Despite a slight regression in terms of stats, Dubnyk is part of the solution in Minnesota and could benefit from stronger play in front of him next season.
Disclaimer, Devan Dubnyk was the savior of the Minnesota Wild in 2014-15. Expecting him to put up the same ridiculous numbers after he was acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes was unrealistic. 27 wins and a 1.78 GAA are gaudy numbers that very few in the history of the league have managed over the course of an entire season.
For context, there are 92 goalies who have posted a GAA under 2 for an entire season. Of those players, Dubnyk’s numbers expanded over the course of an entire season would place him at number 37 on the list of best seasons by a netminder in terms of Goals Against Average.
Given that we are talking about a goalie who had been unable to establish himself as a viable starting goaltender prior to last year’s trade to the Wild, what Dubnyk achieved this past season should not be viewed as a disappointment. A 2.33 GAA and .918 save percentage are both more than passable numbers. Especially given the slight regression of the team around him from last year to 2015-16.
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There is also the fact that Dubnyk was the lone representative for the team at the All Star Game this year. That says something about the respect the Wild goalie has from his peers around the league. An All Star appearance is never something to take lightly, especially at the position that is most important to team success.
Part of helping out their All Star goalie will require playing him less next season. The past two years Dubnyk has started the vast majority of the team’s games. He started 39 after he was acquired in January of 2015 and this past season started 67 of the team’s 82 games (81.7% of the team’s games). When taken into account that Dubnyk will be 30 at the start of next season and is under contract for the next five seasons, the Wild would do well to reduce his workload with an eye on keeping Dubnyk productive and healthy for the duration of his contract. Whether this means Darcy Kuemper or recently acquired goalie Adam Vay starts in his place is something the team must decide this offseason.
Secondly, the team needs to step up their play in front of Dubnyk. In 2014-15 the Wild finished tied for 4th in terms of goals allowed. This past season, they slipped to 9th, with largely the same supporting cast. Defesively, the main area of concern is the penalty kill, which saw the team fall from first in the league to 27th. Clearly the team needs to change something on its penalty kill, but this statistic in particular highlights the importance of Kyle Brodziak to the team’s penalty kill as he was the only loss to the league leading unit.
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Finally, the team must step up its offense to lessen the burden on the netminder. Too often last season it felt like the Wild was pinned in its own zone for most of the game. Their shots against per game backs up this theory, as they allowed 28.6 shots against. That was good enough for 8th in the league, but still down from their 4th place finish in this category the year before. In terms of shots for per game, the team left room for improvement, as they finished 23rd in the league in that respect.
Put simply, Dubnyk needs more out of the team in front of him in order to have the type of year he did in 2014-15. A goaltender can rise and fall with the performance of their team. Dubnyk will need a better performance from his team, and this group is capable of stepping up their game…the time to do it is now.