The expansion team in Las Vegas has already hired a new GM and is looking to build its list of potential players to be taken in next summer’s expansion draft. As the offseason continues for the Minnesota Wild and they look to acquire more players, they’ll need to insure that all their decision have the looming expansion draft in mind.
One of the biggest factors that is beginning to loom large in the decision making of the Minnesota Wild is next offseason’s impending expansion draft. Although the rules for expansion are not quite set in stone yet, it appears that the new club in Las Vegas will be taking one player from each team in the draft. With signings happening now and further into the summer, the Wild would be prudent to keep an eye on the effect this will have on the expansion draft.
The protection rules also not quite set, but all indications are that the protection rules will be something along the lines of teams would have be able to protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie; or they could protect eight skaters of any mixture and one goaltender. Keep in mind as well that players with no movement clauses (Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, Jason Pominville, and Mikko Koivu) in 2017-18 must be placed on the protected list.
Looking at who could be unprotected needs to be a focus when signing players now. Assuming the Wild go with the first option which allows for more players to be protected, the club would have to decide on three forwards, and two defensemen after taking into account the players with no movement clauses. Devan Dubnyk will by default be the goaltender protected, because Darcy Kuemper will be a UFA and thus cannot be protected. So as it stands now some of the unprotected will be players that the Wild have signed or are about to sign if they pick up any further players in free-agency.
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That has monster impact in the Matt Dumba talks that are happening right now. The issue is that sure the Wild can sign Dumba to a longish term deal now, but the he might not be protected. With Suter eating one of three defensive protected spots, it leaves the Wild to decide basically between Dumba, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Marco Scandella on who is protected. Looking at that group you can see Dumba might easily be on the unprotected list, so why not get something for him now via trade or at the latest the deadline if you’re just going to lose him in expansion?
On the forward side of the coin it looks just as bad because after Parise, Koivu, and Pominville there’s room for only four more protected spots. That means recent signings like Jason Zucker, Chris Stewart, and Eric Staal could find themselves on the unprotected list and would look pretty enticing to Las Vegas.
Performance depending the Wild will most likely look to keep the young players on the protected list. Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, and Erik Haula will all more than likely round out the protected list. Still say a Staal, Zucker, or Stewart has a monster year they might find themselves bumping out one of these young guns, but right now I see them having to earn the right to be in the protected list.
Also given the fact that Niederreiter, Granlund, and Haula all need new contracts as RFAs The Wild might be enticed to put Staal, Stewart, or Zucker unprotected so that they get snatched up and instantly free up $1.15 million to $3.5 million depending. That freed up cap space would obviously go a long way to re-signing one of those RFAs.
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So all this means is that the Wild are going to have to make sure to be smart the remainder of this summer and into next season with what they give up and get in trades and free-agency. Paying a hefty price for a player that they might be lukewarm on protecting doesn’t make any sense. Additionally, if a player seems like they might demand a salary that is outside the realm of what the Wild can pay, or might not sign at all they can simply put them on the unprotected list.
If you’re looking at a guess as to who Vegas GM George McPhee will pick off the Wild roster that will depend. Like any other draft it will depend on the order in the draft, the best player available, how much cap room does he have left, and many other factors. So for now it is best just to think of things in terms of protected versus unprotected (I’m sure I’ll have predictions later).
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The one thing that is for certain though is that the Wild need to start positioning themselves and making their moves with the expansion draft on their mind going forward. It’s a huge inconvenience to be sure, but with a little bit of planning the Wild can make sure the expansion draft only has a small impact on their future.