The Minnesota Wild have found this offseason more difficult than expected. The Wild are still trying to swing a trade that will bring Dylan Larkin over from the Detroit Red Wings and their salary cap situation keeps getting worse with bargain options like Bobby Brink and Maxim Shabanov getting chosen over bringing back Mats Zuccarello and Vladimir Tarasenko.
Long story short? The Wild have enough issues to worry about and that was the case before Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson signed a five-year, $90 million offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers last weekend. Carlsson’s $18 million AAV will eclipse Kirill Kaprizov ($17 million) as the highest-paid player in the league. But it also increases the demand of top-line centers and make the Wild’s pursuit for one that much more difficult according to The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman.
“In the simplest of terms, the salary cap is rising, and there are few available needle-movers to invest in,” Goldman wrote. “While the best path to finding difference-making talent is through the draft, that involves a developmental process with its own curves, hurdles and [sometimes] a lengthy timeline. Free agency is no longer a reliable source of high-end talent either. Few stars make it to July 1, which has led to major overpayments of the middle class in recent years.
“The trade route is the next-best bet for adding top-caliber players. But even that has its own challenges like astronomical asks and returns. Offer sheets can help change that for up-and-coming talent, even if it’s just the threat of one.”
Wild’s cost to acquire Dylan Larkin just skyrocketed after Leo Carlsson’s offer sheet
Goldman’s assessment of the market is what the Wild have run into this summer. While Larkin has requested a trade from the Red Wings, general manager Steve Yzerman has no obligation for him to fill it since he is under contract for the next five years. Larkin also is a bargain at an $8.7 million AAV over the life of the contract per Puckpedia, making Yzerman’s ask for a top-tier asset like Matt Boldy reasonable even if it sounds unfathomable to the Wild.
The Wild also contributed to the explosion in free agency, signing Michael McCarron to a six-year, $20 million contract before he was set to hit the market on July 1.
This was all before Carlsson signed his offer sheet, which gives the Ducks a big decision to make. The second overall pick in the 2023 draft, Carlsson has improved in each of his three seasons in the NHL, scoring 29 goals and recording 67 points last season. At 21 years old, Carlsson also has the upside to convince the Ducks to match the offer. But he also may not reach the $18 million value analytically, which could convince Anaheim to take the four first-round picks that would be sent from Philadelphia as compensation.
There are a lot of tentacles to this decision, but the biggest could be wrapped around the Wild’s pursuit of Larkin according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
“If Eiserman believes the right thing to do is start the year with Larkin based on what he’s getting offered, then he’ll do it,” Friedman said on his final 32 Thoughts podcast of the season. “But I think the offer sheet made Larkin even more valuable, not only in Yzerman’s eyes, but in other people’s eyes too.”
Carlsson may have the upside, but Larkin has an established track record. While he profiles as a No. 2 center on an elite team, he’s a No. 1 for the Wild as a six-time 30-goal scorer and one that has reached that mark in each of the past five seasons including a career-high 34 goals last year. Other teams may feel the same way and it gives Yzerman a path to increase his asking price after the Carlsson deal.
For a team whose offseason appears to be hinging on making a trade for Larkin, seeing a center go for $18 million or four first-rounders isn’t a great development. It could also be what sends the Wild’s offseason into a true panic if Yzerman either hangs on to Larkin or another team steps up and makes a better offer.
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