Minnesota Wild: Weekly Roundtable, Who is the Breakout Star?
The Minnesota Wild are entering training camp, trying to prepare the best roster possible for the coming season. In order to do that, some young players will need to step their game to the next level. Who are the most likely candidates?
Each of us here at Gone Puck Wild have different expectations and different methods for deeming a player’s potential to produce and break-out. The Minnesota Wild are expecting at least one player to breakout this season, and we’re here to give our opinions of who it will be.
Last season saw a couple surprising breakouts among Wild players. We saw Eric Staal‘s resurgent career take it to a new level, we saw Jason Zucker blast through his career bests, and we saw Jordan Greenway show up in a big way to end the year.
A breakout player could be anything from a shutdown defenseman emerging, to a veteran far exceeding their career bests in scoring, or it could be a rookie emerging on the scene and battling for his place on the roster.
We’ve each taken one player that we truly believe will have a breakout year, based on past production, potential, and their position in the predicted depth chart. We decided that Greenway is the obvious choice, given he broke out last spring, and for that made him exempt from our choices.
Sullivan Casey: Nick Seeler
For the majority of last season, the Minnesota Wild were without a true physical presence on the back end. Matt Dumba did his best, but he’s just too offensive minded to be a true tough guy in front of the net. Before last season, Marco Scandella filled the role pretty well, but even he seemed to lack that last bit of grit that this type of defenseman needs.
On the 13th of February last year, Nick Seeler made his NHL debut. The 6-2, 200lb defensemen isn’t the most physically imposing skater on the ice, but he is possibly the grittiest I’ve seen put on a Wild jersey in a while.
The fight he had against Luke Witkowski of the Red Wings? Nasty. We don’t see bouts like that too often anymore. It’s that special kind of mean that I saw in Seeler last season, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t continue it into this season.
However, I expect more from him than just grinding in the corners and chucking fists when necessary. For a rookie grinder, he showed great promise as a playmaker, notching seven assists in under thirty games and tallying a pair of playoff points.
He recorded an average of 14:32 minutes of average time on ice and racked up a +10 +/- in his stint with the Wild, very solid figures for a guy in his first quarter-season. Look for that number to get up to nearly 20 minutes this season, as he grows more and more confident with the puck on his stick.
Defensively, he showed promise as well. Of course, he made mistakes, some of which led to goals against. That happens to any rookie defenseman. But in other instances, his gap control and body position was remarkable for someone so fresh to the NHL.
I think as he develops this year, we could see him slide into a top-four role. If one of Ryan Suter, Matt Dumba, Jonas Brodin, or Jared Spurgeon go down with an injury, he would be my first choice as a replacement.
However, I could even see him cracking the top-four without injuries. I think that the combinations of Suter-Dumba and Spurgeon-Seeler would provide a very dynamic back four that is balanced and solid in all parts of the rink. For me, Brodin is sometimes too easy to play against, while Seeler offers a totally different style of play.
Nick Seeler is my pick to be the Minnesota Wild’s Breakout Player of the Year. I think he offers physicality that the Wild’s defense desperately needs, and the other parts of his game will continue to evolve to the point where by the end of this season, he is an excellent all-around defenseman.
Ryan Darnley: Joel Eriksson Ek
Joel Eriksson Ek made the Minnesota Wild roster last year; however, his rookie campaign didn’t quite meet some of the expectations people had.
For him, I’m not expecting the dreaded ‘sophomore slump’, in fact I’m going to term what I expect as the ‘sophomore swing’. I fully expect an upswing in all areas of Joel’s game, provided the Minnesota Wild give him the chances to shine.
Last season, he wasn’t exactly sheltered with an even split of offensive zone starts (50.1%) to defensive zone starts (49.1%). Call it trial by fire or simply that the team trusted he wouldn’t be burdened by responsibility straight away. That, in itself, says a lot – if the coaching staff were willing to trust the player there’s obviously something there.
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So, the team clearly trusts the player. What does he need to do to breakout? Simply put, shoot more accurately.
