LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 29: Devan Dubnyk #40 of the Minnesota Wild celebrates with teammates after defeating the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena on March 29, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Wild won 3-2. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty Images)
Welcome back to the third iteration of who the Minnesota Wild should sign this offseason! I’ll be diving into the three players who broke into the top ten the Wild should target over the summer. If you have missed any part or need a reminder on the process/who have already been listed, check out the intro, part one, and/or part two.
Before I begin detailing who the Minnesota Wild should pursue in the coming weeks, there is some news to cover on trades and extensions in the NHL.
First, the New York Islanders resigned Brock Nelson to a 6-year/$36,000,000 contract with a $2,000,000 signing bonus and Jordan Eberle to a 5-year/$27,500,000 contract. The belief is that the Islanders now look to resign captain Anders Lee, but there is some dispute about contract length. Lee’s camp is wanting somewhere along the 7-year mark, whereas Team President Lou Lamoriello would be more comfortable with 4. This has been a point of contention since contract conversations started at the beginning of the season, which could open up the road for the Edina, Minnesota native to return to the State of Hockey. Initially, the belief was that the Islanders would be willing to depart with either Nelson or Eberle to retain Lee, but Lamoriello has managed to sign team friendly contracts and could retain all 3. Lamoriello still has to address Robin Lehner. If they believe Thomas Greiss can take over the role and let Lehner walk to save money, they could still potentially come to terms, but I believe the Isles will let Lee walk as they have been trying to rework the contract since the beginning of the season.
Second, the Wild acquired Fedor Gordeev from the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 7th round draft pick in 2020. Drafted in the 5th round two years ago, Toronto Maple Leafs never signed him to his Entry Level Contract, and with their cap situation currently, elected to avoid any extra burden by allowing the Wild to take Fedor off their hands. Ryan Boonstra scouts Fedor Gordeev here. I believe this move points to the departures of either one of or both of Brad Hunt and Anthony Bitetto. The Wild are fairly deep at the defensive position, with the likes of Louie Belpedio, Carson Soucy, and Nick Seeler all vying for that 6th defensive spot and could put Fedor in the AHL or a different minor league affiliate to develop his skills. But this is the real reason why I mention the trade:
Third, the Philadelphia Flyers traded a 5th round pick in the upcoming draft to Winnipeg for pending free agent Kevin Hayes and promptly signed him to a 7-year/$50,000,000 contract. Now that Brock Nelson is locked in for the Islanders and Kevin Hayes is a Broad Street Bully, the only high-caliber centers available are Joe Pavelski and Matt Duchene.
Jacob Trouba was traded to the Rangers for Neal Pionk and the 1st round pick the Jets gave the Rangers for Kevin Hayes. How easy is the Rangers first round by the way? Just take whoever New Jersey doesn’t between Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko. Rangers have made some impressive moves recently to accelerate their rebuild process, and frankly, I could see them making the postseason. The Winnipeg Jets have been moving in the wrong direction. In a world that the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t exist (which is hard to imagine, but bear with me), the Winnipeg Jets would be the talk of the league, in terms of “Cap-Hell”. They have to address Brandon Tanev, Patrick Laine, Kyle Connor, newly acquired Neal Pionk, Tyler Myers, Ben Chiarot, Joe Morrow, and Nathan Beaulieu just to start. Laine will eat a lot of Winnipeg’s available cap space, despite a lackluster year. It’s unlikely that they’ll retain Myers or Tanev and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is probably looking to change things after a disappointing year, one year removed from a Western Conference Final run.
Erik Karlsson got huge money, 8-years/$92,000,000. Might affect the asking price for an extension to Jared Spurgeon as they are both extremely proficient skating defenseman. He is one of the priorities for GM Paul Fenton this season.
Mitch Marner is still wanting $11 Million per year. He’s an elite player and is definitely worth a lot of money. I’m unsure if the Leafs can meet that ask, but a team that could meet that number would also have to forfeit their first round picks for the next four years. I love watching Marner and Matthews on the same team and the bromance that has been born in Toronto, but if a team does extend an offer sheet to Mitch Marner, Kyle Dubas should seriously consider letting him walk and allow another team to stock the cupboard with inexpensive youth for the Leafs to plug in with Matthews and Tavares. Also, Leafs. Trade Kadri. Yeah, he’s pretty good. He also has removed himself from the entire playoff series’ in back to back years in the second game. It’s not a stretch to say he cost his team each series. Every team needs a player that has some nasty, but the Leafs have been burned by Kadri’s actions one too many times. I absolutely believe that if Kadri doesn’t commit that hit and get suspended, the Leafs make the Stanley Cup Final. They received another incredibly tough draw for a first-round matchup (which is why the playoff format needs to be changed to something more akin to what the NBA does, Bruins and Leafs should not have to play each other in the first round as the 2nd and 5th best team in the Conference), and the Leafs clearly need to bolster defense. If they allow Marner to walk and/or move Kadri, they create space for an immediate replacement and have the draft picks to have a long term replacement.
