Last season for the Minnesota Wild, Matt Dumba truly stepped up. The 2012 first round draft pick (7th overall) had a break-out fifty point year. Is it time to move him into the ‘elite’ conversation?
First off, just on the Minnesota Wild roster, you have at least one player that could be counted in the ‘elite’ bracket; that being Ryan Suter.
Suter has routinely put away forty to fifty points across multiple NHL seasons, all whilst having a positive defensive influence, if you look solely at plus/minus.
Dumba doesn’t necessarily have that same track record of multiple forty to fifty point years, but rather represents a more gradual curve to where he’s at today, as adjudged in his season preview. He too is rarely on the negative side of plus/minus across a season.
However, when we talk truly elite defensemen in the NHL, we’re thinking Norris Trophy winners. So, let’s compare these simple stat lines to the likes of San Jose defensemen Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson (still odd saying that!).
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In Karlsson, you’re looking at sixty to seventy points a year; truly elite numbers. Does that mean we discredit Suter’s regular totals? Of course not.
Burns, in the past four years, much to the chagrin of Minnesota Wild fans I’m sure, is also a sixty to seventy point guy.
The interesting thing here though is that both guys bounce between positive plus/minus and negative plus/minus years.
Now it’s obviously the most basic of statistics and talks for the whole team out on the ice; doesn’t talk to penalty killing or anything of the like.
But based on that one stat-line, you could very easily argue that in terms of being a defenseman, both Dumba and Suter are a higher level than people give credit.
Where both Minnesota Wild men get out-shined by Norris Trophy candidates is the absolute top-tier of points production. The tier that comes with inherent risks, as seen in both the San Jose examples.
If you look at the most recent winner of the Norris, Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning; he’s actually followed a similar curve over recent years as Dumba.
A few middling seasons, a break-out year and then with the amazing supporting cast he has in Florida; he’s managed a 63 point year with next-level defensive prowess at +32 for the season.
So, do I conclusively see Matt Dumba as an elite defenseman? Probably not.
Do I see him as just a tier below that level? Absolutely.
Can he continue to show the improvement in his game to reach the next echelon; I want to say yes. You have to expect Boudreau to give Suter a little easier and less ice-time given his injuries, which he is gradually shaking off.
This is the year where Dumba can really step up for the Minnesota Wild as a result.