What Bill Guerin’s Quiet Deadline Means for the Future of the Wild Roster

What’s the saying? It’s always calmest before the storm?

Despite the rumor that the Wild might make a blockbuster trade with the New York Islanders, it was a relatively calm day for Minnesota. There were rumors that Eric Staal could be on the move to the Philadelphia Flyers and Chuck Fletcher, who signed Eric Staal while he managed the Wild. There were also rumblings of teams calling on Greg Pateryn. Alex Galchenyuk could have been flipped. Matt Dumba and Jonas Brodin drew interest, but the price -for now- was too high for any other GM to meet.

What does that mean for Minnesota’s future? I think the Wild are going to have a very active draft day and offseason. We somewhat knew that it was going to be difficult for Minnesota to try to move any of the big contracts at the deadline- it’s just not the type of deal that gets done at the Deadline, which for Minnesota is a very good thing. Here are players that could depart from the Wild in the offseason

Jonas Brodin/Matt Dumba

The grim reality of our second pairing defensive pairing is that their great performance is going to directly cause their departure from the team.

Last season, Matt Dumba took the league by storm with his explosive shots and bone-crushing hits but has regressed this season after his ruptured pectoral.

Dumba looks like the same player though, aggressive, offensive-minded, attacking. He’s skilled, skates well, and can open up the ice for his teammates. His game demands attention. Perhaps the book is just out on his ability.

Jonas Brodin doesn’t put up significant numbers, doesn’t get in the box score too much, but my goodness he plays phenomenal defense and he’s a statistical sweetheart.

When Brodin is on the ice, the Wild have scored fifty-four goals (Brodin only has scored twice this season and has nineteen assists) and opponents have only scored forty-four goals. In comparison, Dumba has been on the ice for the same number of goals for the Wild, but opponents have scored thirteen more goals when Dumba’s on the ice than Brodin- and Brodin has more ice time this season.

A significant part of what makes Brodin great isn’t even seen on the stat sheet- his skating ability is spectacular. It’s what makes his defense so good. He’s always in the right spot at the right time and is a workhorse for this squad- regularly working on the penalty kill, overtimes, and crunch time late in games.

The reason for Dumba or Brodin’s departure: The Seattle Expansion Draft… kinda

Under the Expansion draft rules, teams can protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie OR eight skaters and a goalie, and it’s almost certain that Minnesota would go the first route. Teams are required to protect players that have No Move Clauses, so that would mean Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Zach Parise (if he were still with the team, will address later), and Mats Zuccarello. It means one of Brodin, Dumba, Carson Soucy (RFA this year, will get resigned), Brad Hunt, or Greg Pateryn will have to be exposed for the new Seattle Team to potentially take.

Matt Dumba is scheduled to earn an AAV of $6,000,000 for the next three years and Jonas Brodin has one more year of $4,166,166. If the Wild want to keep Brodin, they’ll likely extend him in the offseason.

It’s very unlikely that the Wild make another trade with an expansion draft team to protect a player like with Vegas, so it’s quite likely the Wild trade Matt Dumba or Jonas Brodin to ensure they get value for their departure. I’m certain every team would be moderately interested in either of these defensemen, it’s a question of price.

This season, Bill Guerin was fairly public on the price he would want for either individual, top two line center and a 1st round draft pick/very good prospect. Florida and Carolina were two teams interested in Brodin at the deadline, but neither pulled the trigger. In the offseason, the entire league will have the opportunity to make their pitches, rather than just playoff contending teams. I imagine that the price will remain around that value unless a unique deal arose- like maybe an elite center disenchanted by the trajectory of their current franchise…

Teams (likely) Seriously Interested: BUF, CAR, CBJ, CGY, FLA, NYR, TOR, WPG

Eric Staal

Eric Staal was almost traded at the deadline last season. Instead, Paul Fenton held on to him and extended him for an additional two years. While I enjoy BEST OF THE YEAR Eric Staal, I don’t believe it was the right move. The reported deals were very friendly for Minnesota and Staal’s play has declined significantly since last season’s trade deadline. His skating has slowed, the strides are less powerful, and it feels like he’s becoming more and more a passenger on the ice.

This squad is in dire need of quality centers, and while Eric Staal was that when he first joined Minnesota, he just isn’t anymore. He could be apart of a package that brings in another center. Unsure of the interest levels in Staal right now. It was reported that he could be reunited with Chuck Fletcher and the Flyers at the deadline. Maybe Fletcher circles back with Guerin in the offseason.

I wouldn’t be against keeping Staal, he just can’t be our top-line center anymore.

Teams Potentially Interested: PHI

Devan Dubnyk

Devan Dubnyk has been an absolute horse for the Minnesota Wild. Since joining the Wild in 2015, Dubnyk has averaged 63.8 games played in a season and was regularly in the top five games played in a season for goalies. He was usually always a highlight and keystone for the Wild’s success in a season.