His shooting percentage across his first full NHL term was a measly 4.5%; given this player produced at a point per game rate in his 8 game stint with the Iowa Wild last year, you’ve got to think there is more to him. If that shooting percentage can climb even 3-4% bringing it more on par with even the lesser performers in the NHL, suddenly he’s in double-figures for goals and could probably push for a 30-plus point campaign.
Nearly a fifth of his time on the ice was spent partnered with Daniel Winnik and Marcus Foligno. Swap one of them out for Jordan Greenway maybe and suddenly it’s a different look. Greenway can crash the net and if he’s improved his utilization of his size, bully the opponent a little opening up better shooting lanes. Suddenly, that shooting percentage increase isn’t so crazy.
His possession metrics weren’t anywhere near fantastic, below the elusive 50% Corsi. His 44.4% doesn’t reflect the skill he actually does have, but again I think is a reflection of his most common line-mates and himself not necessarily finding chemistry as a unit.
All in all, Eriksson Ek didn’t do much wrong last year. He just didn’t produce at the level that many assumed he would. This year, it’s a fresh start and I think as long as he’s been working hard in the summer, we’ll be seeing a player with a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove.
I’m calling it; Joel Eriksson Ek will be the Minnesota Wild break-out star for the season. The ‘sophomore swing’ is a happening thing!
Statistics courtesy of Hockey Reference, Elite Prospects and Dobber Sports.
Cody Defoe: Luke Kunin
Luke Kunin has the most difficult battle to face in order to earn his spot as Breakout Player for the Minnesota Wild this year. He is recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL, he has been shutdown by doctors and coaches for the entirety of Training Camp and Preseason, and won’t be allowed to start skating until into October.
Kunin will most likely need to start this season in Iowa, and battle his way back into a roster spot in order to have a breakout of any kind. Obviously, I think that will be a highly likely possibility.
In 48 previous AHL games in Iowa, Kunin has produced at an outstanding clip. He has 27 points, while shooting at a fantastic 13%. For comparison, his NHL shooting percentage last season was a measly 6.3%.
Kunin showed a ton of promise in his limited stint with the Minnesota Wild last season, while playing mostly on the third and fourth lines he managed to still put up 4 points over 19 games. He also took a fighting major, after injecting himself into a fight after Mathew Dumba had already dropped his gloves.
The kid has spunk and a ton of team spirit, he’s not afraid to take a few shots to the face if it means getting the crowd behind him. He’s a talented player with a knack for scoring goals, but the grit to play in his own zone as well.
I don’t tend to dabble much in terms of Corsi percentages, but in this case there is something to be said in Kunin’s benefit. In his 19 NHL games last year Luke finished with a 48.5 Corsi For, an extremely solid number for a bottom 6 rookie who is used to playing in a Top 6 role at every other level of his career.
Take that into consideration with the fact that Kunin was not protected at all by coach Boudreau, he started 52% of his shifts in the defensive zone, and those numbers look extremely impressive.
If Kunin can work his way back to the NHL once his knee is fully recovered from surgery, he stands a very good chance of finding his way onto the third line combination which should finally develop from a second checking line into a line more apt at scoring.
He was a point per game player in both years of college, he has averaged more than a point per 2 games over his time in the AHL, and has shown flashes that if given an opportunity in the NHL he could breakout.
I think this is the year he does it. Injuries, and likely some trades, are inevitable given the depth of talent this team currently has in its possession.
Luke Kunin is my pick for this season’s Breakout Player. He will get a chance to regain his spot in the lineup before the season is done, and he will not let it go again. His scoring ability, matched with his grit and passion will be something the team can benefit from, and I think Coach Boudreau loves a player like Kunin.
Next. Organizing the Wild's Top 6. dark
Do you agree with our choices? Is there someone you think should have been selected as potential 2018-19 Minnesota Wild breakout star? Leave your thoughts in the comments, we love to hear feedback from other Wild fans!