The Minnesota Wild are certainly an older hockey club that has constantly looked to older players to form the core of their team. Fairly consistent play over the franchise’s 16 seasons has led to a situation whereby that core might not ever be able to form around younger players like some of the more successful NHL clubs.
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No one would ever accuse the Minnesota Wild of being a young club. The roster of the Wild currently has 13 of the 23 roster spots occupied by players who are all 25 or over. This offseason the Wild actually doubled down on that factor adding free-agents Chris Stewart and Eric Staal who are 28 and 31 respectively.
Many would point to free-agency as a great chance to get younger if the Wild wanted to. And why not who wouldn’t want the team to get a hold of some young talent that the team can leverage to build a great team for as long as they can. The shelf life of a player doesn’t run much past age 35 and so the younger you can make your group of superstars the better.
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Take for example the Pittsburgh Penguins and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Crosby is starting his 11th season and Malkin is staring his 10th season, and both are under the age of 30. Crosby is 28 and Malkin is 29, but they’ve already given the Pens two Stanley Cups and have the potential to give them even more if they finish their careers in Pittsburgh. The idea that both have six to seven more seasons is huge because that means by the time they are 35/36 they will have played about 16 seasons of hockey for the same team.
The Wild have never had that kind of player. Marian Gaborik could have been, but he was let go in a free-agent struggle. Since then the Wild have bet the franchise on the signings of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, both who were 28 when they signed. That means the Wild will only have their core for about seven seasons before they age out. Comparing that to the Crosby and Malkin example of 16 seasons, you can see where the advantage of time and just having those players in their younger years makes a lot of sense.
So how do the Wild get a few players to form a core while they are in their younger years? You might be tempted to quickly say they need to draft better. I would agree with that, but I think it goes a lot deeper than that. Sure the Wild have squandered some high draft picks on deadline trades, and had a few busts over the years. But have those players that have been busts been all that great to singlehandedly change the landscape of the team like Crosby or Malkin?
Michael Russo explained it well on his podcast with Jim Souhan by talking about how the Wild have lacked the big lottery type pick. He continues that they really haven’t had a chance to draft a player like Crosby or Malkin because they haven’t ever completely tanked a season to get that overall number one or two pick.
That’s a great point. The Wild have almost been put at a disadvantage by never being truly horrible over their 16 franchise seasons. Over the years the Wild have only picked in the top ten seven times, and they have only picked in the top three once at number three before their inaugural season picking Gaborik.
So looking at the core players for the Pens Crosby was number one overall, and Malkin was second overall. Another team just to increase the sample size the Chicago Blackhawks have Toews who was third overall and Kane who was first overall. What’s the point here, these perennial cup contenders have a core of high draft picks that have been with the team for many many years.
The Wild have never had chance to build these players because they’ve never had the chance to draft inside the top three since Gaborik. Sure older core players like Parise and Suter could yield great results, but the problem is you can’t mold them as much and health becomes an issue faster.
Is there anything the Wild can do to get around this high draft pick issue without tanking a season? Yes, but it really leaves only two costly options.
First, is a trade once the lottery is complete, and you know exactly who is in those top spots. The issue with this course of action is that the cost could be VERY high, so if the Wild do trade they need to be prepared to pay a price. It could almost cost more than the pick is worth. But take this last draft and if Toronto was willing to their number one pick, the Wild would have gotten Auston Mathews who was dubbed and already is a game changer. Basically if you see a player like that it’s almost a sure thing, and the steep price to acquire that pick to get them might be worth it because of the risk being almost zero that they’ll bust.
Second, is to try and get the young player after their first contract is up as an RFA and they are still relatively young. The issue with that is that the way the CBA is written the compensation to sign an RFA makes the price too steep for just about every team.
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This offseason really proves my point as Johnny Gaudreau just only recently signed with the Flames. He’s a young franchise changing player that any team would have been more than happy to have, but not a single franchise submitted an offer sheet for him. Sure if the Wild had the cap room they could have put an offer sheet in for Gaudreau, but there’s an all-in aspect to that as the draft pick compensation would almost hamstring the franchise for years.
My thought is the Wild will continue to hover outside the draft lottery, and therefore will never have a big chance to draft a franchise changing generational player. The fans in Minnesota will never abide the losing season it takes to get that pick. So the Wild are really left with the trial and error method of drafting and prospect trading just hoping that one of those players blossoms into a Crosby or Malkin.
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But when you think about it, did anyone hope those two would blossom into great players? No the knew they would. The Wild have never really had that player…maybe Gaborik, but I’ve already taken up too much of your time.