Starting last year, it was noticed that his performance had declined a bit, but most just chalked it up to a weaker squad last year. This season, while dealing with off-ice concerns in his family, his performance didn’t return to his typical standard.

Dubnyk’s first start since February 23rd displayed some rust in his game despite the win. It appears Alex Stalock has stolen the net with his incredibly impressive play recently. Kaapo Kahkonen, Hunter Jones, and even Mat Robson look like they could be the goalie of the future. Perhaps the Minnesota Wild attempt to sign Robin Lehner in the offseason?

Teams Potentially Interested: WSH or NYI- Wild would likely have to retain on Salary. Buyout?

Greg Pateryn/Brad Hunt

Greg Pateryn and Brad Hunt could both be feasible departures in the offseason. They are still under contract for the 2020-2021 season, but with the emergence of Carson Soucy, the defensive group has become crowded.

The bottom pair does allow for an opportunity to create cap space and a roster spot with the soon-to-be expiring contracts. Greg Pateryn’s cap hit will be $2.25M next season whereas Brad Hunt’s cap hit will be a simple $700k.

I personally like Brad Hunt and Carson Soucy as a pairing more than Hunt and Pateryn or Soucy/Pateryn, so I would look to move Pateryn, but either could be an option. Moving either of the bottom pairing dmen would allow for Belpedio or Menell to get a promotion to the Pro Roster and open up a spot for our prospects in Iowa like Calen Addison or Fedor Gordeev.

Teams Potentially Interested: TOR, EDM, MTL(?), CBJ, WPG

Zach Parise

On deadline day, we almost witnessed the end of the Parise Era in Minnesota. It was reported that Parise and Andrew Ladd from the New York Islanders had both waived their No Move Clauses; it was just down to the General Managers hammering out a deal.

We waited…

…and waited…

…and waited…

Until, for some reason or another, there was no more noise about the Wild and Islanders making a trade.

The deadline had come and passed and neither team had a deal waiting in the League Office Queue.

So Zach Parise stayed a member of the Minnesota Wild and Andrew Ladd was still apart of the Islanders organization.

Now, based on the Jason Zucker trade, I imagine that GM Bill Guerin was going to get more back for Parise than just Andrew Ladd, but no reports have surfaced on what that might have been.

While Paul Fenton was at the helm, Parise was offered to the New York Islanders in the offseason, but no deal was had.

This season, Bill Guerin looked to be close to completing a deal, again with the Islanders, but this time there were complications on the money side fo the deal- likely how much Salary Retention would there be.

Without the pressure of a hard deadline, might the Wild and the Islanders look to reengage talks in the offseason?

Who knows, but it’s certainly a possibility. There’s a lot of personal history tied up with these two franchises. Zach Parise’s father played for the Islanders during his career. Bill Guerin played for Lou Lamoriello with the New Jersey Devils, winning a pair of Stanley Cups. Zach Parise was drafted by Lou Lamoriello- also with the Devils Organization.

I still can’t imagine that the Wild were only getting Andrew Ladd, so what else was a part of the deal? Draft Picks and/or Prospects? Someone else apart of the Islander roster? I’m not certain on any of it, which is fairly typical for a trade involving a Lamoriello team- he is notoriously stingy on details with the media (not necessarily a bad thing, just looking to protect his organization.)

Offer Sheet?

There’s another potential wrinkle with a trade this offseason. The New York Islanders Center Mathew Barzal is a Restricted Free Agent and eligible to sign offer sheets. SportsNet’s Elliotte Friedman seems to believe there will be offer sheets coming in on the RFA, and with how frugal Lou Lamoriello is, teams may try to take advantage of the Islanders.

How do the Wild factor into this? Well, the Wild will have a projected Cap Space of $18M, without additional moves. So could the Wild be one of the teams that submit an Offer Sheet? Potentially, but there are several options.

Besides the typical offer sheet, they could try to trade for the negotiating rights with Mat Barzal- the Wild would almost certainly have to give up more than just Zach Parise, first-round pick(s), prospects, and/or players already on the roster, like a Ryan Donato, Jordan Greenway, etc.

They could also do a semi-combination of both. The Wild could be interested in signing Barzal to an offer sheet, but it is “leaked” (strategically) to the public, so that the Islanders may listen to offers on the RFA, either for an offer sheet or trade. Again, it may be a steep price, but Barzal is that kind of player

The likelihood of the options occurring? Tough to say. GM’s don’t like to offer sheet one another’s young players and put each other in tough spots because it makes lives difficult for one another- and there’s the (true) stereotype that there are 35 potential GM’s rotated amongst the 31 (soon to be 32) teams. The same is said about NHL coaches. Maybe the league is changing. There’s growing importance on the youth and skill of the new-aged players, perhaps this offseason we see teams begin to act on it.