percentage)

  • The Avs are this year’s “team most likely to collapse down the stretch” due to their middling puck possession numbers and #1 ranked PDO.

 

 

-Here are the 3 Best and 3 Worst players from each team in terms of  Corsi For% (puck possession) and PDO (luck). This only counts players who have played 50% of their team’s games so far:

5v5

PLAYER #1

PLAYER #2

PLAYER #3

MIN CF% Top 3

KOIVU (60.4%)

PARISE (59.5%)

POMINVILLE (56.1%)

MIN CF% Worst 3

BRODZIAK (46.0%)

FONTAINE (46.6%)

BRODIN (46.8%)

MIN PDO Top 3

FONTAINE (106.6)

GRANLUND (104.5)

COOKE (103.8)

MIN PDO Worst 3

DUMBA (93.5)

KONOPKA (93.7)

MITCHELL (93.8)

COL CF% Top 3

DUCHENE (51.8%)

LANDESKOG (50.4%)

STASTNY (50.4%)

COL CF% Worst 3

CLICHE (37.7%)

BORDELEAU (40.7%)

MCLEOD (42.3%)

COL PDO Top 3

BORDELEAU (112.2)

MCLEOD (110.7)

CLICHE (108.6)

COL PDO Worst 3

PARENTEAU (99.0)

DUCHENE (99.9)

O’REILLY (100.6)

 

 

-Here are the Player Usage Charts for both teams to illustrate which players are getting tough minutes and which players are being sheltered:

Minnesota Wild

wild vs avs

 

Colorado Avalanche

avs vs wild

(Click To Enlarge)  (Bubble Size=Corsi On Rating. Blue Bubble=Postive. Red Bubble=Negative)

  • Duchene, O’Reilly and Landeskog, as you can see, are the heart and soul of this team.
  • Nathan McKinnon is getting pretty soft minutes and isn’t  doing all that well.
  • Guys like Cliche, Bordeleau, Wilson and McLeod are weak links that the Wild should look to exploit.

 

 

Okay, that’s all from me. Make sure you check-out the official Gone Puck Wild Game Preview before puck-drop where you’ll get some useful insight along with all the information you need about the game.

 

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey views/analysis.

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*Numbers in this article courtesy of:

-Extra Skater

-BehindTheNet.ca

-Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

-SomeKindOfNinja.com

-HockeyAbstract.com

Topics: Advanced Stats, Colorado Avalanche, Corsi, Fancystats, Fenwick, Minnesota Wild, Minnesota Wild Preview, NHL, Pdo, Regression, Sh%, Sv%, Wild, Wild Game Night

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