Patrick Marleau, a conditional 1st round pick in 2020, and a 7th round 2020 pick were shipped out to Carolina for a 2020 6th round pick. It is expected that the Hurricanes will buy out his contract.
Finally, P.K. Subban was traded to New Jersey for Steve Santini (who?), Jeremy Davies (WHO?), 2019 2nd round pick, and a 2020 2nd round pick. This was a great move for both teams. New Jersey had about $35 Million available before the move and now are sitting at $26M to spend the rest of the summer. Adding Subban, Jack Hughes, and not giving up Miles Wood and Kyle Palmieri in the Subban trade is huge. They can add additional pieces that convince Taylor Hall to stay and can become a force of nature in the East.
Enough news updates on what’s happening around the league. Let’s dive into some free agent analysis.
WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 20: Brett Connolly #10 of the Washington Capitals celebrates after scoring a goal in the second period against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game Five of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Capital One Arena on April 20, 2019, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/NHLI via Getty Images) /
In 2010, with the 6th overall pick, the Tampa Bay Lightning selected, Brett Connolly from Campbell River, British Columbia, with the expectation that he would join the likes of Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman in returning the Lightning to Stanley Cup greatness. Over 4 years with the organization, he would only play 134 games in a Tampa Bay sweater, spending most of his time with the Syracuse Crunch (Tampa Bay’s AHL affiliate team) where he would play 137 games. In the AHL, he was electric, earning a 63 point season (31G, 32A) and a 57 point season (21G, 36A), but it seemed that he was only lightning in a bottle in Syracuse. The scoring and play-making never transitioned to the NHL, where he only tallied 32 points (18G, 14A) in his 134 games in his young career.
He was traded to the Boston Bruins for two second-round picks and the lack of production followed him, where he would tally 27 points in 76 games.
The Capitals would sign him to a 1-yr/$850,000 contract, prior to the 2016-2017 season, and sparked a bit of balance and production in his game. In 66 games, he would produce 15 goals and 8 assists and earn himself a new contract for 2-yr/$3,000,000. He’d then produce back to back career high point seasons with 27 (15, 12) in 2017 and 46 in 2018 (22, 24), impressive while playing behind guys like Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.
The two biggest questions in Brett Connolly’s game is his ability to continue producing at a 2nd/3rd line rate and can he stay on the ice. Until last season, he’s never finished a season with more than 70 games, whether it be an injury, a healthy scratch, or spending time in the minors, he just couldn’t stay in the lineup. After the success of this past season, he’s looking for top-6 money, which the Capitals may not be able to afford. The 6th highest contract for the Caps is a tie for T.J. Oshie and Matt Niskanen at an AAV of $5,750,000, so Connolly is expecting a similar or greater level of compensation.
Brett Connolly comes in at number nine because of the goals he scored last season(22), his age (27), the number of games he played (81), and the fact that he’s right-handed. He isn’t a constant scoring threat on the ice, but more of someone who can help generate opportunities for others but isn’t foreign to the concept of burying the puck. Not exactly what the Wild need, but could be someone who helps generate opportunities for Parise, (if he’s still with the team) Zucker, Donato, Fiala, and/or Kunin. Is he worth $5,000,000? Well…
If I were Paul Fenton, I would let Brett Connolly sit in free agency for a bit, and see if he’s willing to take a cheaper deal, like 4-years/$16,000,000. Otherwise, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to pass on him.
BOSTON, MA – APRIL 25: Columbus Blue Jackets left wing Ryan Dzingel (19)] waits for a face off during Game 1 of the Second Round 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Boston Bruins and the Columbus Blue Jackets on April 25, 2019, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
Ryan Dzingel is a curious case. Drafted in 2011 by the Ottawa Senators, the 27-year old played three seasons at (THE) Ohio State University before signing his Entry Level Contract and reporting to the Binghamton Senators (AHL affiliate) in 2014. He would make his NHL debut in December of 2015 and score his first goal two months later. His first full season with the Sens he would contribute 14 goals and 18 assists in 81 games and sign an extension for 2-years/$3.6M to avoid arbitration. Two years later he would be traded on deadline day with a 2019 7th round pick to Columbus for Anthony Duclair and 2nd round picks in 2020 and 2021.
