Minnesota Wild: Will the Red Wings Lose the Vanek Bet Like the Wild Did?

Recently bought out and former Minnesota Wild Winger Thomas Vanek signed a free-agent contract with the Detroit Red Wings on Friday. As Vanek starts with the Red Wings, it seems as if they might lose the Vanek gamble like the Wild did.

Only a week after being told the Minnesota Wild would be buying him out of the last year of his contract, Thomas Vanek signed with the Red Wings on Fridays’ opening day of free-agency. The former Gopher signed a 1-year deal worth a very cap friendly $2.6 million, and hopes to get his career back on track after his worst season of his career last year with the Wild. As he told Michael Russo of the Star Tribune after being bought out “As long as I can believe in myself, like I do, I’ve been working hard already and I feel good. I think I can score 25, 30 goals in the right situation”

The Red Wings seem to be a good situation for Vanek to make his comeback. They will most likely be using him in a top six forward capacity, and for sure a top nine forward. That means he’ll be used in the same way the Wild were using him. With last year’s highest goal scorer being rookie Dylan Larkin who notched only 23, the Red Wings will be looking for Vanek to put points on the board to the tune of 20 goals or more.

So in that respect the Red Wings might be falling into the same trap the Wild did when they signed Vanek. The Wild wanted Vanek to be at least one of the top three players in goal scoring if not the top player in goal scoring, but he was only able to do one of his two seasons in Minnesota (tied for 3rd with 21 goals in 2014-15). The Red Wings are counting on Vanek to be the Vanek of old and he has not been that arguably since he left Buffalo, and at age 32 he may never be that player again.

The one huge difference in how the Red Wings have gambled on Vanek vice how the Wild did, is they have protected themselves with a better contract. Basically the one-year deal makes it imperative for Vanek to produce right away and puts the pressure on him. If he says he can be a 25, 30 goal scorer he can prove it, but he’ll only have one season to do it.

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Additionally, the $2.6 million cap hit is more commensurate with his production. When the Wild gave Vanek a contract that was annually worth almost three times as much, some say they paid a price that was a bit too much and that had they signed the Vanek of 2008-09. Vanek had as he describe “a couple” of offers from other teams, but settled on the Wild. Had those other teams signed him they would have most likely paid the same money that the Wild did for Vanek. The Red Wings on the other hand, got a fair deal and a safe deal that keeps their cap structure relatively intact. The Wild blew up theirs to sign Vanek when they should have been more cautious considering the playoff performance he had with Montreal.

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So as Vanek moves on with the Red Wings into a similar situation as the Wild, one can’t help but come the conclusion that they’ll lose the Vanek bet much like the Wild did. The only difference is, it will cost them very little if they do lose, unlike the Wild who lost a lot the ability to acquire players while he was on the books and the dead cap money when they bought him out is a huge loss. Still in the back of your mind you remember how Vanek was, and it’s intriguing to think he might be that again. Then again all of us in the State of Hockey have had the feeling before.

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