The Minnesota Wild have plenty of reasons to be optimistic right now. The Wild have started the season with a 12-3-4 record entering Tuesday’s game at the Montreal Canadiens. Their 28 points are the second most in the Western Conference behind the Edmonton Oilers (29) and they haven’t lost in regulation since a 2-1 loss to the Calgary Flames on Oct. 22.
For a team that has begun its season mostly on the road, this is a good omen for their chances at contending for a Stanley Cup. But several players have made it happen, including forward Maxim Shabanov.2
Shabanov has been tremendous after signing a one-year, $1.6 million contract last offseason. His eight goals rank second on the team behind Kirill Kaprizov’s 16. He is also tied for the team lead with five power-play goals and ranks fifth with 13 points.
For a team looking to replace a lot of its production in the top-six last summer, Shabanov has lived up to the hype. But there’s a question with his breakout as to whether he’s a source of offensive production or a player who can take advantage of the environment around him.
Wild need to find out if Maxim Shabanov can produce beyond the power play
Shabanov came to Minnesota as a mystery. The 26-year-old played well in the KHL before coming to America, scoring 23 goals and recording 67 points in 65 games with Traktor Chelyabinsk during the 2024-25 campaign. Wild general manager Bill Guerin told The Athletic’s Michael Russo that the Wild tried to sign Shabanov the following offseason, but he chose the New York Islanders and that decision amounted to a lost season.
While he recorded three points in his first six games, an upper-body injury stunted his momentum. His lack of consistency and defensive shortcomings put him into head coach Patrick Roy’s doghouse and the Islanders pushed him down the depth chart by acquiring Ondrej Palat and Brayden Schenn in separate trades.
Shabanov was vocally open to a trade himself as the deadline approached and in the end, he had just five goals and 18 points in 44 games. The disappointing campaign convinced the Islanders to non-tender him as a restricted free agent and the Wild have reaped the benefits so far from his creativity and ability to set up teammates for big plays.
But that leaves some hidden flaws in Shabanov’s production. In addition to five of his eight goals coming with the man advantage, nine of his 13 points have also come on the power play. Tony Abbott of Hockey Wilderness also noted that his defensive limitations haven’t gone away, as he’s allowing 2.58 expected goals per 60 minutes, trailing only Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno in that metric.
The future for Shabanov is also concerning. While he’s found chemistry with Danila Yurov on the third line, that may not last for long as Yurov, along with fellow linemate Yakov Trenin, could be involved in a blockbuster trade that brings Dylan Larkin to Minnesota.
At 5-foot-9 and 167 pounds, Shabanov also has a considerable size disadvantage on the ice. While that allows him to get outmuscled for loose pucks, it also could create an injury concern over the course of an 84-game schedule and creates several questions moving forward.
Wild must determine whether Maxim Shabanov’s breakout is sustainable
In the short term, the Wild can enjoy Shabanov’s production as a key component of their hot start. But they’ll need a bigger picture shortly. If Minnesota does trade for Larkin, Shabanov will be asked to do more and it could overexpose the weaknesses in his game to make him tail off from his current pace of 37 goals and 60 points.
The questions could get even bigger as Shabanov heads into the offseason. As a restricted free agent, the Wild will have the first opportunity to sign Shabanov to a new contract for the 2027-28 campaign. If he continues to play like this, Shabanov’s value currently represents an $8.4 million AAV, according to the model used by the analytics website BenchRates. But that number, along with the amount the Wild are willing to pay, may come down if he struggles as the season continues.
The only way to know is to let the season play out. By the end of the campaign, the Wild will know whether Shabanov can drive offense or is just a player who is along for the ride. For a team that has several questions to answer, Shabanov’s is low on the list but still something Minnesota must find out by the time he becomes an RFA next spring.
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