Looking at his stat line, it’s an attractive pickup. In 2017, he had 23 goals and 18 assists in 79 games. Last season, in 78 games he had 26 goals and 30 assists. However, prior to being traded, he had 22 goals and 22 assists in 57 games. In 21 games with the Blue Jackets, he had 4 goals and 8 assists. There’s one stat that is unnerving. His plus/minus in 2017 was -17 and in 2018 was -9. That could be chalked up to one simple thing. He was playing in Ottawa where the defense and goaltender leave a lot to desire.
On a team where defense and goaltenders both exist and are productive, Dzingel would be +10 to +20 range. He has good size, good scoring ability, Fenton seems to love to stockpile centers, and with the pool of available scoring forwards shrinking, Dzingel could be a good depth pickup for the Wild to improve ability. A contract for Ryan Dzingel would likely be 4-years and somewhere between $8M to $10M for an AAV of about $2M to $2.5M.
UNIONDALE, NY – MARCH 30: Anders Lee #27 of the New York Islanders skates against the Buffalo Sabres at NYCB Live’s Nassau Coliseum on March 30, 2019 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images) /
When John Tavares decided to leave the Island to form the Maple Leaf juggernaut, the franchise elected to hand the captain’s C to the 28-year-old from Edina, Minnesota, Anders Lee. Drafted in 2009 out of the Green Bay Gamblers USHL team, the 19-year-old decided to develop through college at Notre Dame before joining the Islanders at the tail end of the 2012-2013 season. The following season, he would bounce between the NHL and the AHL, producing 9 goals and 5 assists in 22 games for the Islanders, and 22 goals and 19 assists in 54 games for the Bridgeport Sound Tigers. He began the 14-15 season in Bridgeport, only playing 5 games (where he had 3 goals and 2 assists) before being called up to New York to join the Islanders for a more permanent tenure.
Since then, Anders Lee has always been in a New York Islanders sweater. He would establish career highs in games played each season, with back to back seasons of 82 games played starting in 2017. In the past three seasons, Lee has had 50+ point seasons, with at least 28 goals scored each year and at least 18 assists. He’s the first free agent on this list that could be classified as a pure goal scorer. Since 2009-2010, Anders Lee has had more goals than assists in every season, except for two: 2011-2012 with Notre Dame (17 G, 17A) and 2015-2016 with New York (15G, 21A). Since he has been playing complete seasons with the Islanders, he’s averaging 28.4 goals a year, with a 40 goal season in 2017-2018 and a 34 goal season in 2016-2017.
If Anders Lee makes it to the beginning of Unrestricted Free Agency on July 1st without a new contract with the Islanders and he decides to return to the Twin Cities, there could be a crowding issue with roster space. He would be joining Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, Joel Eriksson Ek, Luke Kunin, potentially Jordan Greenway, Victor Rask, and Nico Sturm contending for center spots. To sign him, the Wild could try to move Ek or Rask, along with Zucker, who they are actively shopping, to create roster room. I believe Paul Fenton would be willing to give Anders Lee the contract length he has been seeking from the Islanders. My guess is the offer would be as small as $40M/7yrs ($5.71M AAV) or as large as $49M/7yrs ($7M AAV), which might be overpaying a bit, but the Wild would be willing to do, especially if they feel the pool of available prolific scorers are shallow. They could potentially sign a shorter deal at a greater AAV to maximize the prime aged years of Anders Lee’s career.
That concludes the 3rd rendition of who the Minnesota Wild should sign during the offseason. The
draft just concluded and the Wild took three left wingers, two centers, two goalies, and one defenseman throughout the draft. Curiously, all of the skaters are left-hand shots. Paul Fenton’s reasoning? Take the best player available. Another storyline going into the draft was speculation that Zucker would be moved, but day one and day two passed without any Minnesota Wild players being traded. When asked about the Jason Zucker situation, Paul Fenton said:
“He’s a part of our team, I don’t plan on getting rid of Jason unless the right thing (comes) to me. That’s how it should be stated. I listen to offers and I make offers just like everybody else does, it doesn’t mean that he’s pigeon-holed into something. I love Jason as a player and he’ll be a great fit for us when he comes back.
So, perhaps the last article I wrote was a bit overly critical of Paul Fenton and perhaps a little over-dramatic. Michael Russo reported the best offer the Wild were approached with a high draft pick and a prospect or mid-range NHL Regular. Good No Call by the Wild.
Also, if you think Anders Lee, Ryan Dzingel, or Brett Connolly are poorly ranked, let me know. The last two parts of this series will get rolled out very soon with how close we are to the beginning of the free agent signing period. It will certainly be an entertaining time.
![BOSTON, MA – APRIL 25: Columbus Blue Jackets left wing Ryan Dzingel (19)] waits for a face off during Game 1 of the Second Round 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Boston Bruins and the Columbus Blue Jackets on April 25, 2019, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/33862e9fa04b8d6b772329b06af70d5a889606bba545b195d3f77517bc4bbfc4.jpg)
