The Numbers Game: Tampa Bay Lightning Edition

Nov 28, 2011; St. Paul, MN, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Niklas Backstrom (32) makes a save on Tampa Bay Lightning forward Ryan Shannon (22) during the second period at the Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

In a new feature that I’ll be running here on Gone Puck Wild throughout the season, before each game, I will be analysing the underlying numbers for both the Wild and their next opponent to see how they match-up. Tonight’s opponent is the Tampa Bay Lightning, in Tampa..

(For more info about some of the stats and terms I use in these articles, check out my stats introduction piece).


-Here are the underlying numbers for both teams so far this year at 5v5 and 5v5 Close, along with some general statistics:


HOME RECORD  2-0-2  2-1-0
ROAD RECORD  1-2-0  2-1-0
PP% 29.0% 5th 27.3% 6th
PK% 68.0% 29th 74.1% 23rd


GF% 58.3% 7th 68.4% 6th
CF% 60.2% 1st 48.2% 21st
FF% 61.3% 2nd 45.8% 26th
SF% 63.0% 2nd 48.7% 18th
Sh% 4.5% 27th 11.7% 2nd
Sv% 94.5% 6th 94.9% 5th
PDO 99.0 17th 106.6 2nd

-5v5 CLOSE-

GF% 55.6% 10th 72.7% 5th
CF% 60.2% 2nd 50.2% 15th
FF% 61.3% 3rd 48.2% 18th
SF% 60.9% 2nd 55.2% 12th
Sh% 6.2% 25th 11.3% 5th
Sv% 92.3% 13th 95.4% 5th
PDO 98.5 19th 106.7 5th
(GF%=Goals For %, CF%=Corsi For %, FF%=Fenwick For %, SF%=Shots For Percentage, Sh%=
Shooting Percentage, Sv%=Save Percentage)

So the Wild continue to put-up fantastic possession numbers and they are dominating the opposition at ES, but are being screwed by shoddy penalty-killing (only the Oilers are worse) and a dreadful shooting percentage. Hopefully it can start progressing to the mean sooner rather than later, because I don’t know how much more stress Wild fans can take.

The Lighning on the other hand have been a poor puck possession team but are currently thriving off the back of an excellent powerplay and sky-high Sh% and Sv% at 5v5 and 5v5 Close. They look primed for some hard regression over the course of the season. It’s less a question of “when”, than “if”.


-Here are the Best 3 and Worst 3 players for each team in various statistical categories. This only counts players who have played 50% of their team’s games so far:

 5v5 CLOSE




Wild CF% Top 3

STONER (73.8%)

MITCHELL (71.2%)

BALLARD (67.7%)

Wild CF% Worst 3

FONTAINE (51.7%)

BRODIN (52.2%)

GRANLUND (53.7%)

Bolts CF% Top 3

PURCELL (67.2%)

PALAT (63.6%)

JOHNSON (62.5%)

Bolts CF% Worst 3

CARLE (40.0%)

KILLORN (41.6%)

GUDAS (43.2%)

Wild FF% Top 3

STONER (73.3%)

BALLARD (71.1%)

MITCHELL (70.6%)

Wild FF% Worst 3

GRANLUND (50.0%)

BRODIN (50.6%)

FONTAINE (52.4%)

Bolts FF% Top 3

PURCELL (62.5%)

BREWER (61.9%)

JOHNSON (60.5%)

Bolts FF% Worst 3

CARLE (34.5%)

KILLORN (36.4%)

PANIK (37.2%)

Wild PDO Top 3


COOKE (1128)


Wild PDO Worst 3




Bolts PDO Top 3

PURCELL (118.2)

BREWER (115.8)

FILPPULA (112.5)

Bolts PDO Worst 3

SUSTR (92.3)

PANIK (96.6)


Stoner and Mitchell continue to put-up remarkable numbers. Granlund has managed to get his possesion stats over 50%, which means that all Wild players are over 50%. Great effort by the team and coaches to turn what was a shoddy unit last year into a dominant team. Hopefully they get some puck luck soon to turn it into consistent winning hockey.

From the numbers, Purcell and  Brewer look like players worth watching for the Lightning. Matt Carle appears to be struggling mightily this season.


-Here are the Player Usage Charts for both teams to illustrate which players are getting tough minutes and which players are being sheltered:

Minnesota Wild


Tampa Bay Lightning


(Click To Enlarge)  (Bubble Size=Corsi On Rating. Blue Bubble=Postive. Red Bubble=Negative)


Okay, that’s all from me. Make sure you check-out Scott’s official Gone Puck Wild Game Preview before puck-drop where you’ll get his insight along with all the information you need about the game.

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey views/analysis.


*Numbers in this article courtesy of:

-Extra Skater

Topics: Advanced Stats, Clayton Stoner, Close, Corsi, Fancystats, Fenclose, Fenwick, Jonas Brodin, Kyle Brodziak, Marco Scandella, Martin St.louis, Matt Carle, Mikael Granlund, Mike Yeo, Mikko Koivu, Minnesota Wild, Minnesota Wild Preview, NHL, Pdo, Puck Possession, Regression, Save Percentage, Shooting Percentage, Stats, Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning, Teddy Purcell, Wild, Wild Game Night, Zach Parise

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