The Minnesota Wild dropped their ninth loss of the season on Thursday night. They are off to their worst start in franchise history, after a performance Marcus Foligno described as “mellow and vanilla”. Their head coach wasn’t impressed with their effort, and the crowd serendaded the players with a chorus of boos as time wound down in the 4-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins. From goaltending to defending to lack of care with the puck, it’s been a team-wide effort to their poor start, so that begs the question - how much of this is on Bill Gueren?
The financial shackles were unleashed this summer so there was nothing impeding his ability to fulfill his vision for what the team should look like. Now that the team he built, led by the coach he picked two years ago, is underperforming on the ice, how much of this is on him, and will it cost him his job?
On one hand, he had a decent summer. He was able to get his number one restricted free agent to sign a team-friendly, bridge contract. It took awhile, but he came to a long-term deal with a franchise icon, and then, the cherry on top, he locked up his number one goaltender.That’s not a bad bit of work.
On the other hand, he didn’t address the team’s biggest need - depth scoring. Injuries last season exposed the lack of depth the team had outside of the top six, and Guerin did nothing to address that other than trade for an aging Vlad Tarasenko and bring Nico Sturm back into the organization on a short-term deal.
Sturm has yet to suit up due to injury and Tarasenko has one goal at 5v5 play, and the Wild are getting crushed in terms of possession when he’s on the ice (44.03% in scoring chances and 39.66% high-danger chances). He’s not providing enough offense to offset those types of possession numbers (all four of his assists are on the power play).
Guerin had the cap space and roster spots open to improve his bottom-six, and he took a pass. He gambled on some of his young prospects stepping up to fill the roles, and to date, they haven’t. Outside of Danila Yurov, the only thing keeping some of the younger players on the roster right now are injuries. Hunter Haight and David Jiricek were already sent to Iowa once this season, only to be recalled due to injuries. They haven’t taken advantage of their second chances just yet.
For all of the excitement that Zeev Buium brings to the ice, and his abilities to move the puck to the ice, he has been on the positive side of the scoring chance ledger just four times this season. Against the Penguins, he was on the ice for 16 scoring chances against at 5v5 in just 16:45 of ice time.
It’s unfortunate that the Wild lost Zuccarello and Nico Sturm before the season started, and Zach Bogosian’s more recent history hasn’t helped. It is the GMs job to plan for those types of injuries, especially with a roster that skews older, and Guerin failed to do so. Depth was the problem coming into the season, and there is apparently no plan other than “hopefully, the kids will be alright.”
The Kaprizov Situation
Every team has its own circumstances to deal with when it comes to locking up key pending free agents. Salary cap restraints, how a player fits into the line-up, depth of prospects lurking behind said player, all of that factors into what a team can offer, and what a player will sign for.
Kirill Kaprizov was in the ideal spot to push for the deal he signed because the Wild had the cap room and the need to keep him on the roster. He is their best player (even if his turnovers haven’t helped things). It’s that simple.
Still, with every player that locks up a new long-term deal, Martin Necas is the latest, that eight-year, $17 million-per-season contract looks worse. If Guerin could have trimmed it down to $14 or $15 million it’s one thing, but to acquiesce to Kaprizov at such a huge number is something that could burn the organization down the road no matter how high the salary cap goes in the next few years. An extra two or three million to the cap next season could hamstring some of Guerin’s options to improve the team for this season and the next.
Coaching Change
Chances are that Hynes is the first one to go, but he has a long relationship with Guerin dating back to their time in the Penguins organization. He was Guerin’s pick to replace Dean Evason when the Wild’s seven-game losing streak in 2023 cost Evason his job (Minnesota was 5-10-4 on November 28th when he was fired).
Coaches are the usual scapegoat for slow starts, especially when the team is playing uninspired, inconsistent hockey. Hynes, who is 82-60-15 in his 2+ seasons with the Wild, upped his criticism of the team following the loss to the Penguins,
“It’s not about being fragile, it’s about doing the right things. It’s about having some toughness to you and digging in. Understanding when we’re in those situations that they matter. It’s not about being fragile, it’s about digging in and competing. If there’s a 50-50 puck, you want the puck or you don’t want the puck? You’ve got to outcompete them.”
At some point Hynes will have to be held accountable for the way the team has played this season. It’s possible that Guerin will give him until Thanksgiving, especially if the Wild improve with the return of Mats Zuccarello to the line-up. There would have to be some sort of sign that the team is improving, though.
The Seat is warming up, but not quite scalding, yet
It’s rare that a general manager is fired during the season, let alone just a month into it. Pierre Dorian was let go by Ottawa in November of 2024, but the Evgenii Dadonov trade debacle was a major factor in that. Owners tend to have a long leash with their GMs, since replacing them in the middle of the season can be a headache. Guerin likely has until April to save his job, but if he isn’t able to push the right buttons, he could be looking for a new job over the summer.